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I'm surprised any video footage at all was released, given the political tensions around this event. This looks like the most comprehensive version of the vide

I'm surprised any video footage at all was released, given the political tensions around this event. This looks like the most comprehensive version of the video (possibly the earliest released, one of the earlier and less cut than others): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vbkFzQBo6w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vbkFzQBo6w That's very thick steel. Either a whole lot of explosives or some kind of shaped charge/explosively formed penetrator (widely used in oil drilling industry to blow holes in down-well pipe to allow oil flow) must have been used, with possible further damage caused by depressurization of the pipe. As far as who did it and why? Russia seemed to be pushing Europe for a deal whereby if they went along with the annexation of the eastern provinces of Ukraine they'd open up gas supplies and end the looming energy crisis Europe faces, and a working Nordstream / Nordstream 2 pipeline was necessary for that strategy, so blowing up the pipeline derailed that strategy for months at least. As to motive on the USA side, several officials in state and energy seem to view this as a 'tremendous opportunity' to shift European gas purchases away from Russian pipelines and towards US LNG tankers (price differential there), not sure how the Qatar gas output is affected. Europe of course would have been better off pushing a lot harder for wind/solar/storage over the past two decades and getting off the Russian, American and Middle East fossil fuel teat that way, but to quote Jeremey Irons in Margin Call, "That is spilt milk under the bridge". So now what?

schmichael 4y ago
The US already sells all of the LNG to Europe that either side has the capacity to handle. It will be faster to repair the pipe than build out new LNG capacity. I don’t see how the US has anything to benefit from blowing up the pipe to inflate energy prices in Europe as it’s a significant drag on the global economy which has far broader impacts on the US economy than slowly and incrementally increasing LNG shipments would. Furthermore Russia already has 1 pipe “down for maintenance,” so clearly limiting capacity is a huge bargaining chip for them. I think it’s also worth considering Russia may have internal detractors from their current policies and blowing up a pipe removes it from the equation. It may have even been a warning to those internal detractors: “don’t speak up or we can take all the pipes off the table as bargaining chips.” Russia benefits from the pipes being a high stakes game far more than the US. But who knows. The CIA has done dumber things. I just don’t see the incentives for the US especially considering even if we could ship more LNG (it would take years) that would increase energy costs here. The Biden administration has to LOVE being isolated from the madness of Europes gas market at the moment, especially considering the elections and looming winter.
Balgair 4y ago
To me, it looks like the end of the pipe are bending outward. Meaning that the explosion must have come from inside the pipe. But, it's not a very good video and is pretty hard to tell.

schmichael 4y ago

The US already sells all of the LNG to Europe that either side has the capacity to handle. It will be faster to repair the pipe than build out new LNG capacity. I don’t see how the US has anything to benefit from blowing up the pipe to inflate energy prices in Europe as it’s a significant drag on the global economy which has far broader impacts on the US economy than slowly and incrementally increasing LNG shipments would. Furthermore Russia already has 1 pipe “down for maintenance,” so clearly limiting capacity is a huge bargaining chip for them. I think it’s also worth considering Russia may have internal detractors from their current policies and blowing up a pipe removes it from the equation. It may have even been a warning to those internal detractors: “don’t speak up or we can take all the pipes off the table as bargaining chips.” Russia benefits from the pipes being a high stakes game far more than the US. But who knows. The CIA has done dumber things. I just don’t see the incentives for the US especially considering even if we could ship more LNG (it would take years) that would increase energy costs here. The Biden administration has to LOVE being isolated from the madness of Europes gas market at the moment, especially considering the elections and looming winter.

Balgair 4y ago

To me, it looks like the end of the pipe are bending outward. Meaning that the explosion must have come from inside the pipe. But, it's not a very good video and is pretty hard to tell.