3 ms·
How to Avoid a War over Taiwan
- sylware 4y agoUS policy to move back top notch chip fabs in the US means they are dropping the ball. But all that will take time, a lot.
- Kenji 4y ago
- ngcc_hk 4y agoReasonable analysis but the underlying assumption that US is a key player has diminished. One can see the key to Ukraine so far successful defend is that the Ukrainian has willing to defend. But Ukraine like USA failed to see Putin coming (other than warning by USA that the war is immanent by the time it might be too late for some silly head that Russia can win quickly). The issue will be tested when mainland started some occupation of Taiwan outlying island (like Putin did and German then ok it with Stream II pipeline). Then it will move to occupy some lands and really testing the nerve. The key will be any local who will revolt against the Taiwan authority like Ukraine Russian speaking locals. Taiwan sea part is both an advantage and an disadvantage. The move will be obvious if occupation is the aim. However, looking at Ukraine after the initial failure to get the capital, Russia basically just bomb. That is the question then what allies can do. Can Taiwan bomb back as a threat? HK, Shanghai or even Beijing? Military based targets? Or like Ukraine it is not allowed and just be bombed basically in its own land. Will large scale sanction come? Given the GDP of China is 10x and link so hugh, can there be real sanction if they just do this (small outlying island) and bomb here and there? The raise of totalitarian China and the de facto policy of agree to that is the major strategic issue. Karma it is it will take a lot of efforts, not just let us status quo can do. Putin attacked I suspect is due to his old age. How old is Xin or the next generations of old man.