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If you believe that, you're probably in a cult. The most extreme climate models don't predict anything you could reasonably characterize as "won't be a planet

If you believe that, you're probably in a cult. The most extreme climate models don't predict anything you could reasonably characterize as "won't be a planet left."

naillo 4y ago
Not to start this whole flamewar but I was totally in the other camp (not yours) and then covid hit and now my trust in consensus science is super worn out and have basically started to believe it might be fine.
- MichaelCollins 4y ago
  The "consensus science" doesn't say anything about the "end of the world" or societal collapse in 20 years.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Social science is far from exact enough to predict either eventuality with any confidence. If waves of tens or hundreds of millions of refugees leaving places they cannot live in any longer begin sweeping across borders, how long will it be before fascist governments, already threatening, and already winning in Turkey, Poland, Russia, Belarus, the Philippines, Brazil, Hungary, Italy, and India take over generally and initiate wars, as they do? Such wars might not go thermonuclear, but they would certainly disrupt fragile global trade networks.
    - MichaelCollins 4y ago
      People have had terrible governments before, for most of human history in fact. I do expect global social conditions to deteriorate as climate change strains countries, but that's a far cry from the end of the planet. As for global thermonuclear war, we could wargame likely scenarios and potential outcomes endlessly until the day it might actually happen. But anybody who tells you with certainty that one will happen in the next 20 years so there's no sense planning for the future (e.g. no sense building a power plant that will be used 20 years from now) is trying to indoctrinate you into a doomsday cult.
      - ncmncm 4y ago
        Nobody suggested power plants should not be constructed. At issue is what to construct. Starting nukes now brings catastrophe nearer, as they displace exactly zero CO2 output for many years, vs. alternatives that start displacing CO2 output immediately.
        tored 4y ago
        What can be built now that displaces CO2 immediately?
        ncmncm 4y ago
        tored 4y ago
        Can’t be be build immediately.
locallost 4y ago
I am in the cult of "living in the present, where one part of the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Recently I joined a second cult called "it's only going to get worse". So what the heck, we've got money and time for expensive solutions that take forever to finish.
- MichaelCollins 4y ago
  > where one part of the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Nothing happening today, extrapolated out to 20 years with the most severe climate models, will be severe enough to cause the "end of the world". Anybody who's telling you we'll have total societal collapse by 2042 is out of touch with reality. The only way for things to go that badly that fast is for Earth to be hit by something big from space, but that is very unlikely to happen in any given 20 year period.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    You seem very certain of your facts. I can only say that you are probably right. But we don't know if the ocean ecosystem will collapse in that time, bringing down civilization. The thing about collapse is that it happens terrifyingly fast, and is only sometimes predicted accurately.
    - MichaelCollins 4y ago
      Even if the oceans were utterly sterilized today, with all the atmospheric implications that go with that, it would take longer than 20 years for Sweden to no longer exist. I'm not saying that climate change won't cause huge environmental disasters and social unrest, because it will. I'm saying that "there won't be a planet left after 20 years" is extreme pessimism and unsupported by any model backed by science, even if you read that claim generously and assume "won't be a planet left" is merely hyperbole for the collapse of Swedish society.
      - 4y ago

If you believe that, you're probably in a cult. The most extreme climate models don't predict anything you could reasonably characterize as "won't be a planet left."

naillo 4y ago

Not to start this whole flamewar but I was totally in the other camp (not yours) and then covid hit and now my trust in consensus science is super worn out and have basically started to believe it might be fine.

MichaelCollins 4y ago
The "consensus science" doesn't say anything about the "end of the world" or societal collapse in 20 years.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Social science is far from exact enough to predict either eventuality with any confidence. If waves of tens or hundreds of millions of refugees leaving places they cannot live in any longer begin sweeping across borders, how long will it be before fascist governments, already threatening, and already winning in Turkey, Poland, Russia, Belarus, the Philippines, Brazil, Hungary, Italy, and India take over generally and initiate wars, as they do? Such wars might not go thermonuclear, but they would certainly disrupt fragile global trade networks.
  - MichaelCollins 4y ago
    People have had terrible governments before, for most of human history in fact. I do expect global social conditions to deteriorate as climate change strains countries, but that's a far cry from the end of the planet. As for global thermonuclear war, we could wargame likely scenarios and potential outcomes endlessly until the day it might actually happen. But anybody who tells you with certainty that one will happen in the next 20 years so there's no sense planning for the future (e.g. no sense building a power plant that will be used 20 years from now) is trying to indoctrinate you into a doomsday cult.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Nobody suggested power plants should not be constructed. At issue is what to construct. Starting nukes now brings catastrophe nearer, as they displace exactly zero CO2 output for many years, vs. alternatives that start displacing CO2 output immediately.
      - tored 4y ago
        What can be built now that displaces CO2 immediately?
        ncmncm 4y ago
        tored 4y ago
        Can’t be be build immediately.

locallost 4y ago

I am in the cult of "living in the present, where one part of the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Recently I joined a second cult called "it's only going to get worse". So what the heck, we've got money and time for expensive solutions that take forever to finish.

MichaelCollins 4y ago
> where one part of the world has experienced one of the severest droughts in the history of mankind, and the other the worst floods". Nothing happening today, extrapolated out to 20 years with the most severe climate models, will be severe enough to cause the "end of the world". Anybody who's telling you we'll have total societal collapse by 2042 is out of touch with reality. The only way for things to go that badly that fast is for Earth to be hit by something big from space, but that is very unlikely to happen in any given 20 year period.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  You seem very certain of your facts. I can only say that you are probably right. But we don't know if the ocean ecosystem will collapse in that time, bringing down civilization. The thing about collapse is that it happens terrifyingly fast, and is only sometimes predicted accurately.
  - MichaelCollins 4y ago
    Even if the oceans were utterly sterilized today, with all the atmospheric implications that go with that, it would take longer than 20 years for Sweden to no longer exist. I'm not saying that climate change won't cause huge environmental disasters and social unrest, because it will. I'm saying that "there won't be a planet left after 20 years" is extreme pessimism and unsupported by any model backed by science, even if you read that claim generously and assume "won't be a planet left" is merely hyperbole for the collapse of Swedish society.
    - 4y ago