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> How, specifically, will AI be better at that than humans? AI cannot even reliably autocorrect this comment as I’m typing it. How is it going to convince Jack

> How, specifically, will AI be better at that than humans? AI cannot even reliably autocorrect this comment as I’m typing it. How is it going to convince Jack to switch his shift and come in to cover open on Sunday because Jill’s sister was in a car accident and Jill is watching her niece? How’s AI going to do that better than a fellow human? This is a solved problem by using surge pricing. It's a widespread practice with contractors today. I don't know how much automated vs human reasoning figures into how say Instacart or Uber adjust their rates currently. But I think it's reasonable to predict that kind of process becoming self-governing over time. There, AI would exceed managerial performance over time and at scale. It'll still be subject to oversight and guardrails obviously.

mjr00 4y ago
> This is a solved problem by using surge pricing. It's a widespread practice with contractors today. This solves the problem for situations where you have a large pool of workers with elastic hours for a job which requires effectively zero training... which is basically Uber, food delivery, and not much else. Even something as entry-level as a Starbucks barista you can't just pull a random person off the street and expect them to open on their first shift. You really think surge pricing somehow is going to solve shift scheduling problems for flight attendants? Nurses? Operators of specialized heavy machinery at a meat packing plant?
- jlund-molfese 4y ago
  I think so. Once upon a time, I worked at Best Buy for $10/hr. It wasn’t complicated work, but did require a few days of training. There’s no way I’d have volunteered to go in on my day off at $10/hr, if I was already in the middle of something else. But for $15/hr or $20/hr, I’d be way more amenable than some human asking nicely without any bonus pay. For doctors or those who already work many hours for high pay, surge pricing doesn’t seem like a great solution though.
- andrewjl 4y ago
  > Even something as entry-level as a Starbucks barista In the UK many similar positions use contractors working "zero hour contracts" with no guaranteed hours. In other words "a large pool of workers with elastic hours for a job which requires effectively" net zero training. > Nurses? The demographic trends and labor shortages in much of the world I think will be a forcing function to automate and rationalize healthcare to a greater extent than it is now. The only reason I don't think that'll impact quality of care that much is because that quality is degraded today. > Operators of specialized heavy machinery at a meat packing plant? Not a factor given labor shortages and automation trends. And even if meat packing plants can't automate, they won't function without underpriced labor or sizable price hikes. Labor shortages are already baked into the demographic cake worldwide starting a few decades from now.
- vidarh 4y ago
  I've reviewed pitch decks and talked to founders of at least half a dozen companies aiming to provide pooling of workers with elastic hours across employers. Including for hospitality, which has extremely high rates of attrition, and so while you can't just pull a random person off the street you can often pull a random person with experience from the same or similar chain from a database if you need urgent cover. Reason I think at least some of those types of companies will make it is that I used to work on CRMs for hospitality, and saw the amount of staff moving back and forth between venues and different companies on our client list. It won't replace middle management, but it may well reduce the numbers in larger chains.

mjr00 4y ago

> This is a solved problem by using surge pricing. It's a widespread practice with contractors today. This solves the problem for situations where you have a large pool of workers with elastic hours for a job which requires effectively zero training... which is basically Uber, food delivery, and not much else. Even something as entry-level as a Starbucks barista you can't just pull a random person off the street and expect them to open on their first shift. You really think surge pricing somehow is going to solve shift scheduling problems for flight attendants? Nurses? Operators of specialized heavy machinery at a meat packing plant?

jlund-molfese 4y ago
I think so. Once upon a time, I worked at Best Buy for $10/hr. It wasn’t complicated work, but did require a few days of training. There’s no way I’d have volunteered to go in on my day off at $10/hr, if I was already in the middle of something else. But for $15/hr or $20/hr, I’d be way more amenable than some human asking nicely without any bonus pay. For doctors or those who already work many hours for high pay, surge pricing doesn’t seem like a great solution though.
andrewjl 4y ago
> Even something as entry-level as a Starbucks barista In the UK many similar positions use contractors working "zero hour contracts" with no guaranteed hours. In other words "a large pool of workers with elastic hours for a job which requires effectively" net zero training. > Nurses? The demographic trends and labor shortages in much of the world I think will be a forcing function to automate and rationalize healthcare to a greater extent than it is now. The only reason I don't think that'll impact quality of care that much is because that quality is degraded today. > Operators of specialized heavy machinery at a meat packing plant? Not a factor given labor shortages and automation trends. And even if meat packing plants can't automate, they won't function without underpriced labor or sizable price hikes. Labor shortages are already baked into the demographic cake worldwide starting a few decades from now.
vidarh 4y ago
I've reviewed pitch decks and talked to founders of at least half a dozen companies aiming to provide pooling of workers with elastic hours across employers. Including for hospitality, which has extremely high rates of attrition, and so while you can't just pull a random person off the street you can often pull a random person with experience from the same or similar chain from a database if you need urgent cover. Reason I think at least some of those types of companies will make it is that I used to work on CRMs for hospitality, and saw the amount of staff moving back and forth between venues and different companies on our client list. It won't replace middle management, but it may well reduce the numbers in larger chains.