4 ms·

"EU was caught off guard by Russia" You've got to be kidding me. Putin had been warning West since the Munich speech in 2007. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.o

by gdy 4y ago

"EU was caught off guard by Russia" You've got to be kidding me. Putin had been warning West since the Munich speech in 2007. [0] [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladimir_Putin https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim...

alexb_ 4y ago
Well if you've been warning someone for 14 years and literally nothing has happened, why is it unreasonable to be surprised?
- greedo 4y ago
  Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014. Pretty sure that's "literally" something happening.
computerfriend 4y ago
And yet, they were caught off guard.
- gdy 4y ago
  No, they weren't.
  - computerfriend 4y ago
    It really seems that much of the EU thought Putin was bluffing right up until the end of February. EU leaders proudly saying they had personal assurances Russia wouldn't invade again. There was incredible amounts of inaction. Only a handful of countries were shipping weapons, mostly non-EU.
    - gdy 4y ago
      Sorry, you may claim that the EU was indulging in wishful thinking, but you can't call it 'caught off-guard'.
jcranmer 4y ago
Yes, the warning signs were there, but the EU was merrily speeding past them, finding reasons to argue against all of the warning signs. NS2 is one of the most emblematic signs of this: it was clearly going to tie Germany's energy needs closer to an already-proven-unreliable partner (Russia), increase the ability of Russia to use gas transit as politics, countries like Poland and the US were screaming at the top of their lungs "THIS IS A BAD IDEA" and until February 2022, Germany was responding "it'll be fine, nothing bad will come of this." So I think it's fair to say that the EU was caught off guard by Russia, even if because of the EU's willful ignorance of affairs rather than Russian duplicity.
- gdy 4y ago
  "already-proven-unreliable" How so?
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Hell, there's a Wikipedia page listing all of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis...). One of the stated motivations for Nord Stream 2 was to improve reliability of gas to Europe in case Russia decided to cut off the gas because of a spat with one of the transit countries.
    - CapricornNoble 4y ago
      >>>Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia switched off the gas 7 years after Putin was screaming from the rooftops that the US sticking ABMs in Eastern Europe was a red line for Russia. That's Russia being an unreliable partner?
      - jcranmer 4y ago
        Russia switched off the gas essentially because a pro-Russian Ukrainian government was insufficiently pro-Russian.

by gdy 4y ago

alexb_ 4y ago

Well if you've been warning someone for 14 years and literally nothing has happened, why is it unreasonable to be surprised?

greedo 4y ago
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014. Pretty sure that's "literally" something happening.

computerfriend 4y ago

And yet, they were caught off guard.

gdy 4y ago
No, they weren't.
- computerfriend 4y ago
  It really seems that much of the EU thought Putin was bluffing right up until the end of February. EU leaders proudly saying they had personal assurances Russia wouldn't invade again. There was incredible amounts of inaction. Only a handful of countries were shipping weapons, mostly non-EU.
  - gdy 4y ago
    Sorry, you may claim that the EU was indulging in wishful thinking, but you can't call it 'caught off-guard'.

jcranmer 4y ago

Yes, the warning signs were there, but the EU was merrily speeding past them, finding reasons to argue against all of the warning signs. NS2 is one of the most emblematic signs of this: it was clearly going to tie Germany's energy needs closer to an already-proven-unreliable partner (Russia), increase the ability of Russia to use gas transit as politics, countries like Poland and the US were screaming at the top of their lungs "THIS IS A BAD IDEA" and until February 2022, Germany was responding "it'll be fine, nothing bad will come of this." So I think it's fair to say that the EU was caught off guard by Russia, even if because of the EU's willful ignorance of affairs rather than Russian duplicity.

gdy 4y ago
"already-proven-unreliable" How so?
- jcranmer 4y ago
  Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Hell, there's a Wikipedia page listing all of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_dis...). One of the stated motivations for Nord Stream 2 was to improve reliability of gas to Europe in case Russia decided to cut off the gas because of a spat with one of the transit countries.
  - CapricornNoble 4y ago
    >>>Russia has switched off the gas before, such as when Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia switched off the gas 7 years after Putin was screaming from the rooftops that the US sticking ABMs in Eastern Europe was a red line for Russia. That's Russia being an unreliable partner?
    - jcranmer 4y ago
      Russia switched off the gas essentially because a pro-Russian Ukrainian government was insufficiently pro-Russian.