You can just guess, sometimes based on past experience! The same thing that you do already - but calling that probability as many other people do. There is no s

You can just guess, sometimes based on past experience! The same thing that you do already - but calling that probability as many other people do. There is no shame in saying things like “it’s twice as likely to happen as not”, assigning the numerical values 2/3 and 1/3 and using probability theory to work on those numbers.