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What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? My theory is that the backlog is mostly a double edged sword. If the backlog turned to zero today, the Univer

What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? My theory is that the backlog is mostly a double edged sword. If the backlog turned to zero today, the Universities would flood with applications from around the world and the number of I140s would increase exponentially in the next 10 years. The backlog hence keeps expectations in check. I know plenty of friends on I140s who may not get a green card for the next decade. And yet they still plan on buying a home and starting a family in the Bay Area because now they are a prisoner of the lifestyle. Back in India they could live in the top 1% with the money they saved so far but they don’t want to go back ever. Thus the US is basically keeping its universities funded by enough international students and as long as there are open opportunities in STEM they keep issuing H1Bs and I140s. The question is whether the government cares at all to deal with backlogs or if they like the current situation. My guess would be the latter.

wobbly_bush 4y ago
> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? The two political parties can't agree on reforms for legal immigration. The current rules were written for a generation when the quantity and nature of immigration was very different.
- stjohnswarts 4y ago
  Well when one basically wants 0 immigration (except maybe multimillionaires and friends) and the other wants nearly unlimited asylum seeker openings I don't see the trainwreck ending anytime soon. On the whole though the US has a middle of the road amount of immigrants becoming citizens.
ryandrake 4y ago
> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? I would love to see a GANTT chart for all kinds government bureaucracy, not just visa approval. Everything from building permits to environmental impact studies, to issuances of drivers licenses... we just seem to accept that it vaguely takes a long time, but why? What physical actions all add up to 10 years? What actual activity does person A do, how long does it take, then what actual activity does person B then do if it's blocked on person A's work, how long between person A completes their task and person B picks up the work, and so on. Maybe I am just ignorant of the amount of time that these things actually take to approve, but I suspect the vast, vast amount of time is spent with people actually doing nothing: they're waiting for the previous step, sitting in meetings, picking their nose, doing other things besides the actual processing. How does a building permit take 6 months? It should take 30 minutes to read the application, apply some criteria and stamp the paper. Does it really just sit in a queue for 5 months, 29 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes out of those 6 months?
dboreham 4y ago
> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? The affected people can't vote.
vaidhy 4y ago
The exact reason is that US only allows for limited number of green cards(GC) in a year and each country has a limited quota (no more than 7% can go to any country, IIRC). India and China have a huge backlog of people that with the current number of GCs and the backlog, you are looking at multi-decade wait. There are some nuances here as there are three tiers in the employment based immigrant visa - EB1, 2 and 3. EB1 typically happens pretty fast, but you have to meet the criteria. 2 and 3 are backlogged to hell. On a more personal note, I feel this is part of the west trying maintain cultural and racial superiority.. but that is just my opinion.
- polotics 4y ago
  If you would be so kind as to not associate the whole of the West in your (fair) appraisal of the US of A's mistreatment of non-whites, this would be very much appreciated.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
returningfory2 4y ago
There is a quota for employment-based green cards (typically 140k/year). The number of applicants that apply each year is larger than the quota. So every year the total number of people who have applied but cannot be approved due to the quota gets larger. Because of the per-country limit of 7%, these queuing dynamics generally only affect people from countries with large number of applications (India, China). But sometimes there will be a backlog for all countries. The current forecast is that there will be a backlog in 2023 in the EB2 category for all countries.
thunkshift1 4y ago
My theory is that US favors Christian countries and population for permanent residency. The numbers support it.. but of course nothing else does, so there..

wobbly_bush 4y ago

> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? The two political parties can't agree on reforms for legal immigration. The current rules were written for a generation when the quantity and nature of immigration was very different.

stjohnswarts 4y ago
Well when one basically wants 0 immigration (except maybe multimillionaires and friends) and the other wants nearly unlimited asylum seeker openings I don't see the trainwreck ending anytime soon. On the whole though the US has a middle of the road amount of immigrants becoming citizens.

ryandrake 4y ago

> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? I would love to see a GANTT chart for all kinds government bureaucracy, not just visa approval. Everything from building permits to environmental impact studies, to issuances of drivers licenses... we just seem to accept that it vaguely takes a long time, but why? What physical actions all add up to 10 years? What actual activity does person A do, how long does it take, then what actual activity does person B then do if it's blocked on person A's work, how long between person A completes their task and person B picks up the work, and so on. Maybe I am just ignorant of the amount of time that these things actually take to approve, but I suspect the vast, vast amount of time is spent with people actually doing nothing: they're waiting for the previous step, sitting in meetings, picking their nose, doing other things besides the actual processing. How does a building permit take 6 months? It should take 30 minutes to read the application, apply some criteria and stamp the paper. Does it really just sit in a queue for 5 months, 29 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes out of those 6 months?

dboreham 4y ago

> What is the exact reason for such a big backlog ? The affected people can't vote.

vaidhy 4y ago

The exact reason is that US only allows for limited number of green cards(GC) in a year and each country has a limited quota (no more than 7% can go to any country, IIRC). India and China have a huge backlog of people that with the current number of GCs and the backlog, you are looking at multi-decade wait. There are some nuances here as there are three tiers in the employment based immigrant visa - EB1, 2 and 3. EB1 typically happens pretty fast, but you have to meet the criteria. 2 and 3 are backlogged to hell. On a more personal note, I feel this is part of the west trying maintain cultural and racial superiority.. but that is just my opinion.

polotics 4y ago
If you would be so kind as to not associate the whole of the West in your (fair) appraisal of the US of A's mistreatment of non-whites, this would be very much appreciated.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

returningfory2 4y ago

There is a quota for employment-based green cards (typically 140k/year). The number of applicants that apply each year is larger than the quota. So every year the total number of people who have applied but cannot be approved due to the quota gets larger. Because of the per-country limit of 7%, these queuing dynamics generally only affect people from countries with large number of applications (India, China). But sometimes there will be a backlog for all countries. The current forecast is that there will be a backlog in 2023 in the EB2 category for all countries.

thunkshift1 4y ago

My theory is that US favors Christian countries and population for permanent residency. The numbers support it.. but of course nothing else does, so there..