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Yes, the IFR has been consistently estimated at 0.4 to 0.7 since February 2020. 0.5% of 8B world population works out to 160M excess deaths. This calculation as
by random314 4y ago
Yes, the IFR has been consistently estimated at 0.4 to 0.7 since February 2020. 0.5% of 8B world population works out to 160M excess deaths. This calculation assumes availability of medical facilities at 100% with no dead doctors or nurses. I don't think our public facilities can handle so many excess dead bodies unless we let some float down the river.
https://www.google.com/search?q=india+covid+19+floating+bodies+street+pyres https://www.google.com/search?q=india+covid+19+floating+bodi...
March 2020 - IFR estimate in China 0.6%, CFR in China estimated as 1.2%
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118348/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118348/
"Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89–6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38–3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3–2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2–1.3), respectively."
March 2020 - Symptomatic case fatality risk 1.4%
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
"Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk"