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Ties with Russia were growing until they decided to start annexing other countries. You can’t cozy up to someone who is literally annexing their neighbors. Germ

by wil421 4y ago

Ties with Russia were growing until they decided to start annexing other countries. You can’t cozy up to someone who is literally annexing their neighbors. Germany is finding this out the hard way.

klpot 4y ago
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  > If Trump/Merkel had been in power, the war might not have happened in the first place. Sure, just like Neville Chamberlain prevented the German-Czechoslovakian war.
  - roenxi 4y ago
    You know what worked even worse? Not taking the Germans seriously after WWI and trying to destabilise their country - much like what the US strategy appears to be when dealing with the world power with the largest nuclear arsenal. The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler are lower than the odds of the US installing a Hitler in Russia with some sort of ill-advised regime change exercise or economic pressure campaign. The strategy that has worked multiple times is encouraging economic prosperity as soon as possible, and promoting stable government even if they aren't very good. Long lived dictators generally aren't interested in stirring up major catastrophes that will lead to them dying. And if the US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow the Russian army would probably not be in Ukraine today, following similar logic. There is no need to start fighting if there was no threat and the Ukraine government had held together through 2014.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      > Not taking the Germans seriously after WWI and trying to destabilise their country... Yes, it's widely regarded as a mistake to be punitive to the replacement regime after you win the war. The Marshall Plan is the new model. If the Russians throw out Putin, we should have a similar plan in place. > The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler... are a hundred percent, as he's already performed acts of genocide in Ukraine. I hope he takes Hitler's final decisions to heart, though. > And if the US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow... Russia just triggered the most significant expansion of NATO's borders in years via their actions, and their invasion of Ukraine brings the Russian border even closer to NATO. The idea that Russia gets to tell countries like Poland they can't make alliances is lunacy, too. Bullies love to isolate their potential victims from friends.
    - pjc50 4y ago
      This is pretty much an argument against democracy, isn't it? The idea that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych should have been left in power against the wishes of the Ukranian people because he was a convenient puppet leader for Russia. > The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler This has already happened with the level of war crimes in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
      - roenxi 4y ago
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Democracy is better than all the other forms of government, but democracy in Ukraine it isn't worth getting everyone killed for and ratcheting up nuclear tensions. The Ukranians - whose opinion seems most relevant in this decision - seem to disagree. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-victory-poll-gallup/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-vict... Giving in to nuclear blackmail when Russia takes a chunk of someone else's country encourages the taking of more chunks in the future. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was motivated by the West's inaction when Russia took part of Georgia, Moldova, the Donbas, and Crimea in fairly rapid succession.
        roenxi 4y ago
        The Ukrainians don't really have the power to have a say in this situation. Sucks to be them, but he people claiming to be acting in their interests are making them suffer even more. And... Washington Post, Washington, D.C metro area: "We asked the Ukrainians and they are 70% on board with our strategy of turning their country into a war-torn hellscape. US government, we're^^W^W^W you're great!" I literally do not believe the WP on this topic. The US media's record on matters of war is sketchy at the best of times. We don't even know what the actual question posed in the poll was, because we do not speak the local language.
        4y ago
    - igravious 4y ago
      Hey @roexni, But every conflict must be compared to WWII (in which we are the good guys and the other side is literally Hitler) don'tcha know? This sort of reductive simplistic childish thinking is going to be the undoing of the Collective West, you can't wish a state of affairs into being no matter how much you desire and no matter how much you propagandize your own populous. Fair play to you for speaking out. === crickets from HN about the biggest news in tech at the moment: https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1582646512202395648 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1582646512202395648 “This is real: Masha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and a bunch of other senators sent a letter to Biden "demanding he act quickly to prevent Huawei building the [PXW] semiconductor plant." The plant in question is... in Shenzhen, China!“ and https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/17/export-controls-us-china-chips/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/17/export-... Western suppliers cut ties with Chinese chipmakers as U.S. curbs bite Export controls aim to deprive China of equipment and software it needs to manufacture high-end chips with military applications === prediction: this spells the beginning of the end for the so-called West's dominance in high-tech semiconductor manufacturing
    - Isinlor 4y ago
      My country, Poland, has been under Russian occupation one way or another for the past 200 years. After WWI we had to fight with them to establish our border. We managed 20 years of peace before they allied with Hitler and attacked as again. Last Russian soldiers left Poland in 1993. > if US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow They would be in Poland right now. Completely unwelcomed. With me at the front lines. (I was born 40km from Kaliningrad) Also, US was not marching anywhere. We wanted to join NATO and EU. Central and Eastern Europeans have agency and goals independent from USA. > There is no need to start fighting if there was no threat and the Ukraine government had held together through 2014. Russian were string trouble in split Ukraine long before that. The biggest issue with Ukraine for Russians was neighborhood of EU and prosperous Poland. In 1991 after collapse of Soviet Union Polish and Ukrainian economies were exactly the same size. Last year Polish economy was 3 times bigger than Ukrainians. Ukrainians are associating success of Poland with the EU membership and related reforms. And again people, dammit, have agency. We want prosperity and security. WE DO NOT WANT TO BE BUFFER STATES. Also, 2014 revolution was over joining EU, not NATO. Ukrainians were not that excited about NATO in 2014 until Russia invaded them. Then they decided to put the goal of joining NATO into constitution.
roenxi 4y ago
- superchroma 4y ago
  "If that had been the response, everyone - potentially including the people in Ukraine - would be quite a lot better off than they are now" This is a vile thing to say. All those bodies in mass graves, tortured and beaten are evidence of the opposite.
- threeseed 4y ago
  > But an even better response would have been engagement around 5-6 years ago to keep everyone calm and the armies staying home. This is naive thinking. Putin has been destabilising, manipulating and annexing parts of its neighbours for decades and it was always going to continue. When reclaiming former glory is your goal talking isn't going to change anything as Obama, Macron, Scholtz etc have all found out.
  - roenxi 4y ago
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      > Putin says the goal is to deal with NATO in the first paragraph of his February speech... A week earlier they were saying there were no plans to invade Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/russia-tells-u-s-no-ukraine-invasion-planned-tass-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/russia-te... Why would you believe him immediately after a clear lie? The NATO stuff is a thin excuse akin to a playground bully threatening bystanders against intervening.
      - roenxi 4y ago
        Yes, I do believe him. When people tell you why they are doing something they are often telling the truth, especially when it makes sense. Political leaders have to tell their people what they are doing and why from time to time, otherwise things don't get done. I mean, where is your quote for why you think he is trying to reclaim former glory? When I say I think it was because of NATO there are actually quite a few Russians saying variants of things like "oh no, NATO is coming, we have to start moving the army to defend ourselves". Eg I was reading this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karaganov_Doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karaganov_Doctrine while arguing with pjc upthread.

by wil421 4y ago

Ties with Russia were growing until they decided to start annexing other countries. You can’t cozy up to someone who is literally annexing their neighbors. Germany is finding this out the hard way.

klpot 4y ago

ceejayoz 4y ago
> If Trump/Merkel had been in power, the war might not have happened in the first place. Sure, just like Neville Chamberlain prevented the German-Czechoslovakian war.
- roenxi 4y ago
  You know what worked even worse? Not taking the Germans seriously after WWI and trying to destabilise their country - much like what the US strategy appears to be when dealing with the world power with the largest nuclear arsenal. The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler are lower than the odds of the US installing a Hitler in Russia with some sort of ill-advised regime change exercise or economic pressure campaign. The strategy that has worked multiple times is encouraging economic prosperity as soon as possible, and promoting stable government even if they aren't very good. Long lived dictators generally aren't interested in stirring up major catastrophes that will lead to them dying. And if the US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow the Russian army would probably not be in Ukraine today, following similar logic. There is no need to start fighting if there was no threat and the Ukraine government had held together through 2014.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > Not taking the Germans seriously after WWI and trying to destabilise their country... Yes, it's widely regarded as a mistake to be punitive to the replacement regime after you win the war. The Marshall Plan is the new model. If the Russians throw out Putin, we should have a similar plan in place. > The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler... are a hundred percent, as he's already performed acts of genocide in Ukraine. I hope he takes Hitler's final decisions to heart, though. > And if the US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow... Russia just triggered the most significant expansion of NATO's borders in years via their actions, and their invasion of Ukraine brings the Russian border even closer to NATO. The idea that Russia gets to tell countries like Poland they can't make alliances is lunacy, too. Bullies love to isolate their potential victims from friends.
  - pjc50 4y ago
    This is pretty much an argument against democracy, isn't it? The idea that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych should have been left in power against the wishes of the Ukranian people because he was a convenient puppet leader for Russia. > The odds of Putin deciding to do a Hitler This has already happened with the level of war crimes in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
    - roenxi 4y ago
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        > Democracy is better than all the other forms of government, but democracy in Ukraine it isn't worth getting everyone killed for and ratcheting up nuclear tensions. The Ukranians - whose opinion seems most relevant in this decision - seem to disagree. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-victory-poll-gallup/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-vict... Giving in to nuclear blackmail when Russia takes a chunk of someone else's country encourages the taking of more chunks in the future. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was motivated by the West's inaction when Russia took part of Georgia, Moldova, the Donbas, and Crimea in fairly rapid succession.
        roenxi 4y ago
        The Ukrainians don't really have the power to have a say in this situation. Sucks to be them, but he people claiming to be acting in their interests are making them suffer even more. And... Washington Post, Washington, D.C metro area: "We asked the Ukrainians and they are 70% on board with our strategy of turning their country into a war-torn hellscape. US government, we're^^W^W^W you're great!" I literally do not believe the WP on this topic. The US media's record on matters of war is sketchy at the best of times. We don't even know what the actual question posed in the poll was, because we do not speak the local language.
        4y ago
  - igravious 4y ago
    Hey @roexni, But every conflict must be compared to WWII (in which we are the good guys and the other side is literally Hitler) don'tcha know? This sort of reductive simplistic childish thinking is going to be the undoing of the Collective West, you can't wish a state of affairs into being no matter how much you desire and no matter how much you propagandize your own populous. Fair play to you for speaking out. === crickets from HN about the biggest news in tech at the moment: https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1582646512202395648 https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1582646512202395648 “This is real: Masha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and a bunch of other senators sent a letter to Biden "demanding he act quickly to prevent Huawei building the [PXW] semiconductor plant." The plant in question is... in Shenzhen, China!“ and https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/17/export-controls-us-china-chips/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/17/export-... Western suppliers cut ties with Chinese chipmakers as U.S. curbs bite Export controls aim to deprive China of equipment and software it needs to manufacture high-end chips with military applications === prediction: this spells the beginning of the end for the so-called West's dominance in high-tech semiconductor manufacturing
  - Isinlor 4y ago
    My country, Poland, has been under Russian occupation one way or another for the past 200 years. After WWI we had to fight with them to establish our border. We managed 20 years of peace before they allied with Hitler and attacked as again. Last Russian soldiers left Poland in 1993. > if US hadn't spent the last few decades marching NATO's borders towards Moscow They would be in Poland right now. Completely unwelcomed. With me at the front lines. (I was born 40km from Kaliningrad) Also, US was not marching anywhere. We wanted to join NATO and EU. Central and Eastern Europeans have agency and goals independent from USA. > There is no need to start fighting if there was no threat and the Ukraine government had held together through 2014. Russian were string trouble in split Ukraine long before that. The biggest issue with Ukraine for Russians was neighborhood of EU and prosperous Poland. In 1991 after collapse of Soviet Union Polish and Ukrainian economies were exactly the same size. Last year Polish economy was 3 times bigger than Ukrainians. Ukrainians are associating success of Poland with the EU membership and related reforms. And again people, dammit, have agency. We want prosperity and security. WE DO NOT WANT TO BE BUFFER STATES. Also, 2014 revolution was over joining EU, not NATO. Ukrainians were not that excited about NATO in 2014 until Russia invaded them. Then they decided to put the goal of joining NATO into constitution.

roenxi 4y ago

superchroma 4y ago
"If that had been the response, everyone - potentially including the people in Ukraine - would be quite a lot better off than they are now" This is a vile thing to say. All those bodies in mass graves, tortured and beaten are evidence of the opposite.
threeseed 4y ago
> But an even better response would have been engagement around 5-6 years ago to keep everyone calm and the armies staying home. This is naive thinking. Putin has been destabilising, manipulating and annexing parts of its neighbours for decades and it was always going to continue. When reclaiming former glory is your goal talking isn't going to change anything as Obama, Macron, Scholtz etc have all found out.
- roenxi 4y ago
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    > Putin says the goal is to deal with NATO in the first paragraph of his February speech... A week earlier they were saying there were no plans to invade Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/russia-tells-u-s-no-ukraine-invasion-planned-tass-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-17/russia-te... Why would you believe him immediately after a clear lie? The NATO stuff is a thin excuse akin to a playground bully threatening bystanders against intervening.
    - roenxi 4y ago
      Yes, I do believe him. When people tell you why they are doing something they are often telling the truth, especially when it makes sense. Political leaders have to tell their people what they are doing and why from time to time, otherwise things don't get done. I mean, where is your quote for why you think he is trying to reclaim former glory? When I say I think it was because of NATO there are actually quite a few Russians saying variants of things like "oh no, NATO is coming, we have to start moving the army to defend ourselves". Eg I was reading this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karaganov_Doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karaganov_Doctrine while arguing with pjc upthread.