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Tech is pretty different in that its whole point is automation and reduction of redundancies. I would imagine over time there wouldn’t be a need for a mediocre

Tech is pretty different in that its whole point is automation and reduction of redundancies. I would imagine over time there wouldn’t be a need for a mediocre engineers as their jobs would just be done by code written one time by a superior engineer. We’ve seem this already happen to “mom and pop” web dev shops getting pushed out by the work of a handful of companies (Weebly, squarespace, Shopify).

adam_arthur 4y ago
Yup, a single dev can build out a massive business via severless cloud components in what used to take a large army of engineers. It just so happens job growth has historically exceeded efficiency gains. The equilibrium point seems close from my perspective, especially if there’s a shock of recession to hammer tech employment
- ethbr0 4y ago
  The real value add of software engineering hasn't been code for awhile, it's figuring out what code needs to be written and which architecture/services are the most efficient to implement it.
  - adam_arthur 4y ago
    Yes, same as the value of a plumber, electrician or architect. Difference there is there isn't a supply/demand imbalance of labor in those jobs. And there soon won't be one in engineering either
    - S201 4y ago
      Have you tried to call an electrician or plumber recently? Assuming you can even get one on the phone, they can basically name their price for any job.
      - lanstin 4y ago
        Especially in Silicon Valley.
    - davewritescode 4y ago
      That’s a very hard prediction to make. The most expensive part of software is maintenance and it’s not decreasing over time.
      - adam_arthur 4y ago
        Of course it's decreasing. The amount of people required to maintain an application of a given size continues to drop significantly over time. Something like Docusign, once built out, could be maintained by a handful of people using serverless components. Same thing with Twitter and pretty much every other application.
        Hermitian909 4y ago
        Interestingly, as a side effect of this, the marginal gains on the most skilled engineers continues to increase. For certain classes of work it is very difficult to hire even at the top of the market. There are positions my company would happily pay a million/yr to fill and simply cannot find anyone who meets the requirements.
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        Yes, so the median wage declines, and the wage of the most productive increases. You'll have 20% or fewer of engineers doing most of the work. The amount of impact an individual can have has never been higher
        jamesfinlayson 4y ago
        What sort of positions out of curiosity?
        Hermitian909 4y ago
        It's hard to list all of the sorts because sometimes the needs are quite nebulous. Sometimes it's someone who's a great engineer who's just... really great at certain kinds of growth hacking, whatever that entails. These are more "you know it when you see" opportunities. Engineering leadership can be sort of similar. The kind of person who can "make things happen". More technical roles are often easier to describe. A few concrete examples: Someone who got their PhD researching databases who is also a very experienced software engineer. A senior software engineer who's worked for a few years in the finance world, and understands some of the more advanced math like stochastic calculus. Someone with experience helping hypergrowth mode startups whose main DB is MySql to adopt Vitess.
yrgulation 4y ago
> We’ve seem this already happen to “mom and pop” web dev shops getting pushed out by the work of a handful of companies (Weebly, squarespace, Shopify). Yet automattic is a 7 billion dollar company and wordpress runs almost half the web. Point being that if anything weebly and such lowered the entry bar for small businesses. Of which some are lucky and move upwards, driving demand for devs. I like to call such companies and tools facilitators. The more, the easier for non tech people to enter the digital business world, and the more demand for developers.

adam_arthur 4y ago

Yup, a single dev can build out a massive business via severless cloud components in what used to take a large army of engineers. It just so happens job growth has historically exceeded efficiency gains. The equilibrium point seems close from my perspective, especially if there’s a shock of recession to hammer tech employment

ethbr0 4y ago
The real value add of software engineering hasn't been code for awhile, it's figuring out what code needs to be written and which architecture/services are the most efficient to implement it.
- adam_arthur 4y ago
  Yes, same as the value of a plumber, electrician or architect. Difference there is there isn't a supply/demand imbalance of labor in those jobs. And there soon won't be one in engineering either
  - S201 4y ago
    Have you tried to call an electrician or plumber recently? Assuming you can even get one on the phone, they can basically name their price for any job.
    - lanstin 4y ago
      Especially in Silicon Valley.
  - davewritescode 4y ago
    That’s a very hard prediction to make. The most expensive part of software is maintenance and it’s not decreasing over time.
    - adam_arthur 4y ago
      Of course it's decreasing. The amount of people required to maintain an application of a given size continues to drop significantly over time. Something like Docusign, once built out, could be maintained by a handful of people using serverless components. Same thing with Twitter and pretty much every other application.
      - Hermitian909 4y ago
        Interestingly, as a side effect of this, the marginal gains on the most skilled engineers continues to increase. For certain classes of work it is very difficult to hire even at the top of the market. There are positions my company would happily pay a million/yr to fill and simply cannot find anyone who meets the requirements.
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        Yes, so the median wage declines, and the wage of the most productive increases. You'll have 20% or fewer of engineers doing most of the work. The amount of impact an individual can have has never been higher
        jamesfinlayson 4y ago
        What sort of positions out of curiosity?
        Hermitian909 4y ago
        It's hard to list all of the sorts because sometimes the needs are quite nebulous. Sometimes it's someone who's a great engineer who's just... really great at certain kinds of growth hacking, whatever that entails. These are more "you know it when you see" opportunities. Engineering leadership can be sort of similar. The kind of person who can "make things happen". More technical roles are often easier to describe. A few concrete examples: Someone who got their PhD researching databases who is also a very experienced software engineer. A senior software engineer who's worked for a few years in the finance world, and understands some of the more advanced math like stochastic calculus. Someone with experience helping hypergrowth mode startups whose main DB is MySql to adopt Vitess.

yrgulation 4y ago

> We’ve seem this already happen to “mom and pop” web dev shops getting pushed out by the work of a handful of companies (Weebly, squarespace, Shopify). Yet automattic is a 7 billion dollar company and wordpress runs almost half the web. Point being that if anything weebly and such lowered the entry bar for small businesses. Of which some are lucky and move upwards, driving demand for devs. I like to call such companies and tools facilitators. The more, the easier for non tech people to enter the digital business world, and the more demand for developers.