3 ms·

Everything can be predicted if you understand energy. Companies can't survive in a peak world without manufacturing crap. Sell more because your tools break.

by bullen 4y ago

Everything can be predicted if you understand energy. Companies can't survive in a peak world without manufacturing crap. Sell more because your tools break. So now they are looking at how to do that under the premise of eternal growth: They will try to lock us down in the hardware = deprecate older hardware and force you to move to never software with TLS 1.3. That has never succeded because you can always hack everything = They will try to rent out the accounts. They allready started that process, but I'm not buying it. I have all the software I need under permanent license. Since processors now have peaked, everyone is buying all the computers they can, the really smart ones are buying low energy devices like Raspberry but 1151 Xeon is also sold out. Anything manufactured today will probably have hardware kill-switches or programmed obsolescence. For companies: "To not lock your customer down for eternity is suicide"... Edit: Loving the downvotes without comment...

striking 4y ago
Fine, I'll bite. I downvoted you because TLS 1.3 isn't a conspiracy to make your old stuff break, and such an allegation is undeserving of a reply. You should be able to run an HTTP/S proxy supporting TLS 1.3 on any machine, issuing your own cert to machines that insist on unsupported HTTPS connection types, and route most of your traffic through it without issue. Raspberry Pis are out of stock because 1) companies that used them in production and got those production builds certified in some way get preference and 2) scalpers are taking the rest of the stock and doubling their money with it as it drops. Older Xeons (and similar hardware) aren't worth running unless you have access to really cheap electricity; upgrading your system is cheaper than paying for the electricity you'd be wasting otherwise, even if you're staying a gen or two behind by buying datacenter surplus from eBay et al. I understand your consternation, as some devices (e.g. cell phones) and some applications (e.g. SaaS apps) definitely appear to exhibit rent-seeking behavior. But that's no reason to declare literally everything a conspiracy, which just makes you appear to have some wires crossed.
- bullen 4y ago
  TLS 1.3 is not more secure then TLS 1.2 Now Mojang and Rockstar (on azure) have disabled TLS 1.2 on their servers on purpose to lockout Windows 7. Windows 10 offers NOTHING of value compared to Windows 7.
  - striking 4y ago
    You should give https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/why-use-tls-1.3/ https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/why-use-tls-1.3/ a read. Put briefly, TLS 1.2 supports cyphersuites that make it less secure and requires more roundtripping. It's not a surprise to me that some folks don't support it. Furthermore, the makers of Minecraft and Grand Theft Auto don't owe you the ability to use outdated OSes if you're using a service they maintain. They probably didn't intend to break your workflow, and instead wanted to make their own stuff more secure. If you're not a W10 fan, you could always run Minecraft on Linux. I think GTA V works on there as well. Either way, there's an out.
    - bullen 4y ago
      I need to have Win for game dev. Nothing is an out in any way. HTTPS is not secure in any way.
  - pests 4y ago
    We're on Windows 11 now.
svnt 4y ago
Your argument doesn’t hold together. Many traditional hardware companies are transitioning/have transitioned to some form of hybrid model or subscription service explicitly. We are actually looking at degrowth, not eternal growth. Processors may be near peaking but the Raspberry Pi is not a competitor with those processors. The reason stock is down is because of supply chain issues still overhanging from the pandemic.
- bullen 4y ago
  That is what I mean with eternal growth... how can you missunderstand that? Raspberry 4 has 2Gflops/W where M1 has 2.5!!! Pandemic is not the problem. Energy and money is the problem. Edit: Premise = Promise yes.
  - svnt 4y ago
    I guess that is just more evidence that your message is unclear. Did you mean promise instead of premise? Energy/money is also the solution, so if you see it as the problem then you are probably missing the specific details.
  - svnt 4y ago
    I don’t think I can edit my previous comment in response to your edit around Gflops/W, but I still don’t know anyone trading off rPi for M1. Do you?
BirAdam 4y ago
> Everything can be predicted if you understand energy Energy, while vital, is not the only component in any part of an economy. > Companies can't survive in a peak world without manufacturing crap. Sell more because your tools break. This cuts both ways. If tools break too often or too easily, someone else will manufacture a tool that lasts. That tool will then sell millions or even billions of units. This can sustain a company for quite a long time. > So now they are looking at how to do that under the premise of eternal growth No one believes in or expects "eternal" growth. It is well known that any bubble fueled by cheap money, government bailouts, corporate welfare, or any other intervention will eventually burst. This is planned for by the very largest companies. Companies without the resources to plan for these market crashes simply do the best that they can. > They will try to lock us down in the hardware = deprecate older hardware and force you to move to never software with TLS 1.3 I feel your pain here as an enthusiast for older hardware, but this is simply untrue. No one ever forced me to give up my ZX81, my XT, or my PPC lampshade iMac. I have them, I've kept them running, and they're fine. The XT and PPC can get online just fine either with a TLS bridge or with sites like 68k.news and frogfind.com. The constant upgrade cycle is optional. People are keep phones longer than ever. The cool-down in the PC market indicates that those enthusiasts who wanted to upgrade have done so. The heat up now is likely to be datacenters where the next wave of AMD Epyc offers a very massive energy to performance trade-off against Skylake SP. All of that said, eWaste is an issue and companies who make hardware that cannot be serviced and/or upgraded easily should probably pay a tax on it. > Since processors now have peaked There's plenty of room at the bottom. Seriously. I do not normally make appeals to authority because doing so is stupid, but we are talking about the most complicated machines humans have ever created. In this case, I would urge you to listen to the guy who has made these machines with extreme success: Jim Keller. He thinks we still have a long roadway of improvements before we are forced to change the industry in major ways (Gallium Arsenide or quantum or something). > Anything manufactured today will probably have hardware kill-switches or programmed obsolescence Already kind of illegal in some jurisdictions, and already a thing in others. Mixed bag there. However, also completely untrue as you used "anything". For example, in the automobile space you can sill get a Jeep with solid axels, a simple naturally aspirated V6, body on frame, and able to be serviced in pretty much any garage anywhere. The will to deal with tradeoffs of such a vehicle is the largest obstacle. Likewise, with computing, the willingness to deal with the tradeoffs is the problem. Do you want the best performance with most convenience? Then you likely want an M1/M2 MBP, and there you are not very serviceable. You could always get a Framework or build yourself a desktop. You can even run Linux, BSD, or Haiku if you want to make sure that your software will be serviceable by you. In any case, the limit is on you. You can choose the locked-down products, or you can choose open platforms. Most people choose a mixture based upon their needs and preferences. The preponderance of that selfsame majority then determines the overall direction of global markets. This isn't some shadowy cabal purposefully making a system that is unsustainable, this is the consequence of an aggregate of choices that put momentum behind certain things.
nebula8804 4y ago
Using MacOS buys you some more time. Linux is a dumpster fire (no its not the year of Linux nor will I try Linux Mint for the 1000th time). While its not open source, MacOS still acts like an OS from the Win 7 days...for now anyway. They will probably end up going down the road of Win 11 but I think its going to take many more years till they get there. They also offer excellent support. Their hardware gets like 10 years of OS updates. An M2 Mac today will last well past the next two US presidential cycles.
- bullen 4y ago
  You don't understand, the hardware we got 2017-2019 is peak forever. M1-2 are brittle and controlled, the opposite of open/repairable etc. ARM, Atom, Xeon from this period can last 100 years. If you don't have this hardware, you'll get something that will last max 10 years. USA has banned China from manufacturing without having a replacement.
  - nebula8804 4y ago
    Have you even tried an M1/M2 based computer? Its like when I moved from HDD to SSD, an unbelievable revolution in performance and snappiness. >M1-2 are brittle and controlled, the opposite of open/repairable etc. We have reached the point where we cannot have removable ram for technical reasons. M chips get a a lot of their performance from excellent memory bandwidth. Move on from this thought process. The software is still gives you more control compared to Windows and thats what really matters, not the arch that it is running. >If you don't have this hardware, you'll get something that will last max 10 years. 10 years is enough time for the next computing paradigm shift. It is great that MacOS lets us hold onto the old world for 10 more years(hopefully). >USA has banned China from manufacturing without having a replacement. Thats a temporary issue. They mostly made low end junk silicon anyway.
    - bullen 4y ago
      Raspberry 4 has 2Gflops/W on 28nm where M1 has 2.5 on 5!!! There wont be a next paradigm shift. DRR3 > DDR4 > DDR 5 > DDR6 in latency. Multicore is leveraged fully, it's the end of electric transistors. Memory has been slower than the CPU for 30 years! L1, L2, L3 only works around the problem, it does not solve the problem! You don't understand that SSDs peaked in 2011 when it comes to longevity at 60nm with 100.000 writes per bit. SATA chipsets/drivers offload the IO more than PCI-e which uses the CPU to buffer. Older is now better than new. It's over and when you are trying to get a new laptop in a few years (because your M1 broke) and they will cost $10.000 and break in 2 years and you have to pay $100/month to be able to access/develop on it. You'll remember me.

by bullen 4y ago

striking 4y ago

Fine, I'll bite. I downvoted you because TLS 1.3 isn't a conspiracy to make your old stuff break, and such an allegation is undeserving of a reply. You should be able to run an HTTP/S proxy supporting TLS 1.3 on any machine, issuing your own cert to machines that insist on unsupported HTTPS connection types, and route most of your traffic through it without issue. Raspberry Pis are out of stock because 1) companies that used them in production and got those production builds certified in some way get preference and 2) scalpers are taking the rest of the stock and doubling their money with it as it drops. Older Xeons (and similar hardware) aren't worth running unless you have access to really cheap electricity; upgrading your system is cheaper than paying for the electricity you'd be wasting otherwise, even if you're staying a gen or two behind by buying datacenter surplus from eBay et al. I understand your consternation, as some devices (e.g. cell phones) and some applications (e.g. SaaS apps) definitely appear to exhibit rent-seeking behavior. But that's no reason to declare literally everything a conspiracy, which just makes you appear to have some wires crossed.

bullen 4y ago
TLS 1.3 is not more secure then TLS 1.2 Now Mojang and Rockstar (on azure) have disabled TLS 1.2 on their servers on purpose to lockout Windows 7. Windows 10 offers NOTHING of value compared to Windows 7.
- striking 4y ago
  You should give https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/why-use-tls-1.3/ https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ssl/why-use-tls-1.3/ a read. Put briefly, TLS 1.2 supports cyphersuites that make it less secure and requires more roundtripping. It's not a surprise to me that some folks don't support it. Furthermore, the makers of Minecraft and Grand Theft Auto don't owe you the ability to use outdated OSes if you're using a service they maintain. They probably didn't intend to break your workflow, and instead wanted to make their own stuff more secure. If you're not a W10 fan, you could always run Minecraft on Linux. I think GTA V works on there as well. Either way, there's an out.
  - bullen 4y ago
    I need to have Win for game dev. Nothing is an out in any way. HTTPS is not secure in any way.
- pests 4y ago
  We're on Windows 11 now.

svnt 4y ago

Your argument doesn’t hold together. Many traditional hardware companies are transitioning/have transitioned to some form of hybrid model or subscription service explicitly. We are actually looking at degrowth, not eternal growth. Processors may be near peaking but the Raspberry Pi is not a competitor with those processors. The reason stock is down is because of supply chain issues still overhanging from the pandemic.

bullen 4y ago
That is what I mean with eternal growth... how can you missunderstand that? Raspberry 4 has 2Gflops/W where M1 has 2.5!!! Pandemic is not the problem. Energy and money is the problem. Edit: Premise = Promise yes.
- svnt 4y ago
  I guess that is just more evidence that your message is unclear. Did you mean promise instead of premise? Energy/money is also the solution, so if you see it as the problem then you are probably missing the specific details.
- svnt 4y ago
  I don’t think I can edit my previous comment in response to your edit around Gflops/W, but I still don’t know anyone trading off rPi for M1. Do you?

BirAdam 4y ago

> Everything can be predicted if you understand energy Energy, while vital, is not the only component in any part of an economy. > Companies can't survive in a peak world without manufacturing crap. Sell more because your tools break. This cuts both ways. If tools break too often or too easily, someone else will manufacture a tool that lasts. That tool will then sell millions or even billions of units. This can sustain a company for quite a long time. > So now they are looking at how to do that under the premise of eternal growth No one believes in or expects "eternal" growth. It is well known that any bubble fueled by cheap money, government bailouts, corporate welfare, or any other intervention will eventually burst. This is planned for by the very largest companies. Companies without the resources to plan for these market crashes simply do the best that they can. > They will try to lock us down in the hardware = deprecate older hardware and force you to move to never software with TLS 1.3 I feel your pain here as an enthusiast for older hardware, but this is simply untrue. No one ever forced me to give up my ZX81, my XT, or my PPC lampshade iMac. I have them, I've kept them running, and they're fine. The XT and PPC can get online just fine either with a TLS bridge or with sites like 68k.news and frogfind.com. The constant upgrade cycle is optional. People are keep phones longer than ever. The cool-down in the PC market indicates that those enthusiasts who wanted to upgrade have done so. The heat up now is likely to be datacenters where the next wave of AMD Epyc offers a very massive energy to performance trade-off against Skylake SP. All of that said, eWaste is an issue and companies who make hardware that cannot be serviced and/or upgraded easily should probably pay a tax on it. > Since processors now have peaked There's plenty of room at the bottom. Seriously. I do not normally make appeals to authority because doing so is stupid, but we are talking about the most complicated machines humans have ever created. In this case, I would urge you to listen to the guy who has made these machines with extreme success: Jim Keller. He thinks we still have a long roadway of improvements before we are forced to change the industry in major ways (Gallium Arsenide or quantum or something). > Anything manufactured today will probably have hardware kill-switches or programmed obsolescence Already kind of illegal in some jurisdictions, and already a thing in others. Mixed bag there. However, also completely untrue as you used "anything". For example, in the automobile space you can sill get a Jeep with solid axels, a simple naturally aspirated V6, body on frame, and able to be serviced in pretty much any garage anywhere. The will to deal with tradeoffs of such a vehicle is the largest obstacle. Likewise, with computing, the willingness to deal with the tradeoffs is the problem. Do you want the best performance with most convenience? Then you likely want an M1/M2 MBP, and there you are not very serviceable. You could always get a Framework or build yourself a desktop. You can even run Linux, BSD, or Haiku if you want to make sure that your software will be serviceable by you. In any case, the limit is on you. You can choose the locked-down products, or you can choose open platforms. Most people choose a mixture based upon their needs and preferences. The preponderance of that selfsame majority then determines the overall direction of global markets. This isn't some shadowy cabal purposefully making a system that is unsustainable, this is the consequence of an aggregate of choices that put momentum behind certain things.

nebula8804 4y ago

Using MacOS buys you some more time. Linux is a dumpster fire (no its not the year of Linux nor will I try Linux Mint for the 1000th time). While its not open source, MacOS still acts like an OS from the Win 7 days...for now anyway. They will probably end up going down the road of Win 11 but I think its going to take many more years till they get there. They also offer excellent support. Their hardware gets like 10 years of OS updates. An M2 Mac today will last well past the next two US presidential cycles.

bullen 4y ago
You don't understand, the hardware we got 2017-2019 is peak forever. M1-2 are brittle and controlled, the opposite of open/repairable etc. ARM, Atom, Xeon from this period can last 100 years. If you don't have this hardware, you'll get something that will last max 10 years. USA has banned China from manufacturing without having a replacement.
- nebula8804 4y ago
  Have you even tried an M1/M2 based computer? Its like when I moved from HDD to SSD, an unbelievable revolution in performance and snappiness. >M1-2 are brittle and controlled, the opposite of open/repairable etc. We have reached the point where we cannot have removable ram for technical reasons. M chips get a a lot of their performance from excellent memory bandwidth. Move on from this thought process. The software is still gives you more control compared to Windows and thats what really matters, not the arch that it is running. >If you don't have this hardware, you'll get something that will last max 10 years. 10 years is enough time for the next computing paradigm shift. It is great that MacOS lets us hold onto the old world for 10 more years(hopefully). >USA has banned China from manufacturing without having a replacement. Thats a temporary issue. They mostly made low end junk silicon anyway.
  - bullen 4y ago
    Raspberry 4 has 2Gflops/W on 28nm where M1 has 2.5 on 5!!! There wont be a next paradigm shift. DRR3 > DDR4 > DDR 5 > DDR6 in latency. Multicore is leveraged fully, it's the end of electric transistors. Memory has been slower than the CPU for 30 years! L1, L2, L3 only works around the problem, it does not solve the problem! You don't understand that SSDs peaked in 2011 when it comes to longevity at 60nm with 100.000 writes per bit. SATA chipsets/drivers offload the IO more than PCI-e which uses the CPU to buffer. Older is now better than new. It's over and when you are trying to get a new laptop in a few years (because your M1 broke) and they will cost $10.000 and break in 2 years and you have to pay $100/month to be able to access/develop on it. You'll remember me.