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We are barely in the early stages of automation and digitalisation. There may be a temporary bump but we are nowhere near where we should be in terms of automat

We are barely in the early stages of automation and digitalisation. There may be a temporary bump but we are nowhere near where we should be in terms of automating things. Let alone the existing code that needs maintenance. Large and boring companies, the Chryslers of the software world, will undergo a slowdown. There will be new tech and process coming around. We still have trains driven by people, planes flown by pilots, factory floors maned by workers, tills handled by cashiers, cars that dont drive themselves, we dont yet have robots coming to our door, and so on. The current state is just the beginning.

throwaway2037 4y ago
This: "We are barely in the early stages of automation". I would disagree from the perspective of manufacturing. Most people do not realise how much automation has occurred in the last 30 years. The labour cost per unit of manufactured product continues to fall at an incredible rate. The future feels like a bunch of 99% automated factories in the middle of nowhere. It seems scary to imagine the day when someone can manufacture a car (end-to-end) with almost zero labour input. Imagine: Semi-autonomous robots at all points in the supply chain: Mining, refining, steel & aluminum production, deliveries (driving trucks), car manuf. plant. But, yes, I do agree that this statement is generally true for services industries ("office work / retail").
- lolinder 4y ago
  The factory automation you're talking about is the culmination of the industrial automation that started in the 1800s, so it's no surprise that it's so far ahead. Information automation, on the other hand, is still very much in its infancy. Not just office and retail—construction, farming, and medicine are huge growth areas for IT right now.
- yrgulation 4y ago
  "I would disagree from the perspective of manufacturing" as long as we are not at a stage i like to call FaaS (Factory as a Service) we are no there yet. Full automation means self driving trucks unloaded by robots that place raw materials on manufacturing lines which after fully automated processed are packed and loaded into self driving trucks.
- Hermitian909 4y ago
  There's also a lot of automation to be done before a factory begins producing something. There are large capital costs, and even larger opportunity costs, to the really slow testing setups for all kinds of industrial goods. For the area I'm most familiar with, batteries, a novel chemical composition for a battery can take 5-10 years, to hit market (leaning towards the latter end of the spectrum). IMO this could be brought down to 6-12 months with much lower capital costs.

throwaway2037 4y ago

This: "We are barely in the early stages of automation". I would disagree from the perspective of manufacturing. Most people do not realise how much automation has occurred in the last 30 years. The labour cost per unit of manufactured product continues to fall at an incredible rate. The future feels like a bunch of 99% automated factories in the middle of nowhere. It seems scary to imagine the day when someone can manufacture a car (end-to-end) with almost zero labour input. Imagine: Semi-autonomous robots at all points in the supply chain: Mining, refining, steel & aluminum production, deliveries (driving trucks), car manuf. plant. But, yes, I do agree that this statement is generally true for services industries ("office work / retail").

lolinder 4y ago
The factory automation you're talking about is the culmination of the industrial automation that started in the 1800s, so it's no surprise that it's so far ahead. Information automation, on the other hand, is still very much in its infancy. Not just office and retail—construction, farming, and medicine are huge growth areas for IT right now.
yrgulation 4y ago
"I would disagree from the perspective of manufacturing" as long as we are not at a stage i like to call FaaS (Factory as a Service) we are no there yet. Full automation means self driving trucks unloaded by robots that place raw materials on manufacturing lines which after fully automated processed are packed and loaded into self driving trucks.
Hermitian909 4y ago
There's also a lot of automation to be done before a factory begins producing something. There are large capital costs, and even larger opportunity costs, to the really slow testing setups for all kinds of industrial goods. For the area I'm most familiar with, batteries, a novel chemical composition for a battery can take 5-10 years, to hit market (leaning towards the latter end of the spectrum). IMO this could be brought down to 6-12 months with much lower capital costs.