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"C) there is no difference between saying "There is a 40% chance it happens" and "There is a 60% chance it happens" AND "If there is no difference how could i
by ThomPete 4y ago
"C) there is no difference between saying "There is a 40% chance it happens" and "There is a 60% chance it happens"
AND
"If there is no difference how could it be based on past experience or whatever?"
These are two different propositions and questions.
Past experiences can tell me that if I see dark clouds then it could mean rain.
I could be wrong, I could be right, but I have no way of calculating the probability of that.
- kgwgk 4y agoYou can just guess, sometimes based on past experience! The same thing that you do already - but calling that probability as many other people do. There is no shame in saying things like “it’s twice as likely to happen as not”, assigning the numerical values 2/3 and 1/3 and using probability theory to work on those numbers.