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> He's lashing out like a toddler who can't have something he wants. I think that is an overly simplistic interpretation. The larger context to consider here
by altacc 4y ago
> He's lashing out like a toddler who can't have something he wants.
I think that is an overly simplistic interpretation.
The larger context to consider here is other countries that are loyal/controlled/influenced by Russia, the ex-Soviet states like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia. Russia's inability to defeat Ukraine is showing them that they can move away from Russia of soften their alignment and go against the Kremlin's influences. Kazakhstan has rejected the referenda annexing Ukrainian territory and Kyrgyzstan has canceled joint military exercises with Russia.
Therefore Russia wants to signal that it still can project destructive power abroad both directly, with strikes on civilians deep in Ukraine, and indirectly. By attacking civilians and ignoring the usual norms & law of war (which is usual for Russia anyway), Russia is reminding people that it doesn't care about such things as civilians and therefore the talk of using nuclear weapons should be taken seriously.
Basically Russia is reminding us that it is a bully who doesn't care about your feelings.
Internally, whilst Putin holds almost ultimate power, this still requires a loyal network of supporters who run the country's government and businesses. He needs to keep the tough man image that he has cultivated and relies on for power. Showing any weakness begins his eventual downfall. Which is one reason why blaming and sacking top military: to show his power of them.
Lastly, humans tend to be less risk adverse when cornered and Putin is getting cornered by these factors and more. That makes him more likely to try harsher tactics in order to save himself. We've seen this recently with the conscription, bombings, propaganda and increasing the murders and forced deportations in captured territory. He will become more unpredictable and I fear things will get much worse before they get better.
- Max-Ganz-II 4y agoIn all of this horror, it is the forced deportations which trouble me most. Hundreds of thousands of people, forceably transported into Russia. Where are those people now? what is happening to them? how are they going to get back to Ukraine? Russia historically, in conquered countries, destroys the local culture. Cyrillic and Russian become mandatory in the schools, organizations and traditions of local culture are suppressed, and mass deportations and incarcerations. Also, of course, beatings and torture; all of which we see now. To my eye, as in history, this is part of Russia looking to make Ukraine actually Russian; to conquer and subsume. The Poles used to say they preferred the Germans to the Russians; "with the Germans we lose our freedom, with the Russians we lose our souls".
- mcv 4y agoI'm terrified for those deportees. People (including me) keep saying that Putin can have peace simply by leaving Ukraine, but simply leaving Ukraine doesn't bring those deported people back. You bet he's going to use them as some sort of leverage. Or just kill them if they become a liability. I really hope they'll be able to return, but I fear that might end up requiring some concessions to Putin.
- rasz 4y ago>Where are those people now? Children have been told their parents abandoned them, and given to russian families. https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1581364032019132416 https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1581364032019132416 https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1571083249325314050 https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/15710832493253140...