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As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out
- firstSpeaker 4y agohttps://archive.ph/FYSHl https://archive.ph/FYSHl
- nicbou 4y agoI find this really hard to believe. In practical terms, is life getting better or worse for the average Russian, and how does it compare to life for the average European?
- testACCT321 4y ago
- yurish 4y agoWorse. Food have become more expensive although prices rise slowed down. Many clothing brands have left and replaced with brands from Turkey etc. But we are not starving, have gas, electricity.
- pokepim 4y agoWell sounds like many parts of EU then. In Netherlands restaurant prices have gone up 20-30% this year. When visiting Poland I have seen food prices to be as high or even higher than in Netherlands while they earn 3 or 4 times less on average. It used to be cheap to go to Poland but this year quite crazy. I feel bad for them, looks like their government really fucked up, also the sanctions are backfiring badly over there
- PartiallyTyped 4y agoAnd that's not even the whole story. As an SDE, after taxes, SS (that I will not ever use), and rent+utils, I am left with 750 euro of disposable income. My effective taxrate is 38%. To have the same taxrate in Denmark you'd have to earn around 650k DKK, so close to 80K euro, not the 36k I am earning.
- badpun 4y ago> To have the same taxrate in Denmark you'd have to earn around 650k DKK, so close to 80K euro, not the 36k I am earning. Or just start contacting, like many SDEs in Poland do, then your effective tax rate (taxes + health insurance + social security) is around 15-17%. The reality in Poland is that full-time employment (as opposed to self-employment) is for suckers.
- PartiallyTyped 4y agoI don't think it's possible to do that with Amazon :/
- lovich 4y agoFood prices are higher because global agricultural output had a major drop last year[1]. Every major food producing region of the world was hit by covid induced labor and equipment shortages, bad weather, or war, or some combination of them all. [1]https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf
- webmobdev 4y agoNot to mention that a quarter of the world's wheat come from Russia and Ukraine - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-... ...
- seydor 4y agowhat is the average rise in prices since last year?
- yurish 4y agoHard to tell, prices raised unevenly. Real estate have become very expensive. As for day-to-day spendings my unscientific gut feeling tells me that I spend somewhere 25% more. Official figures of inflation something like 12-15%.
- slaw 4y agoWhy real estate become even more expensive?
- yurish 4y agoSeveral reasons. It started during COVID times when it was not clear if we are facing new economic crisis. So wealthy people used real estate to protect their savings. Then the government decided to support construction companies by subsidising mortgage for young families and as a result stimulating demand. And now again uncertainty of current situation stimulate people invest their savings in something safe. On the other hand sellers were afraid that ruble will fail significantly and raised prices so high that sells almost stopped. Right now prices to real estate are going down a bit.
- slaw 4y agoThank you for answer. The same situation is in all economies where government prints money and people are afraid currency will lose value so it it better to keep wealth in real estate.
- seydor 4y agothat's as much as it is in europe
- nicbou 4y ago
- rivalin 4y ago
- lapinot 4y agoThe main supporting graph: "percent change on previous month, annualized". So this is like, a relative rate-of-change measure? (of what exactly?) Can we have absolute rate-of-change or absolute values of this thing? (it's not as if some decent range of the economic output is unknown) Also this graph is far too short in timescale especially since it's dealing with the recent past: we know these indicators are very noisy around the now point. wtf this is garbage
- dimitar 4y agoIt is using some sort of an alternative to GDP, but I don't understand why they made that choice: "The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is an alternative summary measure of economic growth constructed from major real activity indicators. The CAI includes both “hard” and “soft” economic indicators, and it puts a relatively high weight on the latter."
- firstSpeaker 4y agoIt is pretty hard for me to find credible analysis. Anyone on HN has a source they recommend around the economic situation in Russia vs Europe?
- zo1 4y agoPersonally, I try soak up nuggets of info from "alt right", libertarian and prepper channels or sources. If you're comfortable wading through things you disagree with, then you will get a ton of info. There is just something too "sanitized" and "prepared" about mainstream sources that I actively distrust them on any heated topic.
- webmobdev 4y agoIf you are confident about this, then do share the actual content and sources that you think we should read so that we can judge for ourselves how credible they are.
- mint2 4y agoYou’re recommending the likes of Breitbart and other alt right fringe sites as a way to get credible info?! Orgs that claim to be “Unfiltered” or any spin on that usually actually mean “reporting twisted to support our skewed fringe viewpoint.”
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- theprincess 4y agoThat's like panning for gold in a sewer. Hope you don't get a disease. The far right has viral memes tailor made for radicalizing slightly paranoid white guys by making them more and more comfortable with the things you're "wading through" right now. If you aren't wary five years from now you'll be a paranoid mess staying up at night reading Culture of Critique and sending pdfs of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion to your buddies. Saw it happen to a "libertarian" friend of my husband. Guy went from relatively normal to belonging on an FBI watch list.
- empressplay 4y agoPeople understandably don't want to accept that Russia, China and India have gone all in with each other, because of the future ramifications, but it is what it is, and we're much better off if we start figuring out how we can get along in that sort of world.
- nine_zeros 4y agoI don't understand why people think Russia, China and India are united. They aren't. China and India are rivals and have skirmishes on their borders. China doesn't want to trade only with Russia at the expense of the rest of the world. The only thing that can make that alignment happen is a common enemy. And only Russia views America as a true enemy. It's not as simple as the media makes it out. Another way to think about this, if a WW3 breaks out, its not clear that China will defend Russia. And India and China certainly won't defend each other.
- testrun 4y agoChina certainly sees the USA as an enemy. You just need to follow the Chinese sponsored media (Global Times etc) to see it.
- testrun 4y agoIndia and China are members of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) as well as India participated in the Russian led Vostok military drills (China also participated). The relationship between China and India is complicated.
- nine_zeros 4y agoIndia also joins military drills with US, Japan and Australia. India sells weapons to nations threatened by China. They are truly third world. From the lens of their media, an alliance with China would appear absurd.
- Scarblac 4y agoThey haven't. For instance, China hasn't even recognized Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea.
- Proven 4y agoMere weeks ago The Economist was claiming Russia's economy was collapsing under the weight of sanctions... Were they merely clueless, or is this article telling the readers sanctions aren't working that great and we should support peace negotiations? Especially with yields on debt of one of leading proxy warriors - the UK - entering a dangerous zone...
- chewz 4y agoIs it suprising to anyone? EU put sanctions on itself, effectively forcing rapid de-industralization (so lower exports), loss of currency value (so more costly imports) and high debts which could not be serviced. Russia on the other hand is debt-free and increased its revenues from natural resources. MacroVoices #345 Daniel Lacalle: The Situation in Europe is Worse Than You Think - https://www.macrovoices.com/1122-macrovoices-345-daniel-lacalle-the-situation-in-europe-is-worse-than-you-think https://www.macrovoices.com/1122-macrovoices-345-daniel-laca...
- qsdf38100 4y ago
- ifqwz 4y ago
- rivalin 4y ago
- dang 4y agoPlease do not post flamewar comments to HN. We ban accounts that post like this because it destroys what this site is supposed to be for. We've had to ask you about this once already. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- qsdf38100 4y agoIt’s not flamewar. If we can’t reply to trolls, you are protecting trolls. For "free speech" I guess? If this site is now a portal for Russian trolls, then please, ban me. We’ll see what HN stand for.
- dang 4y agoThis is about comment quality. The comment you posted was low quality, information-free flamebait. That's not what this site is for, so please don't post like that. Assuming you have a substantive position about an interesting topic, it ought to be possible to comment thoughtfully. If not, the thing to do is not post. Btw, please stop posting political/ideological/nationalistic battle comments to HN. I saw quite a few of those in your recent feed, and that's also not what HN is for. It's for intellectual curiosity, which is something else entirely. This has nothing to do with what your views are or who you're for or against. We don't care and we don't track that. The idea that the mods must secretly be in cahoots with the enemy is pretty much what everyone with strong feelings feels when they get a moderation scolding, but it's an illusion. We're just trying to have a specific kind of internet forum and hopefully prevent it from destroying itself.
- qsdf38100 4y agoIt’s incredible what money can do. I’m sorry but this article smells Russian money an awful lot. It’s very not subtle, trying to influence us to think Russia is too strong, can’t be stopped, and trying to will hurt us, not them. I don’t buy it. I think it’s a sign of desperation, their propaganda and their supporters are increasingly obvious. Not saying sanctions don’t have an effect on western economies, but this article bends reality to the absurd. As usual with alt right and Russian state media.
- missedthecue 4y agoAre you sure you aren't suffering from a case of confirmation bias here? I have noticed, especially in circles like Twitter or HN that people are very eager to accept and buy into reports that the Russian economy is doing poorly, but if Western sources, media, analysts, companies, think-tanks, and agencies report that Russia might not be doing as poorly as we thought, the amount of suspicion and the level of hard-facts standards suddenly goes through the roof. This can cause us to reach at rather silly lengths to explain away these reports using whatever reasoning necessary. On the other hand, maybe you're right, and maybe The Economist, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, and the numerous other sources referenced in the article have all been compromised by the KGB within the past several months and have been turned into Kremlin propaganda pieces.
- qsdf38100 4y agoYou might be right. But note that the KGB doesn't need to fully compromise some trusted medias. It's often just an "opinion" paper, from one guy. You just have to influence a few journalists. And it might not always be money. It might be embarassing intel, like things ready to be "leaked", it might be promises, conflict of interests... And then there are always people doing it for free, because they have come to believe the Russian State Media alternate reality.
- yucky 4y agoWhat is more likely, that The Economist is Russian propaganda now or that you might be wrong?
- Mikeb85 4y ago
- rivalin 4y ago
- lovich 4y agoAre there any details as to how this was accomplished? It kinda just lists everything that went bad for the Russian economy and then claims that it’s not in a recession without showing a mechanism as to how that was accomplished. As far as I can tell it’s also just sourcing Russian claims on their economy while Russia is currently in a massive propaganda campaign? I could believe they managed to innovate their way out of their problems but it’s an extraordinary claim given the time frame and I’d like to see some evidence for it
- Giorgi 4y agoTrust me bro
- dimitar 4y agoThis is some sort of horse-race journalism for quarterly and yearly economic indicators. The news are not good for Russia. The more interesting comment was buried at the end - the IMF have upgraded the GDP growth from -6% to -3%, but that is apparently due to military spending (demand side of the economy). That is still negative. And even the military stimulus ils not something they can do indefinitely. Eventually OPEC+ will lower oil prices and Russia will suffer immensely. In the long run the supply side is heavily damaged due to sanctions, lack of investment and brain-drain.
- rasz 4y agoThis is russian prosperity: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580874187362553857 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580874187362553857 "Spring is here, if there is no water just go to the spring."
- dang 4y agoNo nationalistic flamewar on HN, please. From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html: "Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive." Edit: We've had to ask you this kind of thing several times in the past, including just recently (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32922335 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32922335). Please don't keep doing it.