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I think people overrate TSMC are the primary motivator for the PRC, who have basically maintained the same posture toward the 'renegade province' since 1949. Th

I think people overrate TSMC are the primary motivator for the PRC, who have basically maintained the same posture toward the 'renegade province' since 1949. This is unfinished business from a civil war which never officially ended.

kragen 4y ago
I agree, but I think TSMC has also assumed a geopolitical importance it didn't have previously.
- hunglee2 4y ago
  for sure, but most opinion from the west inflates TSMC as primary motivator, its a complicating factor yes, but the PRC has been on about taking Taiwan for the past 70 years, before semi-conductors were even invented. look at the top voted comment in this thread - the narrative is some sort of escalation from Xi Jinping when unification with Taiwan is boilerplate rhetoric which every leader since Deng says at Party Congress. PRC position has not changed - commitment to unification by peaceful means, but war never off the table.
  - kragen 4y ago
    Agreed! I think there was maybe some real escalation around the time of Pelosi's visit (where Morris Chang was in attendance in her photo-op with Tsai), though, and it's hard not to see the moves in HK as threatening.
    - hunglee2 4y ago
      Chang is the leader Taiwan really needs, unfortunately he is unable to moderate Tsai. TSMC will eventually be a loser in the story that is currently being written
      - kragen 4y ago
        Yeah, I can't imagine he was happy with TSMC having to cancel all its sales to Huawei. But that wasn't really Tsai's fault; nobody is able to moderate the US, and the sanctions weren't a Taiwanese policy. I was thinking reunification was really the only path to saving TSMC, but if Chang agreed, he probably would've declined the invitation to the photo op; and obviously he knows more than I do about the issues. Instead he says reunification would destroy TSMC because of how dependent it is on overseas suppliers.
        hunglee2 4y ago
        hmmm....not sure I agree here. Tsai is not entirely a creature of the US, and has indirectly - perhaps initially, inadvertently - manipulated the US by pushing for an unendorsed independence, forcing the US to deal with a situation they hadn't before considered - a 'two china' outcome. However, now that US does sees this outcome, it cannot unsee it and is thus driving hard to secure that outcome, no doubt as a stepping stone for the long term goal of regime change in PRC As for Chang, I think status quo is his ideal outcome - de facto independence, TSMC servicing two of the biggest economies in the world, and therefore, the entire world. Not happening now though, sadly
        kragen 4y ago
        Hmm, interesting. I'll have to think about that.
        rnk 4y ago
        That was an interesting idea about TSMC's influence. But the fact that there should be two separate Chinas has only become more clear each year to me, with Taiwan's increasingly democratic and successful democracy (and China's every more authoritarian and dangerous behavior). I've thought that for 30 years should be the policy, and I'm just an average US person.
        kragen 4y ago

kragen 4y ago

I agree, but I think TSMC has also assumed a geopolitical importance it didn't have previously.

hunglee2 4y ago
for sure, but most opinion from the west inflates TSMC as primary motivator, its a complicating factor yes, but the PRC has been on about taking Taiwan for the past 70 years, before semi-conductors were even invented. look at the top voted comment in this thread - the narrative is some sort of escalation from Xi Jinping when unification with Taiwan is boilerplate rhetoric which every leader since Deng says at Party Congress. PRC position has not changed - commitment to unification by peaceful means, but war never off the table.
- kragen 4y ago
  Agreed! I think there was maybe some real escalation around the time of Pelosi's visit (where Morris Chang was in attendance in her photo-op with Tsai), though, and it's hard not to see the moves in HK as threatening.
  - hunglee2 4y ago
    Chang is the leader Taiwan really needs, unfortunately he is unable to moderate Tsai. TSMC will eventually be a loser in the story that is currently being written
    - kragen 4y ago
      Yeah, I can't imagine he was happy with TSMC having to cancel all its sales to Huawei. But that wasn't really Tsai's fault; nobody is able to moderate the US, and the sanctions weren't a Taiwanese policy. I was thinking reunification was really the only path to saving TSMC, but if Chang agreed, he probably would've declined the invitation to the photo op; and obviously he knows more than I do about the issues. Instead he says reunification would destroy TSMC because of how dependent it is on overseas suppliers.
      - hunglee2 4y ago
        hmmm....not sure I agree here. Tsai is not entirely a creature of the US, and has indirectly - perhaps initially, inadvertently - manipulated the US by pushing for an unendorsed independence, forcing the US to deal with a situation they hadn't before considered - a 'two china' outcome. However, now that US does sees this outcome, it cannot unsee it and is thus driving hard to secure that outcome, no doubt as a stepping stone for the long term goal of regime change in PRC As for Chang, I think status quo is his ideal outcome - de facto independence, TSMC servicing two of the biggest economies in the world, and therefore, the entire world. Not happening now though, sadly
        kragen 4y ago
        Hmm, interesting. I'll have to think about that.
        rnk 4y ago
        That was an interesting idea about TSMC's influence. But the fact that there should be two separate Chinas has only become more clear each year to me, with Taiwan's increasingly democratic and successful democracy (and China's every more authoritarian and dangerous behavior). I've thought that for 30 years should be the policy, and I'm just an average US person.
        kragen 4y ago