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Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It
- ryzvonusef 4y ago> It all starts with the transition to clean energy, now approaching full speed with 87 countries drawing at least 5% of their electricity from wind and solar. The US hit 5% in 2011 and surged past 20% renewable electricity last year. If the country follows the trend set by others at the leading edge, wind and solar will account for half of US power-generating capacity just 10 years from now. That would be years—or even decades—earlier than major forecasts. > Successful technologies follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream. The top of the curve represents the last people to make the transition. Even in 2022, a tenth of humanity still doesn’t have electricity. > Five percent isn’t a universal tipping point. Some technologies flip sooner, others later, but the basic idea is the same: Once the tough investments in manufacturing have been made and consumer preferences start to shift, the first wave of adoption sets the conditions to go much bigger. By examining the countries that reach each tipping point first, we begin to get a sense of what to expect from those that follow. > The US is the latest country to pass what’s become a critical EV tipping point: 5% of new car sales powered only by batteries. If the US follows the trend established by 18 countries that preceded it, a quarter of new car sales could be electric by the end of 2025.
- ryzvonusef 4y agoBasically, do you believe in the power of the almighty S-curve to dictate climate adoption goals?