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> Against: Doesn't seem like they could pull it off This is very wrong. My brother is a technical diver, and after the blast I had a long chat with him about w

> Against: Doesn't seem like they could pull it off This is very wrong. My brother is a technical diver, and after the blast I had a long chat with him about what it would do to achieve this. After going over the location, the estimated amount of explosives needed to break the pipes, and the depth, he came to the conclusion that he could have done it with 2 friends and a budget of ~10k€. This was before these new pictures that paint a picture of a more powerful blast than he assumed, but it is still well within the capability of a bunch of very determined activists. This absolutely didn't need to be a state actor. I came out of the discussion with a newfound appreciation just how fragile a lot of our billion-euro infrastructure is, and how easy it would be to disrupt.

treis 4y ago
How is Ukraine getting explosives and divers to Nord stream without being caught? That's the issue. You'd need a fairly sophisticated spy network with experience in covert operations. I don't think Ukraine has that.
- jcranmer 4y ago
  How did Ukraine pull off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge then? They clearly have some capability.
  - treis 4y ago
    Who says they did?
    - jcranmer 4y ago
      Both Russia and Ukraine.
      - treis 4y ago
        Ukraine says it was a false flag operation: >But Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russian forces planned the attack as a pretense to escalate the war in Ukraine. >"The Crimea bridge incident gives the Russian military a convenient alibi for all of its defeats in southern Ukraine," Podolyak told Ukraine's national broadcaster. https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-attack-theories https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-atta...
- the_third_wave 4y ago
  Underwater drones would be a rather easy way, no deep sea divers needed. Just have a drone pull a mine-clearing charge (a long flexible hose filled with high explosives) and drop it next to the pipe and detonate it. These pipes lay at ~70 m depth so the drones can be wire-controlled. A small fishing vessel would be enough to deliver them.
  - treis 4y ago
    These are several inch thick pipes encased in a foot of concrete. And they made 4 holes IIRC. So we're talking probably a ton or so of explosives. That's not drag a hose behind a commercial drone. That's specialized equipment with trained operators. I just don't see Ukraine being able to pull that off.
    - the_third_wave 4y ago
      I think you underestimate the efficacy of explosives under water: ...since an underwater explosion (particularly one underneath a hull) can produce greater damage than an above-surface one of the same explosive size. Initial damage to a target will be caused by the first shockwave; this damage will be amplified by the subsequent physical movement of water and by the repeated secondary shockwaves or bubble pulse. Additionally, charge detonation away from the target can result in damage over a larger hull area. [1] The pipes have ...two layers; the inner pipe steel which is between 27-41mm thick with antifriction coating and a concrete steel outer coating between 60-110mm thick with corrosion protection... [2], far from the 'several inch thick pipes encased in a foot of concrete' you mention. They were also under high pressure, probably around 200 bar at point of attack [3]. Given that the pipes are at a depth of around 70 meters there this means they had an overpressure of around 193 bar so it would not have taken that much of a crack to cause them to rupture. Once ruptured the whiplashing effect - think what happens to a water hose when you turn open the tap but now with 193 bar of pressure behind it - would take care of the rest. [1] https://wikiless.org/wiki/Underwater_explosion?lang=en https://wikiless.org/wiki/Underwater_explosion?lang=en [2] https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/nord-stream-risk-of-gas-pipeline-leak-was-estimated-to-be-one-in-100000-year-event-30-09-2022/ https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/nord-stream-risk-of-... [3] https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html
wil421 4y ago
News outlets said it wouldn’t be possible for divers but 80m isn’t impossible for divers. The one thing that makes me think state actor is the timing of the bombs. Too close for activists to coordinate IMHO.
Defitio 4y ago
There are a lot easier targets someone can attack for undefined terror than this pipeline. The motivation should make sense, Russia makes sense, it was probably Russia. And in regards to past Russian behavior even more realistic.
- stjohnswarts 4y ago
  Plus Ukraine being found out by their lifeline countries (NATO) is wayyyyy too big of a chance to take. This was 99.9% likely to be the russians.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
tb0ne 4y ago
Danish-Swedish investigators estimated the explosion to be equivalent to 500kg of TNT. That hardly sounds like a three men job to me.

treis 4y ago

How is Ukraine getting explosives and divers to Nord stream without being caught? That's the issue. You'd need a fairly sophisticated spy network with experience in covert operations. I don't think Ukraine has that.

jcranmer 4y ago
How did Ukraine pull off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge then? They clearly have some capability.
- treis 4y ago
  Who says they did?
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    Both Russia and Ukraine.
    - treis 4y ago
      Ukraine says it was a false flag operation: >But Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russian forces planned the attack as a pretense to escalate the war in Ukraine. >"The Crimea bridge incident gives the Russian military a convenient alibi for all of its defeats in southern Ukraine," Podolyak told Ukraine's national broadcaster. https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-attack-theories https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128625322/crimea-bridge-atta...
the_third_wave 4y ago
Underwater drones would be a rather easy way, no deep sea divers needed. Just have a drone pull a mine-clearing charge (a long flexible hose filled with high explosives) and drop it next to the pipe and detonate it. These pipes lay at ~70 m depth so the drones can be wire-controlled. A small fishing vessel would be enough to deliver them.
- treis 4y ago
  These are several inch thick pipes encased in a foot of concrete. And they made 4 holes IIRC. So we're talking probably a ton or so of explosives. That's not drag a hose behind a commercial drone. That's specialized equipment with trained operators. I just don't see Ukraine being able to pull that off.
  - the_third_wave 4y ago
    I think you underestimate the efficacy of explosives under water: ...since an underwater explosion (particularly one underneath a hull) can produce greater damage than an above-surface one of the same explosive size. Initial damage to a target will be caused by the first shockwave; this damage will be amplified by the subsequent physical movement of water and by the repeated secondary shockwaves or bubble pulse. Additionally, charge detonation away from the target can result in damage over a larger hull area. [1] The pipes have ...two layers; the inner pipe steel which is between 27-41mm thick with antifriction coating and a concrete steel outer coating between 60-110mm thick with corrosion protection... [2], far from the 'several inch thick pipes encased in a foot of concrete' you mention. They were also under high pressure, probably around 200 bar at point of attack [3]. Given that the pipes are at a depth of around 70 meters there this means they had an overpressure of around 193 bar so it would not have taken that much of a crack to cause them to rupture. Once ruptured the whiplashing effect - think what happens to a water hose when you turn open the tap but now with 193 bar of pressure behind it - would take care of the rest. [1] https://wikiless.org/wiki/Underwater_explosion?lang=en https://wikiless.org/wiki/Underwater_explosion?lang=en [2] https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/nord-stream-risk-of-gas-pipeline-leak-was-estimated-to-be-one-in-100000-year-event-30-09-2022/ https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/nord-stream-risk-of-... [3] https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part3.html

wil421 4y ago

News outlets said it wouldn’t be possible for divers but 80m isn’t impossible for divers. The one thing that makes me think state actor is the timing of the bombs. Too close for activists to coordinate IMHO.

Defitio 4y ago

There are a lot easier targets someone can attack for undefined terror than this pipeline. The motivation should make sense, Russia makes sense, it was probably Russia. And in regards to past Russian behavior even more realistic.

stjohnswarts 4y ago
Plus Ukraine being found out by their lifeline countries (NATO) is wayyyyy too big of a chance to take. This was 99.9% likely to be the russians.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

tb0ne 4y ago

Danish-Swedish investigators estimated the explosion to be equivalent to 500kg of TNT. That hardly sounds like a three men job to me.