11 ms·

> There is a lot of evidence that points to the virus spreading from a wet market in the city, not the Wuhan lab. But proving something didn’t happen three year

> There is a lot of evidence that points to the virus spreading from a wet market in the city, not the Wuhan lab. But proving something didn’t happen three years after the fact is a challenge that may be impossible to meet. I find the anxious disclaimer about the Wuhan lab interesting, because of course there were a lot of things the lab itself could have done to clear any doubt at the time, including not muzzling researchers who worked there, and even releasing their virus database (which had been taken offline a couple months earlier, under the pretext that 'someone' had attempted to 'hack' it and has still not been made available three years later).

tlear 4y ago
- jimcavel888 4y ago
soco 4y ago
Important underline: the lab database is not available to us.
- null_object 4y ago
  > Important underline: the lab database is not available to us Genuine question, as I'm not aware that it's been made externally available to anyone - do you mean it's available to researchers around the world but not the general public? Or do you mean it's available to Chinese labs?
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    It's a dumb conspiracy theory about a rarely-used database that "went down" in September 2019 which was a smoking gun about how the Chinese knew about Covid. Except it turns out that it only came online in June 2019, it went down all the time from the view of the tracking website, was available into 2020, and has absolutely nothing useful to say about SarsCov2; https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1577401140345507859 https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1577401140345507859 I'm certain that everyone who used this as a prominent 'datapoint' for the LL hypothesis will immediately reconsider and update their priors.
    - pc86 4y ago
      I think the GP's point is that it's a dumb conspiracy theory data-point that would be incredibly easy to eliminate, and it's frustrating that it's not.
    - tripletao 4y ago
      The thread you've linked is deliberately misleading, refuting a strawman version of the "conspiracy theory". Everyone has always agreed that the server was intermittently available until Feb 2020. It's a particular database that went unavailable in Sep 2019, not the whole server. Quoting from a document written by the "conspiracy theorists" more than a year before that thread: > Batvirus.whiov.ac.cn had been online for a few years, saw a version 2 released in June 2019, went inactive for a week during the second half of August 19, before becoming definitely inaccessible (out of the WIV at least) on the 12th Sep 19. It was online intermittently after this date from mid-December 2019, and occasionally until February 2020, but was not accessed from outside of the WIV after 12 September 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_invest... Were you aware of that? If not, then you might update your priors yourself. The disappearance of that database obviously isn't proof that the WIV did anything nefarious. It continues their pattern of zero transparency, though. That might just be the reflexive secrecy of an authoritarian state; but the nature of zero transparency is that we don't know.
    - Izkata 4y ago
      Their own evidence shows the September 2019 date is correct, and that it wasn't just flakiness like previously, it stayed down for months.
eli 4y ago
That's probably true, but so is what's written in the article. A much bigger factor in the lab leak theory is that it played into various conspiracy theories and, for some people, was convenient politically. It's much easier to believe that someone you don't like created covid maliciously than that it evolved naturally thanks to a huge number of factors no one person can control.
- buscoquadnary 4y ago
  In the voice of superintendent Chalmers: A rare novel bat Coronavirus Emerged in Wuhan. Down the street from a virology institute That was studying coronaviruses That was studying novel bat Coronaviruses That had multiple breaches of safety protocol in the years leading up to it Is not where the virus originated? Skinner: Um yes "Can we inspect the site freely?" "No" "CCP a global pandemic is destroying the world." "That's just misinformation mother"
  - jacobolus 4y ago
    Except substitute “down the street” with “30 km away on the other side of a river”, and notice that everybody who got sick initially was next to the market, none of them anywhere near the lab. So the lab-leak hypothesis is: this virus created at the lab accidentally escaped to someone who subsequently only infected people on the other side of town. It’s certainly a possibility (viral transmission is irregular with high variance, and people can easily travel that distance), and the lack of transparency by the government is alarming (though not particularly surprising to folks studying China), but most of the experts who have studied it still think it’s relatively unlikely.
    - cloutchaser 4y ago
      - luckylion 4y ago
        Your understanding is that a large conspiracy of various Western and Chinese (and others?) federal institutes have conspired to uphold a fake story because the Western officials funding the Chinese research don't want the world to know that their money was somehow involved?
bayesian_horse 4y ago
- defen 4y ago
  That suggests an easy strategy for anyone who wants to shut down lab-leak discussion: just post maximally-unhinged support for it. See also "cognitive infiltration".
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    You need a critical mass of nutters to achieve any traction. I don't know of any case where someone successfully did that in reality.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- wara23arish 4y ago
  The damage done from the unchecked israeli government is objectively way worse than being called an anti-semite unfoundedly. Some western journalists like Robert Fisk lives by those values. I understand that it’s complicated to the uninvolved, but coming from the receiving side of israeli missiles, Ill wear the anti-semite badge proudly if it comes to it. People who have no real skin in the game will understandably avoid being called anti-semite even if it’s against their moral compass. I imagine i’d be one of them too if I were born in a different location. So in regards to the virus, I just wish people would stop caring about fear of association with nutjobs. I believe this causes a type of self-censorship worse than any other tech platform can do.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    You don't understand my point. It's not about equating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. The point is, once you do criticize Israel, you'll attract actual nut jobs who actually hate Jews. And criticizing Israel without acknowledging the other side's culpability can quickly cross over into actual anti-semitism.

tlear 4y ago

jimcavel888 4y ago

soco 4y ago

Important underline: the lab database is not available to us.

null_object 4y ago
> Important underline: the lab database is not available to us Genuine question, as I'm not aware that it's been made externally available to anyone - do you mean it's available to researchers around the world but not the general public? Or do you mean it's available to Chinese labs?
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  It's a dumb conspiracy theory about a rarely-used database that "went down" in September 2019 which was a smoking gun about how the Chinese knew about Covid. Except it turns out that it only came online in June 2019, it went down all the time from the view of the tracking website, was available into 2020, and has absolutely nothing useful to say about SarsCov2; https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1577401140345507859 https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1577401140345507859 I'm certain that everyone who used this as a prominent 'datapoint' for the LL hypothesis will immediately reconsider and update their priors.
  - pc86 4y ago
    I think the GP's point is that it's a dumb conspiracy theory data-point that would be incredibly easy to eliminate, and it's frustrating that it's not.
  - tripletao 4y ago
    The thread you've linked is deliberately misleading, refuting a strawman version of the "conspiracy theory". Everyone has always agreed that the server was intermittently available until Feb 2020. It's a particular database that went unavailable in Sep 2019, not the whole server. Quoting from a document written by the "conspiracy theorists" more than a year before that thread: > Batvirus.whiov.ac.cn had been online for a few years, saw a version 2 released in June 2019, went inactive for a week during the second half of August 19, before becoming definitely inaccessible (out of the WIV at least) on the 12th Sep 19. It was online intermittently after this date from mid-December 2019, and occasionally until February 2020, but was not accessed from outside of the WIV after 12 September 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_invest... Were you aware of that? If not, then you might update your priors yourself. The disappearance of that database obviously isn't proof that the WIV did anything nefarious. It continues their pattern of zero transparency, though. That might just be the reflexive secrecy of an authoritarian state; but the nature of zero transparency is that we don't know.
  - Izkata 4y ago
    Their own evidence shows the September 2019 date is correct, and that it wasn't just flakiness like previously, it stayed down for months.

eli 4y ago

That's probably true, but so is what's written in the article. A much bigger factor in the lab leak theory is that it played into various conspiracy theories and, for some people, was convenient politically. It's much easier to believe that someone you don't like created covid maliciously than that it evolved naturally thanks to a huge number of factors no one person can control.

buscoquadnary 4y ago
In the voice of superintendent Chalmers: A rare novel bat Coronavirus Emerged in Wuhan. Down the street from a virology institute That was studying coronaviruses That was studying novel bat Coronaviruses That had multiple breaches of safety protocol in the years leading up to it Is not where the virus originated? Skinner: Um yes "Can we inspect the site freely?" "No" "CCP a global pandemic is destroying the world." "That's just misinformation mother"
- jacobolus 4y ago
  Except substitute “down the street” with “30 km away on the other side of a river”, and notice that everybody who got sick initially was next to the market, none of them anywhere near the lab. So the lab-leak hypothesis is: this virus created at the lab accidentally escaped to someone who subsequently only infected people on the other side of town. It’s certainly a possibility (viral transmission is irregular with high variance, and people can easily travel that distance), and the lack of transparency by the government is alarming (though not particularly surprising to folks studying China), but most of the experts who have studied it still think it’s relatively unlikely.
  - cloutchaser 4y ago
    - luckylion 4y ago
      Your understanding is that a large conspiracy of various Western and Chinese (and others?) federal institutes have conspired to uphold a fake story because the Western officials funding the Chinese research don't want the world to know that their money was somehow involved?

bayesian_horse 4y ago

defen 4y ago
That suggests an easy strategy for anyone who wants to shut down lab-leak discussion: just post maximally-unhinged support for it. See also "cognitive infiltration".
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  You need a critical mass of nutters to achieve any traction. I don't know of any case where someone successfully did that in reality.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
wara23arish 4y ago
The damage done from the unchecked israeli government is objectively way worse than being called an anti-semite unfoundedly. Some western journalists like Robert Fisk lives by those values. I understand that it’s complicated to the uninvolved, but coming from the receiving side of israeli missiles, Ill wear the anti-semite badge proudly if it comes to it. People who have no real skin in the game will understandably avoid being called anti-semite even if it’s against their moral compass. I imagine i’d be one of them too if I were born in a different location. So in regards to the virus, I just wish people would stop caring about fear of association with nutjobs. I believe this causes a type of self-censorship worse than any other tech platform can do.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  You don't understand my point. It's not about equating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. The point is, once you do criticize Israel, you'll attract actual nut jobs who actually hate Jews. And criticizing Israel without acknowledging the other side's culpability can quickly cross over into actual anti-semitism.