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> Buying a powerball ticket doesn't measurably change your chance of winning. This doesn't feel right. There must be a statistical difference between zero chan

> Buying a powerball ticket doesn't measurably change your chance of winning. This doesn't feel right. There must be a statistical difference between zero chances of winning and 1 in a billion chances of winning. Close to imperceptible maybe, but zero is pretty absolute.

sidewndr46 4y ago
I said "measurably". That is to say it has no impact on your life, other than reducing the amount of money you have. Anyone who took a basic combinatorics or discrete math class can explain the mathematical difference, which is obviously nonzero.
- cookie_monsta 4y ago
  Well if we're changing the statement so that it's now about impact on life that's mostly correct, except if you're talking to the person who bought the winning ticket. But we were originally discussing if buying a ticket changed your chances of winning. Not buying a ticket you have zero chances in infinity. Buying a ticket you have 1 chance in 292 million. I don't think it matters that you have decided that 292 million is a really big number. It's certainly less than infinity and 1 is certainly more than zero. I don't know what kind of maths classes you would need to take to see what has changed there.
bena 4y ago
Do you fear being struck by lightning (about 1 in a million)? Being attacked by a shark at the beach (about 1 in 4 million)? Do you panic a little bit every time you step outside? Or get into the water? Both of those events have a way higher chance of happening than any single person winning the lottery (1 in about 292.2 million). We don't panic because the chance of being struck by lightning doesn't measurably increase when we walk outside. The difference between 0 and 0.000000003 is insignificant. A foot is 12 inches. A foot and 0.000000003 inches is also close enough to 12 inches that it doesn't matter to record the inches. Lego bricks have a tolerance of about 0.001mm. That's what they mean when they say there is no measurable change. There's technically a change, but it's not a change that means anything.
- cookie_monsta 4y ago
  > Do you panic a little bit every time you step outside? Or get into the water? I wouldn't say panic, but I am aware of those things and do my best to prevent them from happening to me. If they were guaranteed to happen to somebody each Saturday at 8pm I would be a little more nervous around that time. > The difference between 0 and 0.000000003 is insignificant. Surely this depends on the unit of measurement? If I told you the train station was only 0.000000003 parsecs away would you be happy to walk? My point is that the original statement is only true if nobody ever wins the lottery. But line up all the people who have won. What do they have in common? They bought a ticket. Line up all the people who have never bought a ticket. What do they have in common? They've never won. Nobody's saying the odds are good or that the lottery is a sound investment strategy. But zero in infinite chances seems measurably less than 1 in 292 million.
  - bena 4y ago
    No. You don't. You generally aren't aware of them either. I'm comfortable saying that. Don't get so entrenched in a position that you find yourself saying ridiculous things just to defend a bad point. The lottery also isn't guaranteed. The lottery goes unwon often. And it doesn't change the odds. You should be way more afraid of both lightning and sharks if you think buying a lottery ticket gives you much more a chance of winning it than me. And you know what's crazy? 0.000000003 parsecs is just about 60 thousand miles. On the scale that parsecs are measured, that's nothing. It's a rounding error. It's telling that you have to use cosmic scales to make the difference measurable. That should tell you something. Line up all the people who have been struck by lightning, what do they have in common? They went outside. So never go outside. Conversely, line up all the people who bought tickets and never won. There's far more of them. You are more likely to get cancer than win the lottery. So much more likely that buying a lottery ticket at a gas station is irony of the highest order. Due to the number of known carcinogens found at gas stations.
    - cookie_monsta 4y ago
      Please don't tell me what I am aware of based on what you choose to ignore. I have moved off golf courses during lightning storms because I knew that I was creating conditions likely to increase my odds of getting struck. I have swum closer to the shore because I know that out in the colder waters past the breakers is where shark attacks happen and because I live in a country where 4 people get attacked (one fatally) in shark attacks every year. And if either of those things do ever happen, I can guarantee that my last words won't be "but this was statistically improbable!!!" I agree, it's unlikely. You don't have to wheel out numbers about how unlikely winning the lottery is either. But I know that my chances of getting attacked by a shark in the Costco car park are the same as my chances of winning the lottery without buying a ticket: zero. And if we can't agree that zero is different to one we'll just have to agree to disagree.

sidewndr46 4y ago

I said "measurably". That is to say it has no impact on your life, other than reducing the amount of money you have. Anyone who took a basic combinatorics or discrete math class can explain the mathematical difference, which is obviously nonzero.

cookie_monsta 4y ago
Well if we're changing the statement so that it's now about impact on life that's mostly correct, except if you're talking to the person who bought the winning ticket. But we were originally discussing if buying a ticket changed your chances of winning. Not buying a ticket you have zero chances in infinity. Buying a ticket you have 1 chance in 292 million. I don't think it matters that you have decided that 292 million is a really big number. It's certainly less than infinity and 1 is certainly more than zero. I don't know what kind of maths classes you would need to take to see what has changed there.

bena 4y ago

Do you fear being struck by lightning (about 1 in a million)? Being attacked by a shark at the beach (about 1 in 4 million)? Do you panic a little bit every time you step outside? Or get into the water? Both of those events have a way higher chance of happening than any single person winning the lottery (1 in about 292.2 million). We don't panic because the chance of being struck by lightning doesn't measurably increase when we walk outside. The difference between 0 and 0.000000003 is insignificant. A foot is 12 inches. A foot and 0.000000003 inches is also close enough to 12 inches that it doesn't matter to record the inches. Lego bricks have a tolerance of about 0.001mm. That's what they mean when they say there is no measurable change. There's technically a change, but it's not a change that means anything.

cookie_monsta 4y ago
> Do you panic a little bit every time you step outside? Or get into the water? I wouldn't say panic, but I am aware of those things and do my best to prevent them from happening to me. If they were guaranteed to happen to somebody each Saturday at 8pm I would be a little more nervous around that time. > The difference between 0 and 0.000000003 is insignificant. Surely this depends on the unit of measurement? If I told you the train station was only 0.000000003 parsecs away would you be happy to walk? My point is that the original statement is only true if nobody ever wins the lottery. But line up all the people who have won. What do they have in common? They bought a ticket. Line up all the people who have never bought a ticket. What do they have in common? They've never won. Nobody's saying the odds are good or that the lottery is a sound investment strategy. But zero in infinite chances seems measurably less than 1 in 292 million.
- bena 4y ago
  No. You don't. You generally aren't aware of them either. I'm comfortable saying that. Don't get so entrenched in a position that you find yourself saying ridiculous things just to defend a bad point. The lottery also isn't guaranteed. The lottery goes unwon often. And it doesn't change the odds. You should be way more afraid of both lightning and sharks if you think buying a lottery ticket gives you much more a chance of winning it than me. And you know what's crazy? 0.000000003 parsecs is just about 60 thousand miles. On the scale that parsecs are measured, that's nothing. It's a rounding error. It's telling that you have to use cosmic scales to make the difference measurable. That should tell you something. Line up all the people who have been struck by lightning, what do they have in common? They went outside. So never go outside. Conversely, line up all the people who bought tickets and never won. There's far more of them. You are more likely to get cancer than win the lottery. So much more likely that buying a lottery ticket at a gas station is irony of the highest order. Due to the number of known carcinogens found at gas stations.
  - cookie_monsta 4y ago
    Please don't tell me what I am aware of based on what you choose to ignore. I have moved off golf courses during lightning storms because I knew that I was creating conditions likely to increase my odds of getting struck. I have swum closer to the shore because I know that out in the colder waters past the breakers is where shark attacks happen and because I live in a country where 4 people get attacked (one fatally) in shark attacks every year. And if either of those things do ever happen, I can guarantee that my last words won't be "but this was statistically improbable!!!" I agree, it's unlikely. You don't have to wheel out numbers about how unlikely winning the lottery is either. But I know that my chances of getting attacked by a shark in the Costco car park are the same as my chances of winning the lottery without buying a ticket: zero. And if we can't agree that zero is different to one we'll just have to agree to disagree.