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> Again this isn't a settled claim. Automation probably had more to do with the shift in workforce. Moreover all advanced economies have shifted to more service

by juve1996 4y ago

> Again this isn't a settled claim. Automation probably had more to do with the shift in workforce. Moreover all advanced economies have shifted to more service work, without necessarily experiencing some of the same difficulties as the US. I don't buy it - US manufacturing simply wasn't competitive with overseas prices. If it was just automation, it would still be here - only automated. It's not.

twoodfin 4y ago
On a dollar-of-stuff-produced basis, US manufacturing has continued to grow and remains only a fraction behind China: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor... It’s the jobs that went away, not the manufacturing sector or the dollars.
- juve1996 4y ago
  From the article: "Manufacturing is enjoying a resurgence in the United States. After years of falling output and a diminishing percentage of the labor force, the last few years have seen renewed growth." Resurgence implies it was not great for a long time. To add - now that automation makes us competitive with cheap overseas labor, it makes sense to invest. It didn't make sense to ivnst in 1975 - hence, the rust belt.
  - twoodfin 4y ago
    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manu...
    - juve1996 4y ago
      These numbers are more in my favor than yours. It's rapidly shrinking in terms of GDP. Sure, the world economy is growing, thus the rising tide lifts all boats - but compared to competitors, the US is doing quite poorly and losing global share quite rapidly. If your automation argument was true, this would not have happened - output would have increased exponentially and we wouldn't have lost share. Automation is making it more economical now - but that's a recent development, after the decimation of the American middle class.
      - twoodfin 4y ago
        American manufacturing is very much “still here”, not unlike, say, American agriculture, despite also being crowded out of GDP by other growing sectors. So I’m not sure which claim we’re arguing about.
        juve1996 4y ago
        Still waiting for you to explain global share. Still waiting for you to realize your time scales are 30 years off. I'll always be waiting. Best of luck!
        JAlexoid 4y ago
        You moved the goalpost here, buddy. American manufacturing grew in the last 20 years.(and probably before that) Automation didn't produce the increase in jobs, to match population growth... But a claim that US manufacturing shrunk is false. No one in this thread made a claim, including you, that this is about "global scale". You just threw in this argument to avoid accepting the fact that you're wrong.
0xBDB 4y ago
"If it was just automation, it would still be here - only automated. It's not." It is though. The U.S. steel industry which everyone thinks is dead, for example, is producing at about 70% of its all-time peak. It's just doing it with 15% or less of the peak workforce. And the current numbers represent about 5% of world steel production - which is consistent with our population, just not with the fact that we once produced the majority of the world's steel. https://blog.boydmetals.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-the-american-steel-industry https://blog.boydmetals.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-t...

twoodfin 4y ago

On a dollar-of-stuff-produced basis, US manufacturing has continued to grow and remains only a fraction behind China: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor... It’s the jobs that went away, not the manufacturing sector or the dollars.

juve1996 4y ago
From the article: "Manufacturing is enjoying a resurgence in the United States. After years of falling output and a diminishing percentage of the labor force, the last few years have seen renewed growth." Resurgence implies it was not great for a long time. To add - now that automation makes us competitive with cheap overseas labor, it makes sense to invest. It didn't make sense to ivnst in 1975 - hence, the rust belt.
- twoodfin 4y ago
  https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manu...
  - juve1996 4y ago
    These numbers are more in my favor than yours. It's rapidly shrinking in terms of GDP. Sure, the world economy is growing, thus the rising tide lifts all boats - but compared to competitors, the US is doing quite poorly and losing global share quite rapidly. If your automation argument was true, this would not have happened - output would have increased exponentially and we wouldn't have lost share. Automation is making it more economical now - but that's a recent development, after the decimation of the American middle class.
    - twoodfin 4y ago
      American manufacturing is very much “still here”, not unlike, say, American agriculture, despite also being crowded out of GDP by other growing sectors. So I’m not sure which claim we’re arguing about.
      - juve1996 4y ago
        Still waiting for you to explain global share. Still waiting for you to realize your time scales are 30 years off. I'll always be waiting. Best of luck!
        JAlexoid 4y ago
        You moved the goalpost here, buddy. American manufacturing grew in the last 20 years.(and probably before that) Automation didn't produce the increase in jobs, to match population growth... But a claim that US manufacturing shrunk is false. No one in this thread made a claim, including you, that this is about "global scale". You just threw in this argument to avoid accepting the fact that you're wrong.

0xBDB 4y ago

"If it was just automation, it would still be here - only automated. It's not." It is though. The U.S. steel industry which everyone thinks is dead, for example, is producing at about 70% of its all-time peak. It's just doing it with 15% or less of the peak workforce. And the current numbers represent about 5% of world steel production - which is consistent with our population, just not with the fact that we once produced the majority of the world's steel. https://blog.boydmetals.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-the-american-steel-industry https://blog.boydmetals.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-t...