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"That last one is the economic argument: Russia had to do something or their economy would fall apart if europe delivers on their plans to rapidly reduce their

"That last one is the economic argument: Russia had to do something or their economy would fall apart if europe delivers on their plans to rapidly reduce their dependence on (russian-supplied) gas." Putin didn't have to invade! If he was truly worried about Russia's economy he could have (and should have) gone about instituting reforms/policies to encourage economic diversification and growth. I fail to see how even a successful invasion of Ukraine results in economic upside for Russia. They were doomed to fight an insurgency for years which costs money, or they're going to spend resources rebuilding a country they just fought a war in.

rzwitserloot 4y ago
> Putin didn't have to invade! If he was truly worried about Russia's economy he could have (and should have) gone about instituting reforms/policies to encourage economic diversification and growth. Yes, absolutely. Russia, 60m people (or how much is it? More even) notwithstanding, is essentially a petrostate. It was too hard to try to get the population-driven productive elements to compete against the easy resource money. I mean, Norway is right fucking there. This war is on them, entirely, for failing to prepare for the inevitable day when the natural resources are no longer enough to bankroll the entire state. But, doing it _now_ is not possible without major political upset, so the major political players, not wanting to be 'upset' out of a window (hey, you live by the sword, you die by the sword, I'm sure the political elite is aware of the usual way to deal with higher ups that need to be lesser higher up: By taking that literally) - start a war.
- phlipski 4y ago
  I don't get the feeling that the majority of the Russian Elite wanted this war. They only started getting suicided after the war started and they criticized Putin. Sure the ex-military, arm-chair warriors and nationalist delusionists wanted this war, but that's a small minority. America has it's share of crazy vocal "bomb, bomb, bomb" folks too - see John Bolton, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Pompeo etc.... Outside of Putin's delusions of grandeur for an empire that never existed I still fail to see ANY upside for Russia for this war.

rzwitserloot 4y ago

> Putin didn't have to invade! If he was truly worried about Russia's economy he could have (and should have) gone about instituting reforms/policies to encourage economic diversification and growth. Yes, absolutely. Russia, 60m people (or how much is it? More even) notwithstanding, is essentially a petrostate. It was too hard to try to get the population-driven productive elements to compete against the easy resource money. I mean, Norway is right fucking there. This war is on them, entirely, for failing to prepare for the inevitable day when the natural resources are no longer enough to bankroll the entire state. But, doing it _now_ is not possible without major political upset, so the major political players, not wanting to be 'upset' out of a window (hey, you live by the sword, you die by the sword, I'm sure the political elite is aware of the usual way to deal with higher ups that need to be lesser higher up: By taking that literally) - start a war.

phlipski 4y ago
I don't get the feeling that the majority of the Russian Elite wanted this war. They only started getting suicided after the war started and they criticized Putin. Sure the ex-military, arm-chair warriors and nationalist delusionists wanted this war, but that's a small minority. America has it's share of crazy vocal "bomb, bomb, bomb" folks too - see John Bolton, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Pompeo etc.... Outside of Putin's delusions of grandeur for an empire that never existed I still fail to see ANY upside for Russia for this war.