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But you underestimate our ability to downsize, turn around and build them locally on a 5-year horizon, and our ability to backtrack tensions anyway if we re rea

by xwolfi 4y ago

But you underestimate our ability to downsize, turn around and build them locally on a 5-year horizon, and our ability to backtrack tensions anyway if we re reaching a nuclear point. We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris.

nosianu 4y ago
> We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris. Only that you just taught the already aggressive ruling elite of a huge country with an abundance of resources who don't care about anyone including their own except that they need them for work and for the fighting that threatening use of nukes gets them anything they want. Moldova next - it's not EU or NATO, already very low risk for Russia, if they can get there. Which was (is) a stated goal for the current war, to get the entire south of Ukraine to take away their sea ports and to get to Moldova. They'll try the Baltic states next. Not a full invasion, just lots of little aggressive actions. Even previously they did murders in the EU, financing of radical parties out to undermine current EU country governments, supported by propaganda. I don't know how much it actually influenced US elections, but I think it's save to say they at least tried. Giving them Ukraine will be massive. They will also have lots more of the oil and gas reserves under Ukraine and around the Krim. They will also get tens of millions of new citizens, lessening the problems of a shrinking number of people available inside Russia significantly. There also are significant parts of former USSR production in Ukraine, which will all go to Russia. They will also own even more of the prime agricultural lands of Eastern Europe, which at least so far seems to suffer less than Western Europe (look at the heat maps of this summer) under climate change so it may become even more valuable than it already is. The land is some prime real estate - unlike Siberia, Ukraine is much better, you can't look at the map and think "it does not add all that much to Russia" because the value of Ukraine lands is much higher. I have no idea how you get this idea. Giving up Ukraine is really, really massive in its long term consequences, greatly strengthening Russia directly as well as showing them that the means they use actually work. This would be a gigantic loss for the West.
- ewzimm 4y ago
  This is a good comment, but rather than tens of millions of new citizens, they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. Nearly the whole population of Ukraine is involved in the war effort in some way, and it would be impossible to break this completely. The only thing that could be given to Russia with the conquest of Ukraine is the option to turn into Afghanistan instead of North Korea.
  - nosianu 4y ago
    > they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. I doubt it. Most people will be passive and will just live their lives. They will get a few for sure, but they won't be able to do all that much. It's not like the ruling elite cares if there's an occasional killing, after all, they already use that method themselves, see the list of Russian businessmen and manager deaths.
    - ewzimm 4y ago
      Not everyone would be involved in directly fighting, but there are intelligence networks, supply networks, opportunities for discreet sabotage and falsifying critical data, and many other ways that people can support a resistance movement that would continue even in a fully occupied Ukraine.
  - Const-me 4y ago
    In 1922 Russians have won the war against Ukrainian People's Republic. After 20 years, vast majority of Ukrainians who opposed the occupation were dead, scared to death, refugees in other countries, or in forced labor camps in Siberia and other remote places of USSR. I'm afraid Russians have already started re-implementing elements of the same 100 years old strategy: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/01/forcible-transfer-ukrainians-russia https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/01/forcible-transfer-ukrain...
    - ewzimm 4y ago
      This is a terrible truth, but the situation has changed in this war because everyone is contributing in organized volunteer centers. The amount of coordination is orders of magnitude greater than was possible a hundred years ago. I don’t think such a large society has ever been so fully engaged in a single purpose in history. Because the strategy is so new, it would be a mistake to assume that old tactics will work against it in the same way they have in the past. Nothing is guaranteed, but I wouldn’t bet against the Ukrainian people even in the worst circumstances.

by xwolfi 4y ago

nosianu 4y ago

> We will give Ukraine to Russia if we can save Paris. Only that you just taught the already aggressive ruling elite of a huge country with an abundance of resources who don't care about anyone including their own except that they need them for work and for the fighting that threatening use of nukes gets them anything they want. Moldova next - it's not EU or NATO, already very low risk for Russia, if they can get there. Which was (is) a stated goal for the current war, to get the entire south of Ukraine to take away their sea ports and to get to Moldova. They'll try the Baltic states next. Not a full invasion, just lots of little aggressive actions. Even previously they did murders in the EU, financing of radical parties out to undermine current EU country governments, supported by propaganda. I don't know how much it actually influenced US elections, but I think it's save to say they at least tried. Giving them Ukraine will be massive. They will also have lots more of the oil and gas reserves under Ukraine and around the Krim. They will also get tens of millions of new citizens, lessening the problems of a shrinking number of people available inside Russia significantly. There also are significant parts of former USSR production in Ukraine, which will all go to Russia. They will also own even more of the prime agricultural lands of Eastern Europe, which at least so far seems to suffer less than Western Europe (look at the heat maps of this summer) under climate change so it may become even more valuable than it already is. The land is some prime real estate - unlike Siberia, Ukraine is much better, you can't look at the map and think "it does not add all that much to Russia" because the value of Ukraine lands is much higher. I have no idea how you get this idea. Giving up Ukraine is really, really massive in its long term consequences, greatly strengthening Russia directly as well as showing them that the means they use actually work. This would be a gigantic loss for the West.

ewzimm 4y ago
This is a good comment, but rather than tens of millions of new citizens, they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. Nearly the whole population of Ukraine is involved in the war effort in some way, and it would be impossible to break this completely. The only thing that could be given to Russia with the conquest of Ukraine is the option to turn into Afghanistan instead of North Korea.
- nosianu 4y ago
  > they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. I doubt it. Most people will be passive and will just live their lives. They will get a few for sure, but they won't be able to do all that much. It's not like the ruling elite cares if there's an occasional killing, after all, they already use that method themselves, see the list of Russian businessmen and manager deaths.
  - ewzimm 4y ago
    Not everyone would be involved in directly fighting, but there are intelligence networks, supply networks, opportunities for discreet sabotage and falsifying critical data, and many other ways that people can support a resistance movement that would continue even in a fully occupied Ukraine.
- Const-me 4y ago
  In 1922 Russians have won the war against Ukrainian People's Republic. After 20 years, vast majority of Ukrainians who opposed the occupation were dead, scared to death, refugees in other countries, or in forced labor camps in Siberia and other remote places of USSR. I'm afraid Russians have already started re-implementing elements of the same 100 years old strategy: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/01/forcible-transfer-ukrainians-russia https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/01/forcible-transfer-ukrain...
  - ewzimm 4y ago
    This is a terrible truth, but the situation has changed in this war because everyone is contributing in organized volunteer centers. The amount of coordination is orders of magnitude greater than was possible a hundred years ago. I don’t think such a large society has ever been so fully engaged in a single purpose in history. Because the strategy is so new, it would be a mistake to assume that old tactics will work against it in the same way they have in the past. Nothing is guaranteed, but I wouldn’t bet against the Ukrainian people even in the worst circumstances.