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Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%
- metadat 4y agohttps://archive.ph/C7REn https://archive.ph/C7REn Has bloomberg claimed to know the future 1 year in advance with 100% probability before?
- codefreeordie 4y ago"now" is "within one year", and we're already in a recession, so they don't need to predict much.
- roflyear 4y agoHow are we already in a recession?
- phi-y 4y ago2 quarters of negative GDP growth is the textbook definition of a recession, and we have had 2
- roflyear 4y agoThe forecast for this quarter is around 3% GDP growth (annualized) - how does that put us "in a recession" right now? Doesn't that mean the recession is over?
- codefreeordie 4y agoWell, if we have two quarters of positive GDP growth, that would signal an end of an ongoing recession.
- slowwwclap 4y agoUS has already had two quarters of negative GDP growth. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Bloomberg is 100% right.
- stevenhubertron 4y agoIt's a common misconception because of crappy media that that alone is how to determine a recession. There was a good Planer Money on it a month or so ago. Either way the goal right now IS a recession. That's why interest rates are up but despite this we keep buying shit we don't need.
- roflyear 4y agoWhy do people keep posting this?
- lilsoso 4y agoIt's one of the textbook definitions of a recession from a first year college economics course. That is, it's a standard definition of a recession. For example, to quote the IMF: "Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces (see “Back to Basics,” F&D, December 2008). Although this definition is a useful rule of thumb, it has drawbacks." (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/03/pdf/basics.pdf https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/03/pdf/basic...) David Sacks points this issue out rather well.
- yucky 4y agoBecause the people who don't like this textbook definition being used when it's inconvenient, haven't proposed a better definition. What definition would you use to describe a recession?
- polski-g 4y agoBecause its the standard and long-since-accepted definition. That it makes the ruling party look bad is immaterial.
- norwalkbear 4y agoBy the classic definition and trends in our industries like layoffs, I think we all know it's already here regardless of the election related word games.
- roflyear 4y agoUnemployment is down. Wages are going up. Inflation is up. These are not things that happen during recessions.
- MJsGlove 4y agoOld status quo is over. Demographics are largely to blame. Can’t really do much about that
- norwalkbear 4y agoAh you kidding, hackernews shows large layoffs every other day now
- roflyear 4y agoThere are always layoffs. Layoffs don't make a recession. Do you not think people get laid off and businesses are failing during good times? Of course it happens.
- doctat 4y agoWhere does one park money during a recession?
- SamReidHughes 4y agoParticular stocks and options. Either long or short, depending on which.
- badinsie 4y agodo not buy options.
- SamReidHughes 4y agoSometimes there the probability is mispriced by a large factor because nobody's paying attention.
- heynowheynow 4y agoLTCM enters the chat. Ruble falls. AI strats say buy all teh rubles. $4 terabucks margin call. Oops.
- SamReidHughes 4y agoHey, I didn't say to use margin!
- heynowheynow 4y agoDarn! Other than magical beliefs in lottery winnings, how else would one acquire the lion's share of the world's liquid capital? I can only think of the brutal triumphalism of differential equation-like scenarios enabling a power-law, winner-takes-almost-all distribution of wealth. I'm sure these honest parties would absolutely never gamify or encourage government corruption to reduce taxes and regulations on themselves to accelerate their dominance. [Bezos likeness here counting money with a cigar and looking like he's having far too good of a time.]
- techdragon 4y agoIs it time to start using the scary “d word” yet? … depression It’s been half a year of ostrich like behaviour and borderline paradoxical (but understandable though certain lenses) stock market responses while economies around the world are sliding downhill like they are all practicing for the Winter Olympics. It’s sort of hard to look at the situation and think “this won’t end up with economic depression” … it’s looming up on the horizon as we get deeper into the reality of a global recession (can we call it a global one yet?) maybe not in the USA, but perhaps the UK, or somewhere else that feeling the current situation more acutely.
- LarsAlereon 4y agoI've been thinking about how these economic conditions, while they meet every criteria of a severe recession, are vastly different for the average person than any I can think of in modern history. In a typical recession GDP is down, unemployment is up, wages are being driven down, and companies have stockpiles of unsold inventory because nobody has money to buy things. In this recession GDP is down, we're at full employment, wages are being driven up, companies have empty inventory due to supply chain issues, and consumers are standing around holding cash waiting for someone to offer products for sale. I think GDP is down because a lot of workers retired or otherwise left the workforce at once so companies don't have enough people to get work done. Supply chain issues mean manufacturers and retailers don't have products to sell, which also impacts GDP. Cost of living is certainly up which impacts the average person, but honestly that wouldn't be such a problem if companies were setting wages in response to market conditions as opposed to stubbornly keeping them low as if a bunch of people who want to work for minimum wage will magically appear.
- theknocker 4y ago