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Battery prices will increase in the near future, not decrease We should extract 30x times more lithium and rare earths to make your strategy work [1] And 80%

Battery prices will increase in the near future, not decrease We should extract 30x times more lithium and rare earths to make your strategy work [1] And 80% of rare earths is extracted in China [0], creating a similar situation Europe has with Russia [0] https://www.mining-technology.com/analysis/china-rare-earths-dominance-mining/ https://www.mining-technology.com/analysis/china-rare-earths... [1] https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/mineral-requirements-for-clean-energy-transitions https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in...

epistasis 4y ago
Even if batteries increase now, they will drop more in the future as production capacity ramps up. Same thing happens again and again for every other tech curve, for example solar. A price drop suddenly makes an entirely new application class cost feasible, and there's a non-linearity in the demand function, and demand explodes. We are currently at one of those non-linear increases in demand. Additionally, we are experiencing massive supply chain bill whip effects across the entire economy. Increasing extraction is happening and will continue to happen. But also take into account that a lot of the price drops come from needing to use fewer input materials. Rare earths are not relevant for current battery technologies. Further, there are plenty of other sources of rare earths that will open up as we need more in the future.
Schroedingersat 4y ago
Do try to keep up. Prussian blue sodium ion mass manufacturing is starting up as we speak. They use abundant materials and most of the same manufacturing processes as lithium.
naasking 4y ago
> We should extract 30x times more lithium and rare earths to make your strategy work I don't know why everyone focuses on lithium, as if battery tech has reached its pinnacle and will no longer change. Lithium is only the latest element used in batteries, it will not be the last or necessarily even the best. Sodium batteries are already in production, for instance, and sodium is ridiculously abundant and cheap and the power density is comparable to lithium ion. Solid state batteries are also starting production. Lithium and rare earths are not needed for any of these.

epistasis 4y ago

Even if batteries increase now, they will drop more in the future as production capacity ramps up. Same thing happens again and again for every other tech curve, for example solar. A price drop suddenly makes an entirely new application class cost feasible, and there's a non-linearity in the demand function, and demand explodes. We are currently at one of those non-linear increases in demand. Additionally, we are experiencing massive supply chain bill whip effects across the entire economy. Increasing extraction is happening and will continue to happen. But also take into account that a lot of the price drops come from needing to use fewer input materials. Rare earths are not relevant for current battery technologies. Further, there are plenty of other sources of rare earths that will open up as we need more in the future.

Schroedingersat 4y ago

Do try to keep up. Prussian blue sodium ion mass manufacturing is starting up as we speak. They use abundant materials and most of the same manufacturing processes as lithium.

naasking 4y ago

> We should extract 30x times more lithium and rare earths to make your strategy work I don't know why everyone focuses on lithium, as if battery tech has reached its pinnacle and will no longer change. Lithium is only the latest element used in batteries, it will not be the last or necessarily even the best. Sodium batteries are already in production, for instance, and sodium is ridiculously abundant and cheap and the power density is comparable to lithium ion. Solid state batteries are also starting production. Lithium and rare earths are not needed for any of these.