> But if they are two different things (i.e. I vote for candidate A but guess candidate B will win) I don't see an issue. The problem is that most people are b

> But if they are two different things (i.e. I vote for candidate A but guess candidate B will win) I don't see an issue. The problem is that most people are biased towards thinking their favorite candidate will win, so if it's a close election then most people will guess the same as their vote. > I would be curious if exit pollsters have ever asked this question. Ask people who they voted for, but also who they think will win. It would be interesting to see how accurate guesses are. Political betting markets are kind of like that. Though, with money on the line, participants have a stronger incentive to avoid bias than they would in a poll.