3 ms·
It’s not about the amount of measurement points, uncertainties in dollar amounts tend to scale as sqrt. When you error propagate that you see that inflation unc
by ivalm 4y ago
It’s not about the amount of measurement points, uncertainties in dollar amounts tend to scale as sqrt. When you error propagate that you see that inflation uncertainty scales with inflation.
Very simple model
Inflation=v1/v2
D(inflation)=sqrt((D(v1)/v2)^2+(v1/v2^2 D(v2))^2)
Suppose
D(v1)=c sqrt(v1)
D(v2)=c sqrt(v2)
D(inflation)=c sqrt(v1/v2^2+v1^2/v2^3)= c sqrt(inflation+inflation^2)/sqrt(v2)
So can be seen that the leading term for uncertainty in inflation is linear with inflation.