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I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive quarters definition, then you would be saying that we were in a recession, and are now out of one. Thir
by mywittyname 4y ago
I mean, if you're going to stick to the two-consecutive quarters definition, then you would be saying that we were in a recession, and are now out of one. Third quarter GDP estimates stand at 1.9% growth.
- sieabahlpark 4y agoEstimates or reported? The recession based on two consecutive quarters is on reports not estimates of what is to be reported.
- mywittyname 4y agoReported as of current monthly figures. Estimates are even higher. Keep in mind that the "two consecutive quarters" is just snapshots of the monthly data at 3 month marks. They get revised over time. It's completely possible that data from Q2 will be revised upwards and there won't be two consecutive quarters of negative GPD in the future. The Q2 data has already been revised upwards once.
- zeroonetwothree 4y agoGDPNow has it at 2.9% even
- rjcjvyd77 4y agoThen we are out of recession? Find a new word for whatever you're describing because the rest of us are speaking the same language.
- pishpash 4y agoThat's too noisy given inflation is 6.6%.
- RC_ITR 4y agoReal GDP We've only recently seen nominal GDP declines in 2008 and 2020.
- pishpash 4y agoI know it's real GDP. I'm saying this number is noisier when inflation is high because you only ever measure nominal GDP and then deflate.
- RC_ITR 4y agoWell what don't you believe because you're using 6.6% inflation as your reason for skepticism, but that's what GDP is deflated by?
- lmm 4y agoThey believe the error bar on that inflation number must be pretty wide, presumably.
- RC_ITR 4y agoBut by that logic, error bars increased because the number went up? Idk if that’s how statistics works.
- ivalm 4y agoErrors in counting generally go as square root of the count. So yes, as number goes up so does the deviation.
- RC_ITR 4y agoInflation readings being higher have nothing to do with a higher count. Exact same amount of data points for inputs as 2% inflation.
- ivalm 4y agoIt’s not about the amount of measurement points, uncertainties in dollar amounts tend to scale as sqrt. When you error propagate that you see that inflation uncertainty scales with inflation. Very simple model Inflation=v1/v2 D(inflation)=sqrt((D(v1)/v2)^2+(v1/v2^2 D(v2))^2) Suppose D(v1)=c sqrt(v1) D(v2)=c sqrt(v2) D(inflation)=c sqrt(v1/v2^2+v1^2/v2^3)= c sqrt(inflation+inflation^2)/sqrt(v2) So can be seen that the leading term for uncertainty in inflation is linear with inflation.