This failure rate suggests a reason the social sciences don’t “lead anywhere”: If you try to build a theorem off of two earlier results, but these each only ha

This failure rate suggests a reason the social sciences don’t “lead anywhere”: If you try to build a theorem off of two earlier results, but these each only have probability p of being right, then the chance your new theorem is correct goes like p^2. For small p this means deductions based on combining results are very small.