4 ms·

Do you have any data to back up what you're saying, or is that entirely anecdotal? If that only applies to the top 20 families in the state then I seem to know

Do you have any data to back up what you're saying, or is that entirely anecdotal? If that only applies to the top 20 families in the state then I seem to know at least half of them personally, which seems statistically unlikely. Regardless of whether wealthy people like CA because of the weather or services the state provides (although I can't think of a single wealthy person who cares about the services that California provides), there's a tradeoff between those things and cost. If you increase the marginal cost of living in California by 4.5% some people will leave. Particularly those folks like startup founders or early employees who expect to earn the bulk of their net worth on a single transaction that will be taxed at the top marginal rate.

jedberg 4y ago
It's not possible to provide data because you didn't define what "wealthy" means, and neither did I. The point is that you have to be ultra-wealthy for it to be worth picking up your whole family and moving to another state just for tax purposes.
- WalterBright 4y ago
  The people decamping from New York City to Florida for tax reasons suggest otherwise. California is already experiencing population decline as people run away from the taxes and crime.
  - jedberg 4y ago
    > The people decamping from New York City to Florida for tax reasons suggest otherwise. Do you have any data showing that is the reason they are moving and not some other reason, like the weather? > California is already experiencing population decline as people run away from the taxes and crime. The most cited reason for leaving the state is the cost of housing. It should be noted that CA has lower property tax rates than Texas and Florida and about 23 other states, so that's not even part of the cost of housing equation.
    - WalterBright 4y ago
      Here ya go: https://www.amgintrealty.com/why-new-yorkers-are-moving-to-florida/ https://www.amgintrealty.com/why-new-yorkers-are-moving-to-f... Note the #1 reason. > The most cited reason for leaving the state is the cost of housing. It should be noted that CA has lower property tax rates than Texas and Florida and about 23 other states, so that's not even part of the cost of housing equation. If the property tax rates are lower in CA, but the property is valued higher, then the total tax paid can be considerably higher than in other states. Ya gotta multiply the two to get a cost. Don't forget CA's income tax and sales tax, too. Oh, and the highest gas prices in the country, due to CA regulation and taxes.
- jamiequint 4y ago
  Say $10m+ earners. If you're making that one-time and expect it to be a good chunk of your lifetime earnings it doesn't seem all that crazy to move in order to save $1.33m, or if Prop 30 passes then 1.51m. That's a free (very nice) house in most states. https://www.wealthspire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/qsbs-state-map.png https://www.wealthspire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/qsbs-...
  - jedberg 4y ago
    If you're making that one time and you already live in California, chances are you earned it in California, and they will come after you for the taxes anyway. For example if that 10M+ is in stock that was granted to you when you lived in California, they will tax you for it anyway regardless of where you live in the US when it vests.
    - jamiequint 4y ago
      That's patently false, know a number people who were granted stock in CA and later moved. The taxation is based on the allocation ratio, which is determined by the number of days you stayed in California. Some data on migration effects of taxation in CA from the last Prop 30 that raised income taxes, and that was blunted by Obama's ATRA which added SALT deductions that are now capped. None of this even counts the secondary economic effects of driving a bunch of high-earners out of state: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349 https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349 And for what, so we can subsidize electric cars that people are buying anyway? What an asinine piece of legislation.

jedberg 4y ago

It's not possible to provide data because you didn't define what "wealthy" means, and neither did I. The point is that you have to be ultra-wealthy for it to be worth picking up your whole family and moving to another state just for tax purposes.

WalterBright 4y ago
The people decamping from New York City to Florida for tax reasons suggest otherwise. California is already experiencing population decline as people run away from the taxes and crime.
- jedberg 4y ago
  > The people decamping from New York City to Florida for tax reasons suggest otherwise. Do you have any data showing that is the reason they are moving and not some other reason, like the weather? > California is already experiencing population decline as people run away from the taxes and crime. The most cited reason for leaving the state is the cost of housing. It should be noted that CA has lower property tax rates than Texas and Florida and about 23 other states, so that's not even part of the cost of housing equation.
  - WalterBright 4y ago
    Here ya go: https://www.amgintrealty.com/why-new-yorkers-are-moving-to-florida/ https://www.amgintrealty.com/why-new-yorkers-are-moving-to-f... Note the #1 reason. > The most cited reason for leaving the state is the cost of housing. It should be noted that CA has lower property tax rates than Texas and Florida and about 23 other states, so that's not even part of the cost of housing equation. If the property tax rates are lower in CA, but the property is valued higher, then the total tax paid can be considerably higher than in other states. Ya gotta multiply the two to get a cost. Don't forget CA's income tax and sales tax, too. Oh, and the highest gas prices in the country, due to CA regulation and taxes.
jamiequint 4y ago
Say $10m+ earners. If you're making that one-time and expect it to be a good chunk of your lifetime earnings it doesn't seem all that crazy to move in order to save $1.33m, or if Prop 30 passes then 1.51m. That's a free (very nice) house in most states. https://www.wealthspire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/qsbs-state-map.png https://www.wealthspire.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/qsbs-...
- jedberg 4y ago
  If you're making that one time and you already live in California, chances are you earned it in California, and they will come after you for the taxes anyway. For example if that 10M+ is in stock that was granted to you when you lived in California, they will tax you for it anyway regardless of where you live in the US when it vests.
  - jamiequint 4y ago
    That's patently false, know a number people who were granted stock in CA and later moved. The taxation is based on the allocation ratio, which is determined by the number of days you stayed in California. Some data on migration effects of taxation in CA from the last Prop 30 that raised income taxes, and that was blunted by Obama's ATRA which added SALT deductions that are now capped. None of this even counts the secondary economic effects of driving a bunch of high-earners out of state: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349 https://www.nber.org/papers/w26349 And for what, so we can subsidize electric cars that people are buying anyway? What an asinine piece of legislation.