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I found this quoted passage quite interesting too. > An extremely dull future awaits of energy flows being largely local or in grids where the best meteorologi

I found this quoted passage quite interesting too. > An extremely dull future awaits of energy flows being largely local or in grids where the best meteorologists and machine learning engineers rake the table. One thing I'm not sure about -- do we actually have enough lithium to sustain ~ the current price at much higher consumption levels?

nine_k 4y ago
We have colossal known amounts of lithium available as deposits [1], plus many orders of magnitude more in seawater, which likely could be harvested along with its desalination. Also, lithium, like most alkaline metals, is pretty easy to extract and recycle. Batteries are not yet built for easy recycling though [2]; I can expect this to change as the scale grows. [1]: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/six-largest-lithium-reserves-world/ https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/six-largest-lithiu... [2]: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/lithium-costs-a-lot-of-money-so-why-arent-we-recycling-lithium-batteries/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/lithium-costs-a-lot-...
- cyberlurker 4y ago
  I would be pleasantly suprised if recycling is a focus earlier. But I fully expect huge landfills of batteries in the next few decades.
  - sgrove 4y ago
    I strongly suspect you might be disappointed. Battery collection and recycling - even as “raw ore” - should be easily profitable with plenty of motivated parties eventually. In the meantime, redwood materials will probably make quite a bit of money.
    - cyberlurker 4y ago
      Why would I be disappointed?
  - BluSyn 4y ago
    Recycling is already a key focus, as batteries are very mineral rich, and at scale much cheaper to refine locally than to mine & import with long supply chains. For those that doubt it's possible to collect spent batteries; recycling rates for lead acid car batteries is already 99%. They virtually never end up in landfills.
    - cyberlurker 4y ago
      This is new information to me. Do you have a source for car batteries being recycled at a 99% rate?
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Lithium abundance in battery waste is probably higher than in natural deposits. I doubt that huge landfills of battery waste will exist for very long as Lithium demand continues to soar.
- theptip 4y ago
  Extracting from seawater is a great example of a source that will certainly cost a lot more than current price levels to extract. The sources you link total ~65m tons which is ~17 years of consumption at the projected rate. In contrast oil has something like 47 years of consumption left in verified reserves (https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/). So it sounds to me like we're relying on recycling or some major new discoveries to actually be able to sustain the current prices used for that estimate (or of course new battery chemistries). I really don't have a feel for how fast new deposits are discovered; I'd be interested to know how fast new reserves of oil were being discovered prior to peak oil.
  - nine_k 4y ago
    With current technologies, extraction from seawater is definitely uneconomical. This is because nobody invested in improving the process. Compare the efficuency of producing gasoline in 1900 and in 1930. Same with solar panels in 1990 and 2020. Demand-driven research repeatedly demonstrated driving costs down a couple orders of magnitude.
Schroedingersat 4y ago
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/catl-unveils-its-latest-breakthrough-technology-by-releasing-its-first-generation-of-sodium-ion-batteries-301343998.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/catl-unveils-its-la... Also vanadium is 6x as abundant.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  > vanadium is 6x as abundant By mass. But a vanadium atom is more than 7x more massive than a lithium atom. So lithium is actually slightly more abundant by atomic % of the crust.
  - Schroedingersat 4y ago
    Good to know. Looks like about the same capacity per mol too. Looking up production, 15GWh/yr before hitting a substantial portion of current production is nothing to sniff at, but isn't really a global solution so scratch that of the list of hopefuls. There's still SIB, AlS, LiS (4x the capacity per mol of lithium), Fe-air and Al-air
tuatoru 4y ago
The current high price of lithium carbonate (an input into batteries) is due to a shortage of lithium refining capacity, not crude lithium mining capacity or of resource available. A factory shortage, not a mine shortage.

nine_k 4y ago

We have colossal known amounts of lithium available as deposits [1], plus many orders of magnitude more in seawater, which likely could be harvested along with its desalination. Also, lithium, like most alkaline metals, is pretty easy to extract and recycle. Batteries are not yet built for easy recycling though [2]; I can expect this to change as the scale grows. [1]: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/six-largest-lithium-reserves-world/ https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/six-largest-lithiu... [2]: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/lithium-costs-a-lot-of-money-so-why-arent-we-recycling-lithium-batteries/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04/lithium-costs-a-lot-...

cyberlurker 4y ago
I would be pleasantly suprised if recycling is a focus earlier. But I fully expect huge landfills of batteries in the next few decades.
- sgrove 4y ago
  I strongly suspect you might be disappointed. Battery collection and recycling - even as “raw ore” - should be easily profitable with plenty of motivated parties eventually. In the meantime, redwood materials will probably make quite a bit of money.
  - cyberlurker 4y ago
    Why would I be disappointed?
- BluSyn 4y ago
  Recycling is already a key focus, as batteries are very mineral rich, and at scale much cheaper to refine locally than to mine & import with long supply chains. For those that doubt it's possible to collect spent batteries; recycling rates for lead acid car batteries is already 99%. They virtually never end up in landfills.
  - cyberlurker 4y ago
    This is new information to me. Do you have a source for car batteries being recycled at a 99% rate?
- adrianN 4y ago
  Lithium abundance in battery waste is probably higher than in natural deposits. I doubt that huge landfills of battery waste will exist for very long as Lithium demand continues to soar.
theptip 4y ago
Extracting from seawater is a great example of a source that will certainly cost a lot more than current price levels to extract. The sources you link total ~65m tons which is ~17 years of consumption at the projected rate. In contrast oil has something like 47 years of consumption left in verified reserves (https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/). So it sounds to me like we're relying on recycling or some major new discoveries to actually be able to sustain the current prices used for that estimate (or of course new battery chemistries). I really don't have a feel for how fast new deposits are discovered; I'd be interested to know how fast new reserves of oil were being discovered prior to peak oil.
- nine_k 4y ago
  With current technologies, extraction from seawater is definitely uneconomical. This is because nobody invested in improving the process. Compare the efficuency of producing gasoline in 1900 and in 1930. Same with solar panels in 1990 and 2020. Demand-driven research repeatedly demonstrated driving costs down a couple orders of magnitude.

Schroedingersat 4y ago

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/catl-unveils-its-latest-breakthrough-technology-by-releasing-its-first-generation-of-sodium-ion-batteries-301343998.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/catl-unveils-its-la... Also vanadium is 6x as abundant.

pfdietz 4y ago
> vanadium is 6x as abundant By mass. But a vanadium atom is more than 7x more massive than a lithium atom. So lithium is actually slightly more abundant by atomic % of the crust.
- Schroedingersat 4y ago
  Good to know. Looks like about the same capacity per mol too. Looking up production, 15GWh/yr before hitting a substantial portion of current production is nothing to sniff at, but isn't really a global solution so scratch that of the list of hopefuls. There's still SIB, AlS, LiS (4x the capacity per mol of lithium), Fe-air and Al-air

tuatoru 4y ago

The current high price of lithium carbonate (an input into batteries) is due to a shortage of lithium refining capacity, not crude lithium mining capacity or of resource available. A factory shortage, not a mine shortage.