5 ms·

As someone who also likes to watch Chuck Cook, I don't think Tesla is close to waymo. Tesla fsd in its current state will either crash or do some serious fuck

As someone who also likes to watch Chuck Cook, I don't think Tesla is close to waymo. Tesla fsd in its current state will either crash or do some serious fuck up if you let it unattended for a few hours or maybe less (based on the disengagements in those videos). Forget about driverless Tesla with the current fsd. Waymo has been operating driverless since 2019. I do agree that it is progressing very nicely. Imo tesla fsd needs 2 more years and a hardware update and it will be there.

cs702 4y ago
I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments. Otherwise, I agree that Tesla FSD Beta has been progressing nicely. I don't know if it will take 1, 2, or 5 years to get FSD Beta to an acceptable rate of graceful failures, but I agree it looks likely to get there before the end of the decade!
- Veserv 4y ago
  I've yet to see Tesla FSD Beta perform in any meaningful operational environment, no matter how restricted, within a factor of 100x of Waymo or Cruise, and Waymo and Cruise are still at least a factor of 10x off of "equal to human drivers". Superiority can not be claimed if a system is unacceptably bad in all circumstances (i.e. 1,000x worse than the minimum acceptable standard for real commercial usage) and worse in every case than a comparable alternative. It only makes sense if the system is better at something other than being allowed to create unacceptably bad results in a more diverse range of circumstances.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Tesla has not focused on any individual area to any large extent so why would you measure them on that? That not the problem they are trying to solve and its not the problem that worth investing 30 billion for. > within a factor of 100x of Waymo What's your evidence for this? Is there anybody who has done a systematic comparison of Tesla performance in Arizon zone of Waymo?
    - Veserv 4y ago
      California has a reporting requirement for all companies testing L4/5 vehicles: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto... Here is a more human digestible summary: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disengagement-report-from-california/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disen... In 2021, Waymo averaged ~7,900 miles per disengagement and Cruise averaged ~41,000. In 2020, Waymo averaged ~30,000 and Cruise around 28,500. Tesla is absent from those reports as they have deliberately declared that all of their vehicles do not even qualify as L4/5 autonomous vehicles. They have furthermore not released any 3rd party auditable metrics for any of their claims. So, from an official perspective, Tesla is infinitely worse than Waymo. From an unofficial standpoint, we can use Youtube videos and self-reported tracking by invested fans such as here https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ Both of those classes of unofficial metrics by positively biased groups consistently demonstrate around 10-20 miles per disengagement at max. As Waymo averaged 8,700 last year, that makes Tesla around 400-800x worse than Waymo as of last year and around 2,000-4,000x worse than Cruise as of last year. We can also see from the unofficial Tesla fan metrics that FSD Beta has seen no material improvement from around one year ago.
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments But you have seen how Tesla performs in such environments, and you aren't allowed to take your hands off the wheel. What makes you assume Tesla has the right approach and the other have companies have to be measured against it?
  - cs702 4y ago
    I never said that Tesla has the right approach nor that other companies have to be measured against it. What I did say is that I perceive Tesla FSD Beta as now being significantly ahead, based on the beta-tester videos I've been seen online. BTW, a year ago, I wouldn't have said that about Tesla FSD Beta.
Initial_BP 4y ago
I totally agree with you that Tesla FSD seems more likely yo have a serious crash, but if actual fully autonomous cars are the end goal, then the behavior of learning/beta models doesn't really matter except to the extent that it let's them get to the end goal (for the sake of this argument). All fully autonomous cars are in a different legal situation then Tesla. Tesla sells Joe Shmoe a car and then tells him he can rub FSD but he's responsible and has to remain attentive then they get info about every disengagement and (mostly) avoid legal responsibility or accidents in many cases. Waymo is fully responsible for every accident, etc so they HAVE to proceed more cautiously or they'll lose the ability to run their cars. As someone else pointed out they often are only operated in very specific areas, and often even specific streets within a geofence. So while on the surface Waymo may have full self driving operating more effectively with less problems, they're doing so in a much more controlled environment and not getting the variety of data that Tesla has from cars disengaging Literally anywhere in the US.
- andbberger 4y ago
  > but if actual fully autonomous cars are the end goal, then the behavior of learning/beta models doesn't really matter i didn't sign up to be killed by some idiot tech bro testing a class project where they plumbed alexnet into the steering wheel of a 2000kg vehicle and took a couple of steps downhill the streets are already dangerous enough for pedestrians

cs702 4y ago

I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments. Otherwise, I agree that Tesla FSD Beta has been progressing nicely. I don't know if it will take 1, 2, or 5 years to get FSD Beta to an acceptable rate of graceful failures, but I agree it looks likely to get there before the end of the decade!

Veserv 4y ago
I've yet to see Tesla FSD Beta perform in any meaningful operational environment, no matter how restricted, within a factor of 100x of Waymo or Cruise, and Waymo and Cruise are still at least a factor of 10x off of "equal to human drivers". Superiority can not be claimed if a system is unacceptably bad in all circumstances (i.e. 1,000x worse than the minimum acceptable standard for real commercial usage) and worse in every case than a comparable alternative. It only makes sense if the system is better at something other than being allowed to create unacceptably bad results in a more diverse range of circumstances.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Tesla has not focused on any individual area to any large extent so why would you measure them on that? That not the problem they are trying to solve and its not the problem that worth investing 30 billion for. > within a factor of 100x of Waymo What's your evidence for this? Is there anybody who has done a systematic comparison of Tesla performance in Arizon zone of Waymo?
  - Veserv 4y ago
    California has a reporting requirement for all companies testing L4/5 vehicles: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/disengagement-reports/ https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto... Here is a more human digestible summary: https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disengagement-report-from-california/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/02/09/2021-disen... In 2021, Waymo averaged ~7,900 miles per disengagement and Cruise averaged ~41,000. In 2020, Waymo averaged ~30,000 and Cruise around 28,500. Tesla is absent from those reports as they have deliberately declared that all of their vehicles do not even qualify as L4/5 autonomous vehicles. They have furthermore not released any 3rd party auditable metrics for any of their claims. So, from an official perspective, Tesla is infinitely worse than Waymo. From an unofficial standpoint, we can use Youtube videos and self-reported tracking by invested fans such as here https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ Both of those classes of unofficial metrics by positively biased groups consistently demonstrate around 10-20 miles per disengagement at max. As Waymo averaged 8,700 last year, that makes Tesla around 400-800x worse than Waymo as of last year and around 2,000-4,000x worse than Cruise as of last year. We can also see from the unofficial Tesla fan metrics that FSD Beta has seen no material improvement from around one year ago.
itsoktocry 4y ago
>I've yet to see how Waymo and other self-driving systems perform in open-ended testing, outside tightly restricted, geofenced environments But you have seen how Tesla performs in such environments, and you aren't allowed to take your hands off the wheel. What makes you assume Tesla has the right approach and the other have companies have to be measured against it?
- cs702 4y ago
  I never said that Tesla has the right approach nor that other companies have to be measured against it. What I did say is that I perceive Tesla FSD Beta as now being significantly ahead, based on the beta-tester videos I've been seen online. BTW, a year ago, I wouldn't have said that about Tesla FSD Beta.

Initial_BP 4y ago

I totally agree with you that Tesla FSD seems more likely yo have a serious crash, but if actual fully autonomous cars are the end goal, then the behavior of learning/beta models doesn't really matter except to the extent that it let's them get to the end goal (for the sake of this argument). All fully autonomous cars are in a different legal situation then Tesla. Tesla sells Joe Shmoe a car and then tells him he can rub FSD but he's responsible and has to remain attentive then they get info about every disengagement and (mostly) avoid legal responsibility or accidents in many cases. Waymo is fully responsible for every accident, etc so they HAVE to proceed more cautiously or they'll lose the ability to run their cars. As someone else pointed out they often are only operated in very specific areas, and often even specific streets within a geofence. So while on the surface Waymo may have full self driving operating more effectively with less problems, they're doing so in a much more controlled environment and not getting the variety of data that Tesla has from cars disengaging Literally anywhere in the US.

andbberger 4y ago
> but if actual fully autonomous cars are the end goal, then the behavior of learning/beta models doesn't really matter i didn't sign up to be killed by some idiot tech bro testing a class project where they plumbed alexnet into the steering wheel of a 2000kg vehicle and took a couple of steps downhill the streets are already dangerous enough for pedestrians