6 ms·

This is just incredibly frustrating and disheartening to read. How is one supposed to plan for a future in this career when your lifestyle can just disappear ov

by biohax2015 4y ago

This is just incredibly frustrating and disheartening to read. How is one supposed to plan for a future in this career when your lifestyle can just disappear overnight?

pbowyer 4y ago
> This is just incredibly frustrating and disheartening to read. How is one supposed to plan for a future in this career when your lifestyle can just disappear overnight? Plan like everyone else in your country who has to deal with this uncertainty on significantly lower salaries. Budget. Save. Trim expenditure. And enjoy your career because you chose it as a career, not because it allowed you a lifestyle.
- brundolf 4y ago
  And also don't panic, because nobody knows the future (especially in tech), despite the OP's confidence. Nobody knows the future in either direction.
  - jerf 4y ago
    I want to highlight this. I do probably a lot more "prep" than the average HNer is, but it's not out of panic. It's just a cold engineering assessment of costs & benefits. A lot of prep is just moving forward purchases and storing easily stored things, so the real cost is minimal if you have the space anyhow. And not spending all your money is a good plan anyhow; it has been for a long time and will continue to be. Even if you knew 100% the economy is fine and will be fine for the rest of your life, there's still good reason to prepare because you may have problems, health problems, natural disasters, maybe just the desire to take three months off work to prevent burnout, any number of reasons you should try very hard not to live paycheck to paycheck no matter how little you make. And then, when you are prepared, you can be more calm about a lot more things. Yes, it's possible for the Zombie Apocalypse to hit and make a mockery of all my prep... but because I'm more-or-less ready for more realistic scenarios, I'm also more chill about the possibility of them happening. And they may not, in which case frankly I won't have wasted many resources anyhow, any more than it's a waste to buy an insurance policy that you never get to collect on.
  - randomdata 4y ago
    What we do know is that the market thinks the career is risky, charging a substantial risk premium. The market isn't infallible, but tends to be right more often than not. But that also means that you need not be too alarmed. Even just one year of making the aforementioned $300,000 allows you several years of not working at all before you are making less, on average, than a typical low risk job. As you've already priced in the risk, you'll be fine. And if the market is wrong then you've gained a nice reward.
    - samvher 4y ago
      What makes you interpret it as a risk premium? My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply, and barriers existing to the supply expanding (which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build). I.e. I'd say it's a scarcity thing more than a risk thing.
      - randomdata 4y ago
        > My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply That, from an employer point of view, is certainly what makes the difference between offering a high risk premium and deciding that the work isn't worth doing. > which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build All jobs value from experience. The question the worker has to ask himself is: Where am I going to allocate my time to gain experience? One can't do everything. They have to make a choice. Tech is a risky place to allocate your time, but compensates for that by offering a premium to compel you in that direction. Tech is risky because it is all about exploring unknowns. You get periods of fruit, but you are also likely to get periods of dead ends, and when those dead ends start to accumulate people start to back away. That is quite unlike, say, road maintenance where there is a strong belief that roads will be around for the lifetime of one's career. That isn't a guarantee, but it is lower risk. Tech is known to disappear. Tech has crashed many, many times before after too many dead ends. It feels to me like we're in a dead end period. When was the last time you were excited about new tech? The WFH period during the pandemic brought some small excitement in tech emergence, but it seems we're trying as hard as possible to back away from that. But who knows? This time might be different. And if that's the case you've got your risk premium as a reward for taking the risk.
- ianbutler 4y ago
  I mean, I love software development, spend a lot of my own time on it outside of work. In fact I've been writing code since I was 11 or 12, close to 20 years now, professionally for 8 years, but I'm also very intelligent and like my lifestyle, so if that evaporated the chance that I'd continue to do professional software development, especially since many of the things we deal with day to day for pay are arguably the worst parts of software development, would be very low. This whole "its your calling" thing is how the abuse and low pay in adjacent industries, like game development, are maintained, and frankly it's BS. I'd go back to school and into something that will maintain my lifestyle.
randomdata 4y ago
One plans by charging a high rate during the good times, to cushion their lifestyle during the bad times. That is why we see those $300k salaries. Given the risk, nobody wants to do the job for less.
- vkou 4y ago
  The risk of what? Having to make ends meet on a $150,000 one? You're not exactly risking your life and limb by taking a job at a cloud firm. Demand for software isn't going anywhere, and no hiring manager at any future job will give two cares as to whether or not your previous employer's revenues were inflated or not.
  - randomdata 4y ago
    > You're not exactly risking your life and limb You are risking opportunity elsewhere. Let's say your options are working as a developer for a random Fart App startup or a government job sweeping floors that has been around for centuries. Which are you going to choose? If they both offer $50,000 per year, the choice is clear: The government job. It is the one that is almost certain to have more longevity. But if the Fart App startup increases their offer to $300,000, well, now it's a harder choice. The startup still isn't likely to last, but with $300,000 in your pocket you're not so concerned about it disappearing into the void on a whim. And if on the unheard of chance they do make it as a lasting company that spans centuries then you're in a really great position. > Demand for software isn't going anywhere Thing is, it does crater approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It is more entrenched now than it ever was, so there is some reason to think this time is different, but the market is pricing in the risk regardless. The market can be wrong, but the market likes to be prepared.
    - vkou 4y ago
      > Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. My point is that in the average case, there is ~zero opportunity cost or damage to your career, because you worked at MS Azure, instead of... Somewhere else. You cite fartapp startups that run on rainbows and free VC money, but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get, in terms of their economics and prospects. You may be bearish on them, that's fine, I can't predict the future, but I see no reason to believe that you're going to have a better life working at literally any other random software firm, during an economic contraction. There's always a few workplaces that tend to be counter-cyclical, but they are, by definition, a minority. ... Also, many government jobs are a political football, that are only as secure as the next election. The best part is that after you worked one, and had half your compensation deferred to retirement, some politician will come along, and campaign on reneging on your pay, after you've given your thirty years of service.
lifefeed 4y ago
The software industry isn't going to disappear overnight. It didn't disappear in 2001 or in 2008, despite all the concerned emails I read from my relatives. That said it's always a good idea in general to live below your means, and to be specific, not get the biggest mortgage your lender thinks you can afford.

This is just incredibly frustrating and disheartening to read. How is one supposed to plan for a future in this career when your lifestyle can just disappear overnight?

pbowyer 4y ago

> This is just incredibly frustrating and disheartening to read. How is one supposed to plan for a future in this career when your lifestyle can just disappear overnight? Plan like everyone else in your country who has to deal with this uncertainty on significantly lower salaries. Budget. Save. Trim expenditure. And enjoy your career because you chose it as a career, not because it allowed you a lifestyle.

brundolf 4y ago
And also don't panic, because nobody knows the future (especially in tech), despite the OP's confidence. Nobody knows the future in either direction.
- jerf 4y ago
  I want to highlight this. I do probably a lot more "prep" than the average HNer is, but it's not out of panic. It's just a cold engineering assessment of costs & benefits. A lot of prep is just moving forward purchases and storing easily stored things, so the real cost is minimal if you have the space anyhow. And not spending all your money is a good plan anyhow; it has been for a long time and will continue to be. Even if you knew 100% the economy is fine and will be fine for the rest of your life, there's still good reason to prepare because you may have problems, health problems, natural disasters, maybe just the desire to take three months off work to prevent burnout, any number of reasons you should try very hard not to live paycheck to paycheck no matter how little you make. And then, when you are prepared, you can be more calm about a lot more things. Yes, it's possible for the Zombie Apocalypse to hit and make a mockery of all my prep... but because I'm more-or-less ready for more realistic scenarios, I'm also more chill about the possibility of them happening. And they may not, in which case frankly I won't have wasted many resources anyhow, any more than it's a waste to buy an insurance policy that you never get to collect on.
- randomdata 4y ago
  What we do know is that the market thinks the career is risky, charging a substantial risk premium. The market isn't infallible, but tends to be right more often than not. But that also means that you need not be too alarmed. Even just one year of making the aforementioned $300,000 allows you several years of not working at all before you are making less, on average, than a typical low risk job. As you've already priced in the risk, you'll be fine. And if the market is wrong then you've gained a nice reward.
  - samvher 4y ago
    What makes you interpret it as a risk premium? My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply, and barriers existing to the supply expanding (which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build). I.e. I'd say it's a scarcity thing more than a risk thing.
    - randomdata 4y ago
      > My sense is it's mostly driven by demand growing ahead of supply That, from an employer point of view, is certainly what makes the difference between offering a high risk premium and deciding that the work isn't worth doing. > which is partly because of the value of experience, which takes time to build All jobs value from experience. The question the worker has to ask himself is: Where am I going to allocate my time to gain experience? One can't do everything. They have to make a choice. Tech is a risky place to allocate your time, but compensates for that by offering a premium to compel you in that direction. Tech is risky because it is all about exploring unknowns. You get periods of fruit, but you are also likely to get periods of dead ends, and when those dead ends start to accumulate people start to back away. That is quite unlike, say, road maintenance where there is a strong belief that roads will be around for the lifetime of one's career. That isn't a guarantee, but it is lower risk. Tech is known to disappear. Tech has crashed many, many times before after too many dead ends. It feels to me like we're in a dead end period. When was the last time you were excited about new tech? The WFH period during the pandemic brought some small excitement in tech emergence, but it seems we're trying as hard as possible to back away from that. But who knows? This time might be different. And if that's the case you've got your risk premium as a reward for taking the risk.
ianbutler 4y ago
I mean, I love software development, spend a lot of my own time on it outside of work. In fact I've been writing code since I was 11 or 12, close to 20 years now, professionally for 8 years, but I'm also very intelligent and like my lifestyle, so if that evaporated the chance that I'd continue to do professional software development, especially since many of the things we deal with day to day for pay are arguably the worst parts of software development, would be very low. This whole "its your calling" thing is how the abuse and low pay in adjacent industries, like game development, are maintained, and frankly it's BS. I'd go back to school and into something that will maintain my lifestyle.

randomdata 4y ago

One plans by charging a high rate during the good times, to cushion their lifestyle during the bad times. That is why we see those $300k salaries. Given the risk, nobody wants to do the job for less.

vkou 4y ago
The risk of what? Having to make ends meet on a $150,000 one? You're not exactly risking your life and limb by taking a job at a cloud firm. Demand for software isn't going anywhere, and no hiring manager at any future job will give two cares as to whether or not your previous employer's revenues were inflated or not.
- randomdata 4y ago
  > You're not exactly risking your life and limb You are risking opportunity elsewhere. Let's say your options are working as a developer for a random Fart App startup or a government job sweeping floors that has been around for centuries. Which are you going to choose? If they both offer $50,000 per year, the choice is clear: The government job. It is the one that is almost certain to have more longevity. But if the Fart App startup increases their offer to $300,000, well, now it's a harder choice. The startup still isn't likely to last, but with $300,000 in your pocket you're not so concerned about it disappearing into the void on a whim. And if on the unheard of chance they do make it as a lasting company that spans centuries then you're in a really great position. > Demand for software isn't going anywhere Thing is, it does crater approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It is more entrenched now than it ever was, so there is some reason to think this time is different, but the market is pricing in the risk regardless. The market can be wrong, but the market likes to be prepared.
  - vkou 4y ago
    > Thing is, it does disappear approximately every 10 years, as we've observed since software first became a thing. It slows down, along with the rest of the economy during recessions, because it, like everything else, is driven by the same market forces. My point is that in the average case, there is ~zero opportunity cost or damage to your career, because you worked at MS Azure, instead of... Somewhere else. You cite fartapp startups that run on rainbows and free VC money, but cloud providers are about as dissimilar from the fartapp as you can get, in terms of their economics and prospects. You may be bearish on them, that's fine, I can't predict the future, but I see no reason to believe that you're going to have a better life working at literally any other random software firm, during an economic contraction. There's always a few workplaces that tend to be counter-cyclical, but they are, by definition, a minority. ... Also, many government jobs are a political football, that are only as secure as the next election. The best part is that after you worked one, and had half your compensation deferred to retirement, some politician will come along, and campaign on reneging on your pay, after you've given your thirty years of service.

lifefeed 4y ago

The software industry isn't going to disappear overnight. It didn't disappear in 2001 or in 2008, despite all the concerned emails I read from my relatives. That said it's always a good idea in general to live below your means, and to be specific, not get the biggest mortgage your lender thinks you can afford.