5 ms·

“US Navy should prepare for an invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year”

19 points by etiam 4y ago

Ancalagon 4y ago
This is... very scary.
jollyllama 4y ago
Botch a few wars and rival empires will notice. The question is: can we find a way to escape the Thucydides Trap?
readonthegoapp 4y ago
i think it's interesting how this is playing out. i would have thought there was no way that Taiwan could stop a China takeover, but i guess I forgot how dedicated the US was to continued world domination -- even at the risk of ending the world. too bad US-Americans don't know about JFK pulling our nukes out of Turkey during the 'Cuban' missile crisis - prob makes Americans sleep more comfortably than we should - which is why most Americans are like, "Nukes? Pffft. We'll just threaten them to not use nukes to end the world else we'll end the world even more." watching our weapons toy with Russia has been enlightening. one thing i'm sure China has learned -- if they decide to physically attack, they best go all in, else they end up like Russia. China, if they wanted to use force, should have probably moved already, while US attention was at least slightly distracted towards Russia. so, on that point, i'd agree with the Admiral. Now, China faces a growing US/Aukus/etc. threat every day that passes. a militarily-stronger Taiwan, a more galvanized anti-China public opinion in the US (US mass media leading the way, as usual), US growing more independent of China in chips and manufacturing every day, more and stronger pro-US military alliances in asia, better-tuned sanctions and other financial controls over China, growing awareness/vigilance among the Taiwanese population, an aging of the pro-China population of Taiwan, etc. Russia or the US could still end the world before we get a chance to hash out Taiwan, so there's always that.
dirtyid 4y ago
>A top US Navy official said on Wednesday that a mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place as soon as this year, based partly on comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping at a major political conference in Beijing this week. Such comment, even partly, does not exist. >“What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” he said in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council. True, but actual deadline is like 2049, modernization/reform is only half done, and if anything PRC still needs to wait 5 years to finish building 1000+ nukes for deterrance and for USN ships to decommission during decade of concern. Like there's no factors that presses for TW invasion THIS YEAR OR NEXT unless there's TW/US independance drama during 2023-24 election cycles. >“So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out.” Note the 2027 "window" is purely a fabrication of US blob, conveniently timed for another election cycle. Just in terms of pure incentives, it seems like US is the one itching for an early war since current analysis suggest they might have chance in near short term but medium/long term regional force balance will favour PRC. Hence the eroding of strategic ambiguity etc. That said 2022/2023 window, AGAIN THAT'S RIGHT NOW, there's essentially nothing US can do to bolster posture in that timeframe. I surmise this is hyperbole testimony to fish for the emergency procurement powers Pentagon wants to support UKR war... but really for TW since MIC is not producing enough for both.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  "That said 2022/2023 window, AGAIN THAT'S RIGHT NOW, there's essentially nothing US can do to bolster posture in that timeframe." Simply moving most of our attack subs into the theater after full weapons loadouts would massively if "silently" bolster our posture. We could also shift surface assets there. We're not going to be able to build many more Standard missiles in a 2.5 month timeframe, but we could move a lot of Arleigh Burke class destroyers into the theater and extending all the way to Guam. We might have some anti-missile equipment we could move to that island, don't know how much the war in the Ukraine has drained those. That's just off the top of my head before I go to sleep, I'm sure there's lots ore.
  - 4y ago

19 points by etiam 4y ago

Ancalagon 4y ago

This is... very scary.

jollyllama 4y ago

Botch a few wars and rival empires will notice. The question is: can we find a way to escape the Thucydides Trap?

readonthegoapp 4y ago

i think it's interesting how this is playing out. i would have thought there was no way that Taiwan could stop a China takeover, but i guess I forgot how dedicated the US was to continued world domination -- even at the risk of ending the world. too bad US-Americans don't know about JFK pulling our nukes out of Turkey during the 'Cuban' missile crisis - prob makes Americans sleep more comfortably than we should - which is why most Americans are like, "Nukes? Pffft. We'll just threaten them to not use nukes to end the world else we'll end the world even more." watching our weapons toy with Russia has been enlightening. one thing i'm sure China has learned -- if they decide to physically attack, they best go all in, else they end up like Russia. China, if they wanted to use force, should have probably moved already, while US attention was at least slightly distracted towards Russia. so, on that point, i'd agree with the Admiral. Now, China faces a growing US/Aukus/etc. threat every day that passes. a militarily-stronger Taiwan, a more galvanized anti-China public opinion in the US (US mass media leading the way, as usual), US growing more independent of China in chips and manufacturing every day, more and stronger pro-US military alliances in asia, better-tuned sanctions and other financial controls over China, growing awareness/vigilance among the Taiwanese population, an aging of the pro-China population of Taiwan, etc. Russia or the US could still end the world before we get a chance to hash out Taiwan, so there's always that.

dirtyid 4y ago

>A top US Navy official said on Wednesday that a mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place as soon as this year, based partly on comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping at a major political conference in Beijing this week. Such comment, even partly, does not exist. >“What we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it,” he said in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council. True, but actual deadline is like 2049, modernization/reform is only half done, and if anything PRC still needs to wait 5 years to finish building 1000+ nukes for deterrance and for USN ships to decommission during decade of concern. Like there's no factors that presses for TW invasion THIS YEAR OR NEXT unless there's TW/US independance drama during 2023-24 election cycles. >“So when we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule it out.” Note the 2027 "window" is purely a fabrication of US blob, conveniently timed for another election cycle. Just in terms of pure incentives, it seems like US is the one itching for an early war since current analysis suggest they might have chance in near short term but medium/long term regional force balance will favour PRC. Hence the eroding of strategic ambiguity etc. That said 2022/2023 window, AGAIN THAT'S RIGHT NOW, there's essentially nothing US can do to bolster posture in that timeframe. I surmise this is hyperbole testimony to fish for the emergency procurement powers Pentagon wants to support UKR war... but really for TW since MIC is not producing enough for both.

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
"That said 2022/2023 window, AGAIN THAT'S RIGHT NOW, there's essentially nothing US can do to bolster posture in that timeframe." Simply moving most of our attack subs into the theater after full weapons loadouts would massively if "silently" bolster our posture. We could also shift surface assets there. We're not going to be able to build many more Standard missiles in a 2.5 month timeframe, but we could move a lot of Arleigh Burke class destroyers into the theater and extending all the way to Guam. We might have some anti-missile equipment we could move to that island, don't know how much the war in the Ukraine has drained those. That's just off the top of my head before I go to sleep, I'm sure there's lots ore.
- 4y ago