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"the Covid event holds zero predictive power to newborns" If their parents, siblings, or grandparents died or suffered long-term health consequences then newbo
by pmoriarty 4y ago
"the Covid event holds zero predictive power to newborns"
If their parents, siblings, or grandparents died or suffered long-term health consequences then newborns could be affected in all sorts of ways, up to and including shortening their lifespan.
The economic impact of COVID-19 will also affect people's mortality, as fewer opportunities, less earning potential, and economic recession will affect people's health by resulting in poorer health care, unhealthier living conditions and food, and quite possibly depression -- all of which are known to affect lifespan.
So I wouldn't be so quick as to rule out any affect on newborns. It's just more complicated than merely saying that X number of newborns died directly due to COVID-19.
- credit_guy 4y agoYou are right, but all those things can't be predicted by running the Lee-Carter model, which looks at the realized mortality in the past. So, one might say, "There's a possibility future mortality could potentially be higher", this is not the statement made by Scientific American. The statement is "Our evidence tells us the mortality will be higher; it will be about as high as if we turned back time by 26 years". That is absolutely not the case. It's misinterpreting the results of a model that is applied mechanically to data that should not be applied to.