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This is likely to turn out to be the biggest failure of US policy maneuvering of this century. By keeping China coupled to the Wests semi-conductor supply chai
by jpgvm 4y ago
This is likely to turn out to be the biggest failure of US policy maneuvering of this century.
By keeping China coupled to the Wests semi-conductor supply chain there was always pressure that could be applied in various ways, veiled threat of back-doored chips, etc.
Instead all you are doing is creating the perfect incubating scenario for a massive surge in Chinese semi-conductor technology.
If you think about where the Chinese are right now economically etc they are ready to move away from their previous growth engines and onto new things.
Part of that started happening about 10-15 years ago when they started massively investing in solar and kicking off their nuclear program. These days they produce ~80% of the worlds solar cells and the cells they produce are straight up better than what you can get elsewhere. CATL and their perfection of the LiFePO4 chemistry is another.
So maybe for the next ~5-10 years the US/West will have a substantial lead in semi-conductor process nodes. Unfortunately this is essentially the least effective time to do this. Moores law scaling has massively slowed down, we still get faster processors each years but not at the same rate as before and not so much through increased transistor density and even where that scaling is still relevant it's not scaling at the same cost anymore. True increased performance of computer systems in this day and age comes from software and the Chinese are not behind on that front at all and it's incredibly unlikely anything can be done to slow them down.
After that all it's really done is create most likely the ultimate competitor with infinite amounts of funding with a huge pipeline of STEM grads that will be encouraged to go into semiconductor supply chain tech. All the while with an expanding consumer class to buy all of this stuff and keep the wheels moving.
Sadly I just don't see this ending well for the West and in particular countries like mine that are at odds with China and yet dependent on them for economic continued existence.
The only way I could see it working would be to find some means to bring back trade agreements like the TTP that Trump canned and also work to ensure India doesn't get pushed into a closer relationship with China but I really don't believe the US has the required nuance in international relations to make that happen anymore.