4 ms·
I believe the idea is that with time, it won't make fiscal sense. The first wave of these will be bought in small part by early adopting owners but more likely
by wcarss 15y ago
I believe the idea is that with time, it won't make fiscal sense. The first wave of these will be bought in small part by early adopting owners but more likely by small-time transit / freight companies looking to save a buck.
Once it's a proven small-scale model, larger transit and freight systems will start using them; I'd expect ZipCar and Uber and similar services to jump on it. At this time, more and more people would be buying their own driverless car.
Now picture 20 years down the road. You're a young person who can't afford a car. Do you get a job to pay to buy a car, or do you use a service like ZipCar? Fast forward 5 years, you've got a job and you could afford a car. Do you buy one to give you "added convenience"? That's what ZipCar will have to beat. If they can get a car to you by the time you're outside your house, they are actually beating personally owned vehicles, and the closer to that they get, the less likely it is people will purchase vehicles.
- wisty 15y agoIt's mostly because no-one will pay $5k extra for a car that they perceive to be a worse driver than themselves, but a better driver than a taxi driver.
- StavrosK 15y agoDo people seriously consider themselves better drivers than the people who actually drive cars for a living?
- billswift 15y agoThere have been many studies that show that the large majority of people consider themselves "better than average" drivers. It is called Lake Woebegone effect or Illusory superiority - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_woebegone_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_woebegone_effect
- StavrosK 15y agoYes, but professional drivers are not "average".
- veidr 15y agoCertainly they do, but of course, they would think so. Still, I'd argue that this is not even that crazy. At least in San Francisco, I vastly prefer to ride with just about any colleague I've ever met than the local taxi drivers, based on these criteria: - comfort while riding (lack of abrupt motions requiring me to brace myself) - courtesy to other drivers and pedestrians - actual number of traffic accidents (colleagues: 0, taxis: 2, although fortunately both accidents were mainly property damage rather than serious injury... but still)