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Very interesting Twitter thread on this here https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440?s=46&t=Sj_DKlDJQyMNTk68gXhbIw https://twitter.com/jorda

Very interesting Twitter thread on this here https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440?s=46&t=Sj_DKlDJQyMNTk68gXhbIw https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1580889341265469440?... Pretty dramatic stuff but unsure how this will benefit the US since obviously to have this much western talent and IP the Chinese weee investing heavily. Remains to be seen if the west is going to do likewise.

nine_k 4y ago
I suppose it's about hampering the China's export industry on one hand, and China's ability to make advanced weapons, on the other hand. It's more an act of the cold war, and less an attempt to help US industry profit more.
- rjzzleep 4y ago
  Advanced weapons don't need 5nm chips. How will this hamper anything in China long term? Germany for example cut off its biggest energy suppliers is preparing for an economic war with China while claiming they're moving to renewables with a supply chain that is owned over 80% by China. Where is Europes manufacturing these days? India, China, Vietnam, Turkey? Turkey is completely alienated by Europe and is turning more extreme by the day as a result(they applied to the "EU" in 1987 btw). Vietnam went to apologize for Blinkens statements to the Chinese representatives not to long ago and India is actively defying western sanctions even though they dislike China and said that their problems with China are not related to the Ukraine situation at all and that they will deal with China on their own if they need to. Usually, when you prepare for a war, you set up alternative supply chains, build up your capabilities, set up your independent energy/natural resource supply chain and then cut off what you consider your enemy. How is Europe to build up their military for a confrontation if they can't even power their own factories? I thought Trump was bad at making these kinds of strategic decisions, but this administration takes the cake. Completely haphazard, ill conceived, badly planned decisions that only make sense if you turn back the clock to 1990. If I was really generous and speculative I'd say that the plan is to make everyone divest to Taiwan in the hopes that Taiwan is then more important to everyone. But can nobody read a map? You have China 100km across the strait and the US 7000 km away. Last time they tried to upgrade the F16s they had to have an emergency landing in Hawaii. We had missile tests on this island which had to be stopped because the missiles had launch failures. This is local Taiwan news. Cut off China completely and move everything to Taiwan. What does China have to lose from invading and embargoing Taiwan at that point? If there is one lesson from the Ukraine conflict its not to turn Taiwan into another Ukraine. It's to start some kind of dialogue, and try to involve parties such as India in that dialogue. EDIT: since the person below had to come up with this "don't talk to terrorists" nonsense, i have to respond. This isn't some bank raid or a high school fight. These are conflicts with the biggest nuclear power that exports 1/3rd of earths natural resources and the biggest manufacturing and military manpower on the planet. You ABSOLUTELY talk to them. Estonia made statements like that as well. You ABSOLUTELY talk to a neighbour that has 377 your surface area in land and the worlds biggest nuclear arsenal. What's wrong with these people? Let's say they are terrorists for the sake of the argument. All the more reason to find a solution. Or if you really want a military confrontation, prepare for it silently and then show your cards when you're ready.
  - baybal2 4y ago
    [dead]
  - throwaway4good 4y ago
    Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China. I think a key to understanding their thinking is that they believe that the US is winning wrt. Ukraine. And having solidified European allies, now is the time to use that momentum and full-on confront China. So you would end up with a broken Russia, a humiliated China, and another unipolar American moment like the 90es. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/biden-china-semiconductor-chips-exports-decouple/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/biden-china-semiconduct... Biden Is Now All-In on Taking Out China The U.S. president has committed to rapid decoupling, whatever the consequences. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/china-semiconductors-exports.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/china-semiconduct... We Are Suddenly Taking On China and Russia at the Same Time A battle over computer chips could have more long-term global impact than the Ukraine war.
    - ericmay 4y ago
      > Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China. It’s important to be clear here that this administration isn’t creating a two-front “war” or conflict with Russia and China but responding to egregious activities by both parties. It should also be noted that all of these moves have wide bipartisan support. Something like 99-1 senate votes and the like. Trump, a Republican, campaigned on being tough on China after the Obama administration and enacted punitive trade tariffs and the like. Republicans and Democrats campaign in states like Ohio where manufacturing was hollowed out that they’ll “be tough on China”. Western countries (Germany - Russia, U.S. - China) spent decades trying to open markets and provided peaceful dialog between countries while managing sore spots without conflict. Russia chose to invade Ukraine and disrupt emergent markets. China chose to become a dictatorship and engage in hard-line international policies. It’s important to remember this less as the US and western allies decoupling and more so responding to a decoupling that already occurred lead by both Putin and Jinping. You can know that this is the case because both leaders tell you that this is the case in their “rejection of the international order” or “American lead order” or similar rhetoric.
- bsder 4y ago
  > It's more an act of the cold war, and less an attempt to help US industry profit more. As well as to make companies finally decouple from China. Everybody saw China shake down Apple and should have taken the hint to start moving operations. Yet none of the C-suite in the US were willing to risk their bonuses by being the first company who pulls out of China while their competitors don't. This puts the boot into the short-term capitalist thinking and forces the issue.
  - svnt 4y ago
    Not sure why you’ve been downvoted. It’s like when universities pushed state governments to implement COVID pandemic policies because they know they all need to but they also know the first one to do it alone will take it in the shorts.
  - Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
    >This puts the boot into the short-term capitalist thinking and forces the issue. Yes, but companies where never expected to or supposed to implement these policies. It will be worthwhile to use chinese factories until the moment they are cut off.
- etempleton 4y ago
  The move by the Biden administration is about advanced weapon systems and China’s dangerous rhetoric—especially in the shadow of Russia’s actions. The war in Ukraine demonstrates that, if anything, the US underestimated the advantage of western weapon systems. That has little to do with the steel and mechanical engineering and much to do with chips and software. The US has to take China’s threats seriously. They are boasting about Hong Kong. They feel emboldened by it. I don’t think the rhetoric is empty about Taiwan. And if they take the island it will only embolden China further. If China takes Taiwan it changes the entire global power dynamic. If they try and fail it is probably the beginning of the end of the Chinese government as we know it.
tenpies 4y ago
- chrisco255 4y ago
  Post-Trump? What exactly was the orderly result of Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan? Or the 2014 Ukraine coup which U.S. backed, which led to the current war? U.S. has been haphazardly applying its force for decades. That being said, Europe has shot itself in the foot with its energy policy. I don't think the U.S. convinced them to make themselves entirely dependent on Russian gas for energy. U.S. did not tell Germany to shut down nuclear power, they did that on their own.
  - netmonk 4y ago
    This is pretty naive. Most European leaders and close counsellors are tied to young leader’s American program. So basically they are tied to USA foreign policy. It’s a secret for nobody that European Union is an USA création to destroy Europe of Nations. This explain very well to fast progress of the growing gap between European elite submissive to USA and sovereign citizen suffering on a daily basis from this absurd situation.
    - seibelj 4y ago
      That is hilarious - “all the problems of Europe are actually the USA’s fault!” Incredible
      - chihuahua 4y ago
        Pretty standard opinion around here, everything is somehow USA's fault, not just the problems of Europe.
      - netmonk 4y ago
        Since WWII, it seems so. Geographical Europe was battle ground of cold war, where the eat and west meet. When im talking about USA, im not talking about texans white trash living in a van. Im talking of all the diplomatic, lobbying and administrations tied to US political power. What nationnality is the creator of tittytainment ? For instance. « ON ASSERVIT LES PEUPLES PLUS FACILEMENT AVEC LA PORNOGRAPHIE QU’AVEC DES MIRADORS », ALEXANDRE SOLJENITSYNE which nationnality are porn content creator, provider, distributor ? when i talk about local leader brainwashing : https://ylai.state.gov/ https://ylai.state.gov/ Young leader program, under the aim to ease inter-country business relation is as a matter of fact intelligence operation to shape and control political and economical leadership of foreign countries. Here in France we have numerous example of political/economical local decision proven to be against France interest. Our own president Macron a young leader fellow, destroying one of our Industry battleship Alstom in favor of USA. open border ideology reshapping identity management of country are promoted and financed by a myriad of NGO mostly rooted in USA. more recently, almost all colored revolution in numerous countries around the globe are directly linked to local US embassy. So yes the mix between a foreign involvement and local brain washed leaders brings the desastrous situation in Europe.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
oneoff786 4y ago
It’s an interesting move. Amidst a strengthening US dollar, a sharp drop in Chinese food security that will likely depend on the US, and a pretty severe real estate crisis unfolding in China; China’s economic leverage has likely done a 180 and begun to look very vulnerable. Removing dependence on China for things, increasing China’s dependence on an independent and functional Taiwan, and just generally establishing pecking order is probably a really strong geopolitical move. I would expect that China is further shy of making serious retaliations at the moment due to dependence for food and fear of manufacturing moving to India.
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >it’s an interesting move. It was an US unilateral move after CHIPS4 couldn't agree on export controls that basically killed 1/3 of their semi revenue, i.e. it seems more like US desperation after being unable to get East Asian semi on board after realizing merely "sprint" strategy wasn't enough to stay ahead of PRC, but must sprint and hobble. To me it looks like essential admission that PRC will make it sooner than later, and now US is trying to buy time at all cost despite lack of cooperation from allies who will most likely start de-americanizing supply chains for that 400B PRC semi pot. >dependence on TW >shy of making serious retaliations The opposite is happening, US trying to cut PRC Off TW semi that US is 90% dependant in. So PRC now has more incentive to meddle with fabs on the island to disrupt US high tech at little cost to her own industry. I expect we're trending towards developments that will end in PRC disrupting TW fabs in the coming years to destablize US supply chains. Otherwise PRC leverage is still the same, she still has calorie food sufficiency, with now guaranteed long term supplies (grains + fertilizer) from RU. Managable real real estate crisis still being managed. Meanwhile PRC still has controls over most of supply chains and rare earth production, F35 made from PRC metals just got waiver. The reality is, PRC hasn't made serious retaliations so far because it didn't want more high tech decoupling, but once decouple past certain point, PRC hands will become freer to retaliate. We'll have to see TSMC/Samsung and other if waivers stop next year.
jonp888 4y ago
It's pretty disturbing and disgusting that the President would threaten to strip people of their citizenship for having the 'wrong' job. Is there any crime you could commit in the US that is do bad it would result in loss of citizenship? No other country would behave this way, but I guess we should expect that from one of only two countries that taxes all it citizens worldwide, even if they've never even visited the US. Given that US citizenship is difficult and ludicrously expensive to get rid of(presumably as some kind of punishment for wanting to do so) possibly some of these people might actually be happy about if they are dual citizens.
- Test0129 4y ago
  Generally (and it's still hard in these cases) you can lose your citizenship if you are convicted of treason, found to have served in a hostile foreign country's army, working for a country's government when you are the same nationality, etc. I'm sure a LOT of countries have laws like these in one form or the other. I'd imagine that the inside baseball on this is the US is effectively declaring China an enemy, and so therefore can make this threat. The only question is how actionable it is.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    >"you can lose your citizenship if you are convicted of treason" Only if the treason was committed with the confirmed intent of loosing a citizenship. Otherwise the citizenship stays.
    - Test0129 4y ago
      I found this [0] that the logic followed is a citizenship generally has to be voluntarily resigned but several actions can make you "accidentally voluntarily resign" it so to speak. It's strange to me Biden would do this especially since we aren't in open war with China but every day I wake up this world gets more strange. It does suggest certain crimes must be done with the intent to lose your citizenship as you suggest which makes Biden's action even more dangerous. [0] https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/when-us-citizens-can-lose-us-citizenship.html https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/when-us-citizens-can...

nine_k 4y ago

I suppose it's about hampering the China's export industry on one hand, and China's ability to make advanced weapons, on the other hand. It's more an act of the cold war, and less an attempt to help US industry profit more.

rjzzleep 4y ago
Advanced weapons don't need 5nm chips. How will this hamper anything in China long term? Germany for example cut off its biggest energy suppliers is preparing for an economic war with China while claiming they're moving to renewables with a supply chain that is owned over 80% by China. Where is Europes manufacturing these days? India, China, Vietnam, Turkey? Turkey is completely alienated by Europe and is turning more extreme by the day as a result(they applied to the "EU" in 1987 btw). Vietnam went to apologize for Blinkens statements to the Chinese representatives not to long ago and India is actively defying western sanctions even though they dislike China and said that their problems with China are not related to the Ukraine situation at all and that they will deal with China on their own if they need to. Usually, when you prepare for a war, you set up alternative supply chains, build up your capabilities, set up your independent energy/natural resource supply chain and then cut off what you consider your enemy. How is Europe to build up their military for a confrontation if they can't even power their own factories? I thought Trump was bad at making these kinds of strategic decisions, but this administration takes the cake. Completely haphazard, ill conceived, badly planned decisions that only make sense if you turn back the clock to 1990. If I was really generous and speculative I'd say that the plan is to make everyone divest to Taiwan in the hopes that Taiwan is then more important to everyone. But can nobody read a map? You have China 100km across the strait and the US 7000 km away. Last time they tried to upgrade the F16s they had to have an emergency landing in Hawaii. We had missile tests on this island which had to be stopped because the missiles had launch failures. This is local Taiwan news. Cut off China completely and move everything to Taiwan. What does China have to lose from invading and embargoing Taiwan at that point? If there is one lesson from the Ukraine conflict its not to turn Taiwan into another Ukraine. It's to start some kind of dialogue, and try to involve parties such as India in that dialogue. EDIT: since the person below had to come up with this "don't talk to terrorists" nonsense, i have to respond. This isn't some bank raid or a high school fight. These are conflicts with the biggest nuclear power that exports 1/3rd of earths natural resources and the biggest manufacturing and military manpower on the planet. You ABSOLUTELY talk to them. Estonia made statements like that as well. You ABSOLUTELY talk to a neighbour that has 377 your surface area in land and the worlds biggest nuclear arsenal. What's wrong with these people? Let's say they are terrorists for the sake of the argument. All the more reason to find a solution. Or if you really want a military confrontation, prepare for it silently and then show your cards when you're ready.
- baybal2 4y ago
  [dead]
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China. I think a key to understanding their thinking is that they believe that the US is winning wrt. Ukraine. And having solidified European allies, now is the time to use that momentum and full-on confront China. So you would end up with a broken Russia, a humiliated China, and another unipolar American moment like the 90es. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/biden-china-semiconductor-chips-exports-decouple/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/biden-china-semiconduct... Biden Is Now All-In on Taking Out China The U.S. president has committed to rapid decoupling, whatever the consequences. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/china-semiconductors-exports.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/china-semiconduct... We Are Suddenly Taking On China and Russia at the Same Time A battle over computer chips could have more long-term global impact than the Ukraine war.
  - ericmay 4y ago
    > Yes. The Biden admin is creating a two-front war with Russia and China. It’s important to be clear here that this administration isn’t creating a two-front “war” or conflict with Russia and China but responding to egregious activities by both parties. It should also be noted that all of these moves have wide bipartisan support. Something like 99-1 senate votes and the like. Trump, a Republican, campaigned on being tough on China after the Obama administration and enacted punitive trade tariffs and the like. Republicans and Democrats campaign in states like Ohio where manufacturing was hollowed out that they’ll “be tough on China”. Western countries (Germany - Russia, U.S. - China) spent decades trying to open markets and provided peaceful dialog between countries while managing sore spots without conflict. Russia chose to invade Ukraine and disrupt emergent markets. China chose to become a dictatorship and engage in hard-line international policies. It’s important to remember this less as the US and western allies decoupling and more so responding to a decoupling that already occurred lead by both Putin and Jinping. You can know that this is the case because both leaders tell you that this is the case in their “rejection of the international order” or “American lead order” or similar rhetoric.
bsder 4y ago
> It's more an act of the cold war, and less an attempt to help US industry profit more. As well as to make companies finally decouple from China. Everybody saw China shake down Apple and should have taken the hint to start moving operations. Yet none of the C-suite in the US were willing to risk their bonuses by being the first company who pulls out of China while their competitors don't. This puts the boot into the short-term capitalist thinking and forces the issue.
- svnt 4y ago
  Not sure why you’ve been downvoted. It’s like when universities pushed state governments to implement COVID pandemic policies because they know they all need to but they also know the first one to do it alone will take it in the shorts.
- Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
  >This puts the boot into the short-term capitalist thinking and forces the issue. Yes, but companies where never expected to or supposed to implement these policies. It will be worthwhile to use chinese factories until the moment they are cut off.
etempleton 4y ago
The move by the Biden administration is about advanced weapon systems and China’s dangerous rhetoric—especially in the shadow of Russia’s actions. The war in Ukraine demonstrates that, if anything, the US underestimated the advantage of western weapon systems. That has little to do with the steel and mechanical engineering and much to do with chips and software. The US has to take China’s threats seriously. They are boasting about Hong Kong. They feel emboldened by it. I don’t think the rhetoric is empty about Taiwan. And if they take the island it will only embolden China further. If China takes Taiwan it changes the entire global power dynamic. If they try and fail it is probably the beginning of the end of the Chinese government as we know it.

tenpies 4y ago

chrisco255 4y ago
Post-Trump? What exactly was the orderly result of Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan? Or the 2014 Ukraine coup which U.S. backed, which led to the current war? U.S. has been haphazardly applying its force for decades. That being said, Europe has shot itself in the foot with its energy policy. I don't think the U.S. convinced them to make themselves entirely dependent on Russian gas for energy. U.S. did not tell Germany to shut down nuclear power, they did that on their own.
- netmonk 4y ago
  This is pretty naive. Most European leaders and close counsellors are tied to young leader’s American program. So basically they are tied to USA foreign policy. It’s a secret for nobody that European Union is an USA création to destroy Europe of Nations. This explain very well to fast progress of the growing gap between European elite submissive to USA and sovereign citizen suffering on a daily basis from this absurd situation.
  - seibelj 4y ago
    That is hilarious - “all the problems of Europe are actually the USA’s fault!” Incredible
    - chihuahua 4y ago
      Pretty standard opinion around here, everything is somehow USA's fault, not just the problems of Europe.
    - netmonk 4y ago
      Since WWII, it seems so. Geographical Europe was battle ground of cold war, where the eat and west meet. When im talking about USA, im not talking about texans white trash living in a van. Im talking of all the diplomatic, lobbying and administrations tied to US political power. What nationnality is the creator of tittytainment ? For instance. « ON ASSERVIT LES PEUPLES PLUS FACILEMENT AVEC LA PORNOGRAPHIE QU’AVEC DES MIRADORS », ALEXANDRE SOLJENITSYNE which nationnality are porn content creator, provider, distributor ? when i talk about local leader brainwashing : https://ylai.state.gov/ https://ylai.state.gov/ Young leader program, under the aim to ease inter-country business relation is as a matter of fact intelligence operation to shape and control political and economical leadership of foreign countries. Here in France we have numerous example of political/economical local decision proven to be against France interest. Our own president Macron a young leader fellow, destroying one of our Industry battleship Alstom in favor of USA. open border ideology reshapping identity management of country are promoted and financed by a myriad of NGO mostly rooted in USA. more recently, almost all colored revolution in numerous countries around the globe are directly linked to local US embassy. So yes the mix between a foreign involvement and local brain washed leaders brings the desastrous situation in Europe.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

oneoff786 4y ago

It’s an interesting move. Amidst a strengthening US dollar, a sharp drop in Chinese food security that will likely depend on the US, and a pretty severe real estate crisis unfolding in China; China’s economic leverage has likely done a 180 and begun to look very vulnerable. Removing dependence on China for things, increasing China’s dependence on an independent and functional Taiwan, and just generally establishing pecking order is probably a really strong geopolitical move. I would expect that China is further shy of making serious retaliations at the moment due to dependence for food and fear of manufacturing moving to India.

dirtyid 4y ago
>it’s an interesting move. It was an US unilateral move after CHIPS4 couldn't agree on export controls that basically killed 1/3 of their semi revenue, i.e. it seems more like US desperation after being unable to get East Asian semi on board after realizing merely "sprint" strategy wasn't enough to stay ahead of PRC, but must sprint and hobble. To me it looks like essential admission that PRC will make it sooner than later, and now US is trying to buy time at all cost despite lack of cooperation from allies who will most likely start de-americanizing supply chains for that 400B PRC semi pot. >dependence on TW >shy of making serious retaliations The opposite is happening, US trying to cut PRC Off TW semi that US is 90% dependant in. So PRC now has more incentive to meddle with fabs on the island to disrupt US high tech at little cost to her own industry. I expect we're trending towards developments that will end in PRC disrupting TW fabs in the coming years to destablize US supply chains. Otherwise PRC leverage is still the same, she still has calorie food sufficiency, with now guaranteed long term supplies (grains + fertilizer) from RU. Managable real real estate crisis still being managed. Meanwhile PRC still has controls over most of supply chains and rare earth production, F35 made from PRC metals just got waiver. The reality is, PRC hasn't made serious retaliations so far because it didn't want more high tech decoupling, but once decouple past certain point, PRC hands will become freer to retaliate. We'll have to see TSMC/Samsung and other if waivers stop next year.

jonp888 4y ago

It's pretty disturbing and disgusting that the President would threaten to strip people of their citizenship for having the 'wrong' job. Is there any crime you could commit in the US that is do bad it would result in loss of citizenship? No other country would behave this way, but I guess we should expect that from one of only two countries that taxes all it citizens worldwide, even if they've never even visited the US. Given that US citizenship is difficult and ludicrously expensive to get rid of(presumably as some kind of punishment for wanting to do so) possibly some of these people might actually be happy about if they are dual citizens.

Test0129 4y ago
Generally (and it's still hard in these cases) you can lose your citizenship if you are convicted of treason, found to have served in a hostile foreign country's army, working for a country's government when you are the same nationality, etc. I'm sure a LOT of countries have laws like these in one form or the other. I'd imagine that the inside baseball on this is the US is effectively declaring China an enemy, and so therefore can make this threat. The only question is how actionable it is.
- FpUser 4y ago
  >"you can lose your citizenship if you are convicted of treason" Only if the treason was committed with the confirmed intent of loosing a citizenship. Otherwise the citizenship stays.
  - Test0129 4y ago
    I found this [0] that the logic followed is a citizenship generally has to be voluntarily resigned but several actions can make you "accidentally voluntarily resign" it so to speak. It's strange to me Biden would do this especially since we aren't in open war with China but every day I wake up this world gets more strange. It does suggest certain crimes must be done with the intent to lose your citizenship as you suggest which makes Biden's action even more dangerous. [0] https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/when-us-citizens-can-lose-us-citizenship.html https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/when-us-citizens-can...