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You need certain machines for EUV. There's only one manufacturer (ASML) for those, and they're at capacity. And even if they wanted to scale up, there's only on

You need certain machines for EUV. There's only one manufacturer (ASML) for those, and they're at capacity. And even if they wanted to scale up, there's only one manufacturer (Zeiss) for the EUV mirrors required for those machines, and all their capacity for the next years is already bought as well.

throwawaylinux 4y ago
DUV seems to be economical down to about 7nm though.
- kuschku 4y ago
  From what Intel put out in marketing materials, even at 14nm they had a very unreliable process with DUV. So, it might not be economical for the type of IC produced in these factories.
  - sylware 4y ago
    So it means that chinese SMIC announced '7nm' implies they have EUV working?
    - Sakos 4y ago
      No, they don't have EUV. They have 7nm which they're doing with DUV, but they're hitting the same issues Intel did with abysmal yields and there's no guarantee that SMIC will be able to solve something Intel was never able to.
      - sylware 4y ago
        ... unless they jump onto the EUV train. That said heard that japan may come back as a top-notch silicium country with... nanoimprint?!
        ohazi 4y ago
        They're sanctioned, they can't just "jump"
        sylware 4y ago
        come on... ofc they would have to do the whole R&D.
      - kamaal 4y ago
        They do have EUV machines, albeit unreliable. Like you yourself mentioned the yields are the problem here. This is really more of an engineering problem, you need more cycles for quality and reliability. But it's not something unsurmountable. Intel had no reason to try hard enough, Intel is never going to get sanctioned. 'Necessity is the mother of all innovation' might come to play here. If it comes down to living vs dying, people go to no ends to make things happen.
        sc0ttyd 4y ago
        Source? I've not seen anything _anywhere_ about anyone other than ASML producing EUV lithography tools. DUV yes, but not EUV
    - me_me_me 4y ago
      I am announcing 1nm chip rihht here right now! Trust me I wouldn't lie. The nm measure is a marketing tool. Intel nm is 'larger' because they were measuring gates differently. I only take nm claims as comparison of products of same company.
  - throwawaylinux 4y ago
    TSMC (and Intel) use DUV for their 7nm. TSMC's DUV 7 processes are reportedly very good. And I thought Intel's 14 was good too (after some ramping), which is why they stayed on it and iterated on it for so long, it was the 10nm process they had so much trouble with and the problems there are not generally reported to be with lithography but materials (cobalt, among other things, which they dropped in later nodes). So I'm not sure what you are trying to argue. DUV has _proven_ to be economical down to about 7nm.
terminalcommand 4y ago
Why can't ASML scale up? I don't understand this. I think because they are a monopoly they can work slower, they don't need the extra profits.
- xxpor 4y ago
  ASML is (now) a company everyone has heard of, but like GP hinted at with their Zeiss comment, their supply chain is crazy deep as well. Getting everything scaled up across companies and countries is far from trivial.
  - terminalcommand 4y ago
    That's true, but this is one of the most important techs we have. From the recent news, I see that TSMC wants ASML to scale up as well. TSMC announced that it will cut its capital expenditure by 10% due to supply problems. This announcement tanked ASML's share price. My comment is that ASML is hitting their profit targets, they have backlog until 2024. If I were leading ASML or an employee of it, I wouldn't want to scale up. I am already hitting my targets, it's cozy, I have backlog until 2024, I have no competition. The current situation is good for ASML and bad for us. My comment is equally applicable for all companies in the supply chain that are monopolies.
    - snovv_crash 4y ago
      Apparently ASML's internal processes are a mess, with everything consistently blocked by technical debt. I suspect this is the biggest blocker to their ability to scale their production faster.
      - achenet 4y ago
        this makes me wish I were like the Harvey Keitel character in Pulp Fiction, so I could straighten my tie, say "I'm on it", and hop into my vintage Mercedes convertible to go fix it.

throwawaylinux 4y ago

DUV seems to be economical down to about 7nm though.

kuschku 4y ago
From what Intel put out in marketing materials, even at 14nm they had a very unreliable process with DUV. So, it might not be economical for the type of IC produced in these factories.
- sylware 4y ago
  So it means that chinese SMIC announced '7nm' implies they have EUV working?
  - Sakos 4y ago
    No, they don't have EUV. They have 7nm which they're doing with DUV, but they're hitting the same issues Intel did with abysmal yields and there's no guarantee that SMIC will be able to solve something Intel was never able to.
    - sylware 4y ago
      ... unless they jump onto the EUV train. That said heard that japan may come back as a top-notch silicium country with... nanoimprint?!
      - ohazi 4y ago
        They're sanctioned, they can't just "jump"
        sylware 4y ago
        come on... ofc they would have to do the whole R&D.
    - kamaal 4y ago
      They do have EUV machines, albeit unreliable. Like you yourself mentioned the yields are the problem here. This is really more of an engineering problem, you need more cycles for quality and reliability. But it's not something unsurmountable. Intel had no reason to try hard enough, Intel is never going to get sanctioned. 'Necessity is the mother of all innovation' might come to play here. If it comes down to living vs dying, people go to no ends to make things happen.
      - sc0ttyd 4y ago
        Source? I've not seen anything _anywhere_ about anyone other than ASML producing EUV lithography tools. DUV yes, but not EUV
  - me_me_me 4y ago
    I am announcing 1nm chip rihht here right now! Trust me I wouldn't lie. The nm measure is a marketing tool. Intel nm is 'larger' because they were measuring gates differently. I only take nm claims as comparison of products of same company.
- throwawaylinux 4y ago
  TSMC (and Intel) use DUV for their 7nm. TSMC's DUV 7 processes are reportedly very good. And I thought Intel's 14 was good too (after some ramping), which is why they stayed on it and iterated on it for so long, it was the 10nm process they had so much trouble with and the problems there are not generally reported to be with lithography but materials (cobalt, among other things, which they dropped in later nodes). So I'm not sure what you are trying to argue. DUV has _proven_ to be economical down to about 7nm.

terminalcommand 4y ago

Why can't ASML scale up? I don't understand this. I think because they are a monopoly they can work slower, they don't need the extra profits.

xxpor 4y ago
ASML is (now) a company everyone has heard of, but like GP hinted at with their Zeiss comment, their supply chain is crazy deep as well. Getting everything scaled up across companies and countries is far from trivial.
- terminalcommand 4y ago
  That's true, but this is one of the most important techs we have. From the recent news, I see that TSMC wants ASML to scale up as well. TSMC announced that it will cut its capital expenditure by 10% due to supply problems. This announcement tanked ASML's share price. My comment is that ASML is hitting their profit targets, they have backlog until 2024. If I were leading ASML or an employee of it, I wouldn't want to scale up. I am already hitting my targets, it's cozy, I have backlog until 2024, I have no competition. The current situation is good for ASML and bad for us. My comment is equally applicable for all companies in the supply chain that are monopolies.
  - snovv_crash 4y ago
    Apparently ASML's internal processes are a mess, with everything consistently blocked by technical debt. I suspect this is the biggest blocker to their ability to scale their production faster.
    - achenet 4y ago
      this makes me wish I were like the Harvey Keitel character in Pulp Fiction, so I could straighten my tie, say "I'm on it", and hop into my vintage Mercedes convertible to go fix it.