4 ms·

US gov uses a non-partisan third party think tank to officially declare recessions.

Jensson 4y ago
> a non-partisan third party think tank How can such a thing possibly be non-partisan? The people running surely vote in the elections and thus care about the outcome, I don't see how they couldn't be partisan when their statements can have huge effects on the outcome.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Non-partisan usually means people aren't directly influenced by political leadership. Pelosi has no recourse if NBER doesn't make the decision that she wants, whereas, she can punish/reward the junior Congresspeople in her party by withholding seats or funding for election campaigns. Thus, NBER is non-partisan while Democratic Congresspeople are partisan. I would hope that every member of NBER votes. It's their civic duty.
  - Jensson 4y ago
    In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the election? It depends on what kind of people sit there, but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how that statement gives us a good reason to believe that they aren't taking one side here.
    - tomrod 4y ago
      Economists don't favor democrats but rather seek reality, and the argument that conservative viewpoints are somehow not present in universities, especially in economics departments where Marxists econ profs and Austrian econ profs dine at the same tables and chair the same candidates, is both hilarious to people who have lived experience there and somewhat sad for those same because to communicate reality to folks espousing the silliness that conservatism is under attack at universities is not worth the effort. Truly a shame. Dinner parties are ruined by similar conversations around religion and politics, yet neither matter when the grill is ready.
      - throwawaylinux 4y ago
        How dare you accuse a marxist economist of seeking reality.
        tomrod 4y ago
        Right? The umbrage! Yet, I cannot deny their existence no more than I can deny that Linux is a superior operating system due to its open nature.
      - barry-cotter 4y ago
        One of your professional colleagues disagrees, feeling that academia generally is partisan https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=... and that economics in particular is too https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-organization.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-... Economics is less partisan than any other social science, with only three times as many Democrats as Republicans but academia in general is merrily burning its reputation for truth seeking and Economics won’t escape. Not being as bad as psychology or sociology where all conservative academics could meet in a small lecture theatre is a low bar. https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_political_affiliations_of_elite_liberal_arts_college_faculty https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_p...
        tomrod 4y ago
        I once belonged to a cult. I am no longer in it. It was an organization that preferred its version of reality in spite of evidence. It doesn't perform well among educated folks. Would you argue that a cult that loses members as they gain knowledge and alternative mental models should be protected from the savagery of educated minds due to its loss of adherents? I'll answer my rhetorical because it's important you understand: no. John's (and I'd probably be on firm footing to assume your) presumption here is that political affiliation automatically means discriminatory bias and inherent exercises in partisanship. I wouldn't call it a universally bad assumption, but it's also likely not a terribly consistent one across the universe of universities and colleges. I'm glad you recognize that Economics has a more even partisan distribution than some other fields in social science. Many fields are. Props to the University of Austin, which John lauds. May they prove to be a bastion of freedom of thought that stands as vanguard against the cravenness that represents itself as the modern marriage of business conservatives, theocrats, and the eat-the-rich contingent, as well as freedom of thought from all other attacks, whether perceived or real. Note too: the academy has been attacked before, many times. No matter. Ultimately it converges back to the form of a tenured faculty supported be benefactors in the pursuit of knowledge, even and especially when that goes against their benefactors' preferred version of reality. Fields occasionally ossify and lose value, to be replaced one death at a time, but like writing, speech, and real analysis, the academic model is akin to toothpaste and its relationship to the toothpaste tube. Good luck out there.
kyleblarson 4y ago
If you believe there exists a "non partisan third party think tank" I have a bridge to sell you in Arizona.
- plasticchris 4y ago
  London bridge?
  - jonathankoren 4y ago
    Is it for sale again? :) https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-arizona https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-a...
  - pcthrowaway 4y ago
    I assume they're talking about the Brooklyn Bridge: https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bridge-twice-a-week-for-30-years/ https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bri...
tomrod 4y ago
Like the Fed with the 1980 election, non-partisan semi-governmental groups prefer to not make themselves to blame for election outcomes and risk inane increases to oversight by legislators.
rufus_foreman 4y ago
Third parties aren't official.
csomar 4y ago
It seems the two quarter definition is British? From Wikipedia > In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. So, technically, the US is in recession in the UK.
whoIsYou 4y ago
Oh my sweet summer child...

> a non-partisan third party think tank How can such a thing possibly be non-partisan? The people running surely vote in the elections and thus care about the outcome, I don't see how they couldn't be partisan when their statements can have huge effects on the outcome.

mywittyname 4y ago
Non-partisan usually means people aren't directly influenced by political leadership. Pelosi has no recourse if NBER doesn't make the decision that she wants, whereas, she can punish/reward the junior Congresspeople in her party by withholding seats or funding for election campaigns. Thus, NBER is non-partisan while Democratic Congresspeople are partisan. I would hope that every member of NBER votes. It's their civic duty.
- Jensson 4y ago
  In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the election? It depends on what kind of people sit there, but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how that statement gives us a good reason to believe that they aren't taking one side here.
  - tomrod 4y ago
    Economists don't favor democrats but rather seek reality, and the argument that conservative viewpoints are somehow not present in universities, especially in economics departments where Marxists econ profs and Austrian econ profs dine at the same tables and chair the same candidates, is both hilarious to people who have lived experience there and somewhat sad for those same because to communicate reality to folks espousing the silliness that conservatism is under attack at universities is not worth the effort. Truly a shame. Dinner parties are ruined by similar conversations around religion and politics, yet neither matter when the grill is ready.
    - throwawaylinux 4y ago
      How dare you accuse a marxist economist of seeking reality.
      - tomrod 4y ago
        Right? The umbrage! Yet, I cannot deny their existence no more than I can deny that Linux is a superior operating system due to its open nature.
    - barry-cotter 4y ago
      One of your professional colleagues disagrees, feeling that academia generally is partisan https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=... and that economics in particular is too https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-organization.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-... Economics is less partisan than any other social science, with only three times as many Democrats as Republicans but academia in general is merrily burning its reputation for truth seeking and Economics won’t escape. Not being as bad as psychology or sociology where all conservative academics could meet in a small lecture theatre is a low bar. https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_political_affiliations_of_elite_liberal_arts_college_faculty https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_p...
      - tomrod 4y ago
        I once belonged to a cult. I am no longer in it. It was an organization that preferred its version of reality in spite of evidence. It doesn't perform well among educated folks. Would you argue that a cult that loses members as they gain knowledge and alternative mental models should be protected from the savagery of educated minds due to its loss of adherents? I'll answer my rhetorical because it's important you understand: no. John's (and I'd probably be on firm footing to assume your) presumption here is that political affiliation automatically means discriminatory bias and inherent exercises in partisanship. I wouldn't call it a universally bad assumption, but it's also likely not a terribly consistent one across the universe of universities and colleges. I'm glad you recognize that Economics has a more even partisan distribution than some other fields in social science. Many fields are. Props to the University of Austin, which John lauds. May they prove to be a bastion of freedom of thought that stands as vanguard against the cravenness that represents itself as the modern marriage of business conservatives, theocrats, and the eat-the-rich contingent, as well as freedom of thought from all other attacks, whether perceived or real. Note too: the academy has been attacked before, many times. No matter. Ultimately it converges back to the form of a tenured faculty supported be benefactors in the pursuit of knowledge, even and especially when that goes against their benefactors' preferred version of reality. Fields occasionally ossify and lose value, to be replaced one death at a time, but like writing, speech, and real analysis, the academic model is akin to toothpaste and its relationship to the toothpaste tube. Good luck out there.

kyleblarson 4y ago

If you believe there exists a "non partisan third party think tank" I have a bridge to sell you in Arizona.

plasticchris 4y ago
London bridge?
- jonathankoren 4y ago
  Is it for sale again? :) https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-arizona https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-a...
- pcthrowaway 4y ago
  I assume they're talking about the Brooklyn Bridge: https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bridge-twice-a-week-for-30-years/ https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bri...

tomrod 4y ago

Like the Fed with the 1980 election, non-partisan semi-governmental groups prefer to not make themselves to blame for election outcomes and risk inane increases to oversight by legislators.

rufus_foreman 4y ago

Third parties aren't official.

csomar 4y ago

It seems the two quarter definition is British? From Wikipedia > In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. So, technically, the US is in recession in the UK.

whoIsYou 4y ago

Oh my sweet summer child...