4 ms·

Here's Peter Zeihan saying the same thing about Russia's use of Iranian drones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToagLbv0140 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Toa

Here's Peter Zeihan saying the same thing about Russia's use of Iranian drones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToagLbv0140 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToagLbv0140 He says they're mopeds with wings, and a third rate US factory could churn them out, but Russia can't build them.

cdot2 4y ago
A lot of the manufacturing ability that we take for granted is uncommon in much of the world. For example China was not able to manufacture ball point pen tips before 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18...
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > China was not able to manufacture ball point pen tips before 2017. IIRC, the issue wasn't so much that the couldn't make them, but the ones that they could make were clearly inferior. According to this, it seems like the problem was more one of metallurgy: https://fortune.com/2017/01/10/china-ballpoint-pens-steel-japan/ https://fortune.com/2017/01/10/china-ballpoint-pens-steel-ja...
tablespoon 4y ago
> [Peter Zeihan] says they're mopeds with wings, and a third rate US factory could churn them out, but Russia can't build them. Who is he to make a technical evaluation of drone quality? Americans are very biased to assume everything made by anyone besides their first-world allies is crap, and IMHO that kind of thinking will be their undoing. Russia is adapting to sudden supply chain constraints it was obviously unprepared for, and Iran almost certainly has a lot more experience dealing with (and working around) them. Russia could have all the skill in the world, but they won't be able to build anything if they can't source some critical part for their existing designs. If Iran has the parts for their designs, they can build.
- WJW 4y ago
  Honestly they are kind of crap in the sense that they really are mopeds with wings, which have sometimes even been shot out of the air by policemen with small arms. They are decidedly not crap in the sense that the type of air defense most nations have developed so far will struggle engaging such drones cost effectively. If you use a 500k missile to shoot down a 20k drone, that is a win for the drone operator. If you don't shoot it down and it severely damages a 10m power plant, that is also a win for the drone operator. The aircraft vs air defense arms race in the past couple of decades has been towards more capable (and thus more expensive) platforms on both sides, leaving room for this kind of cheap drone on the bottom of the market. There are plenty of systems that can cost-effectively engage drones though, from old-style flak guns to other cheap drones to (in the future) lasers. It is only a matter of time before the West finds proper countermeasures.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    The last part is wishful thinking. The Germans found no counter measures for tanks in WWI and neither did the French in WWII. The only viable counter to tanks between 1915 and 1955 were more tanks as the USSR and US showed.
    - mellavora 4y ago
      Bazooka? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazooka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazooka Molotov cocktail? "the time-honored anti-tank weapon of last resort." https://www.thearmorylife.com/molotov-cocktail-vs-tank-a-history-of-this-desperate-measure/ https://www.thearmorylife.com/molotov-cocktail-vs-tank-a-his...
      - tablespoon 4y ago
        I think the key word is "viable." IIRC the Bazooka was better than nothing but not particularly effective. And your quote's characterization of the Molotov cocktail as a "weapon of last resort" speaks to its ineffectiveness.
      - 4y ago
conductr 4y ago
They could if they wanted to. They’re fighting a war and have an immediate need.
- Cthulhu_ 4y ago
  But do they have the equipment, the materials, the money and the workforce for it? What they can import is heavily restricted; there was another article that said the chips they import now are grey market, lower grade stuff with a much higher failure rate. You can't even make a moped with wings if your chips don't even work. I guess you could make dumb drones but what's the point if they're less accurate than WW2 V1 / V2 ?
greedo 4y ago
If you follow @kamilkazani, he talks about how the fall of the USSR crippled Russia's manufacturing ability; without Western help, it's toast.
Cthulhu_ 4y ago
I mean the fact that a significant portion of its potential workers has either been drafted into the army, went into hiding or fled the country probably isn't doing them much good either.

cdot2 4y ago

A lot of the manufacturing ability that we take for granted is uncommon in much of the world. For example China was not able to manufacture ball point pen tips before 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18...

tablespoon 4y ago
> China was not able to manufacture ball point pen tips before 2017. IIRC, the issue wasn't so much that the couldn't make them, but the ones that they could make were clearly inferior. According to this, it seems like the problem was more one of metallurgy: https://fortune.com/2017/01/10/china-ballpoint-pens-steel-japan/ https://fortune.com/2017/01/10/china-ballpoint-pens-steel-ja...

tablespoon 4y ago

> [Peter Zeihan] says they're mopeds with wings, and a third rate US factory could churn them out, but Russia can't build them. Who is he to make a technical evaluation of drone quality? Americans are very biased to assume everything made by anyone besides their first-world allies is crap, and IMHO that kind of thinking will be their undoing. Russia is adapting to sudden supply chain constraints it was obviously unprepared for, and Iran almost certainly has a lot more experience dealing with (and working around) them. Russia could have all the skill in the world, but they won't be able to build anything if they can't source some critical part for their existing designs. If Iran has the parts for their designs, they can build.

WJW 4y ago
Honestly they are kind of crap in the sense that they really are mopeds with wings, which have sometimes even been shot out of the air by policemen with small arms. They are decidedly not crap in the sense that the type of air defense most nations have developed so far will struggle engaging such drones cost effectively. If you use a 500k missile to shoot down a 20k drone, that is a win for the drone operator. If you don't shoot it down and it severely damages a 10m power plant, that is also a win for the drone operator. The aircraft vs air defense arms race in the past couple of decades has been towards more capable (and thus more expensive) platforms on both sides, leaving room for this kind of cheap drone on the bottom of the market. There are plenty of systems that can cost-effectively engage drones though, from old-style flak guns to other cheap drones to (in the future) lasers. It is only a matter of time before the West finds proper countermeasures.
- thrown_22 4y ago
  The last part is wishful thinking. The Germans found no counter measures for tanks in WWI and neither did the French in WWII. The only viable counter to tanks between 1915 and 1955 were more tanks as the USSR and US showed.
  - mellavora 4y ago
    Bazooka? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazooka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazooka Molotov cocktail? "the time-honored anti-tank weapon of last resort." https://www.thearmorylife.com/molotov-cocktail-vs-tank-a-history-of-this-desperate-measure/ https://www.thearmorylife.com/molotov-cocktail-vs-tank-a-his...
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      I think the key word is "viable." IIRC the Bazooka was better than nothing but not particularly effective. And your quote's characterization of the Molotov cocktail as a "weapon of last resort" speaks to its ineffectiveness.
    - 4y ago

conductr 4y ago

They could if they wanted to. They’re fighting a war and have an immediate need.

Cthulhu_ 4y ago
But do they have the equipment, the materials, the money and the workforce for it? What they can import is heavily restricted; there was another article that said the chips they import now are grey market, lower grade stuff with a much higher failure rate. You can't even make a moped with wings if your chips don't even work. I guess you could make dumb drones but what's the point if they're less accurate than WW2 V1 / V2 ?

greedo 4y ago

If you follow @kamilkazani, he talks about how the fall of the USSR crippled Russia's manufacturing ability; without Western help, it's toast.

Cthulhu_ 4y ago

I mean the fact that a significant portion of its potential workers has either been drafted into the army, went into hiding or fled the country probably isn't doing them much good either.