5 ms·

This is a pointless battle. There is a US election this year so there is zero chance a recession will be admitted until mid November regardless of facts on the

This is a pointless battle. There is a US election this year so there is zero chance a recession will be admitted until mid November regardless of facts on the ground.

colinmhayes 4y ago
US gov uses a non-partisan third party think tank to officially declare recessions.
- Jensson 4y ago
  > a non-partisan third party think tank How can such a thing possibly be non-partisan? The people running surely vote in the elections and thus care about the outcome, I don't see how they couldn't be partisan when their statements can have huge effects on the outcome.
  - mywittyname 4y ago
    Non-partisan usually means people aren't directly influenced by political leadership. Pelosi has no recourse if NBER doesn't make the decision that she wants, whereas, she can punish/reward the junior Congresspeople in her party by withholding seats or funding for election campaigns. Thus, NBER is non-partisan while Democratic Congresspeople are partisan. I would hope that every member of NBER votes. It's their civic duty.
    - Jensson 4y ago
      In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the election? It depends on what kind of people sit there, but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how that statement gives us a good reason to believe that they aren't taking one side here.
      - tomrod 4y ago
        Economists don't favor democrats but rather seek reality, and the argument that conservative viewpoints are somehow not present in universities, especially in economics departments where Marxists econ profs and Austrian econ profs dine at the same tables and chair the same candidates, is both hilarious to people who have lived experience there and somewhat sad for those same because to communicate reality to folks espousing the silliness that conservatism is under attack at universities is not worth the effort. Truly a shame. Dinner parties are ruined by similar conversations around religion and politics, yet neither matter when the grill is ready.
        throwawaylinux 4y ago
        How dare you accuse a marxist economist of seeking reality.
        tomrod 4y ago
        Right? The umbrage! Yet, I cannot deny their existence no more than I can deny that Linux is a superior operating system due to its open nature.
        barry-cotter 4y ago
        One of your professional colleagues disagrees, feeling that academia generally is partisan https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=... and that economics in particular is too https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-organization.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-... Economics is less partisan than any other social science, with only three times as many Democrats as Republicans but academia in general is merrily burning its reputation for truth seeking and Economics won’t escape. Not being as bad as psychology or sociology where all conservative academics could meet in a small lecture theatre is a low bar. https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_political_affiliations_of_elite_liberal_arts_college_faculty https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_p...
- kyleblarson 4y ago
  If you believe there exists a "non partisan third party think tank" I have a bridge to sell you in Arizona.
  - plasticchris 4y ago
    London bridge?
    - jonathankoren 4y ago
      Is it for sale again? :) https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-arizona https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-a...
    - pcthrowaway 4y ago
      I assume they're talking about the Brooklyn Bridge: https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bridge-twice-a-week-for-30-years/ https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bri...
- tomrod 4y ago
  Like the Fed with the 1980 election, non-partisan semi-governmental groups prefer to not make themselves to blame for election outcomes and risk inane increases to oversight by legislators.
- rufus_foreman 4y ago
  Third parties aren't official.
- csomar 4y ago
  It seems the two quarter definition is British? From Wikipedia > In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. So, technically, the US is in recession in the UK.
- whoIsYou 4y ago
  Oh my sweet summer child...
mywittyname 4y ago
Data for Q3 will be released on Oct 27 (before the election). And current estimates for ~2.0% growth. Thus, the country will technically be "out of a recession" by election time. I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has recovered come Oct 28.
- daveevad 4y ago
  > I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has recovered come Oct 28. I absolutely will - that's the whole point of any technical argument.
- WillPostForFood 4y ago
  Estimates for Q2 were for 2.3% growth, and were wrong. Thus, you actually don't know if the country will be out of recession until the real numbers come out. Maybe wait for the actual numbers before worrying about your opponents reaction? https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2022 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d...

This is a pointless battle. There is a US election this year so there is zero chance a recession will be admitted until mid November regardless of facts on the ground.

colinmhayes 4y ago

US gov uses a non-partisan third party think tank to officially declare recessions.

Jensson 4y ago
> a non-partisan third party think tank How can such a thing possibly be non-partisan? The people running surely vote in the elections and thus care about the outcome, I don't see how they couldn't be partisan when their statements can have huge effects on the outcome.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  Non-partisan usually means people aren't directly influenced by political leadership. Pelosi has no recourse if NBER doesn't make the decision that she wants, whereas, she can punish/reward the junior Congresspeople in her party by withholding seats or funding for election campaigns. Thus, NBER is non-partisan while Democratic Congresspeople are partisan. I would hope that every member of NBER votes. It's their civic duty.
  - Jensson 4y ago
    In that case why wouldn't they try to influence the election? It depends on what kind of people sit there, but most academics favor democrats. So I don't see how that statement gives us a good reason to believe that they aren't taking one side here.
    - tomrod 4y ago
      Economists don't favor democrats but rather seek reality, and the argument that conservative viewpoints are somehow not present in universities, especially in economics departments where Marxists econ profs and Austrian econ profs dine at the same tables and chair the same candidates, is both hilarious to people who have lived experience there and somewhat sad for those same because to communicate reality to folks espousing the silliness that conservatism is under attack at universities is not worth the effort. Truly a shame. Dinner parties are ruined by similar conversations around religion and politics, yet neither matter when the grill is ready.
      - throwawaylinux 4y ago
        How dare you accuse a marxist economist of seeking reality.
        tomrod 4y ago
        Right? The umbrage! Yet, I cannot deny their existence no more than I can deny that Linux is a superior operating system due to its open nature.
      - barry-cotter 4y ago
        One of your professional colleagues disagrees, feeling that academia generally is partisan https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/07/woke-week.html?m=... and that economics in particular is too https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-organization.html?m=1 https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-... Economics is less partisan than any other social science, with only three times as many Democrats as Republicans but academia in general is merrily burning its reputation for truth seeking and Economics won’t escape. Not being as bad as psychology or sociology where all conservative academics could meet in a small lecture theatre is a low bar. https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_political_affiliations_of_elite_liberal_arts_college_faculty https://www.nas.org/academic-questions/31/2/homogenous_the_p...
kyleblarson 4y ago
If you believe there exists a "non partisan third party think tank" I have a bridge to sell you in Arizona.
- plasticchris 4y ago
  London bridge?
  - jonathankoren 4y ago
    Is it for sale again? :) https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-arizona https://www.history.com/news/how-london-bridge-ended-up-in-a...
  - pcthrowaway 4y ago
    I assume they're talking about the Brooklyn Bridge: https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bridge-twice-a-week-for-30-years/ https://www.blogtyrant.com/the-man-who-sold-the-brooklyn-bri...
tomrod 4y ago
Like the Fed with the 1980 election, non-partisan semi-governmental groups prefer to not make themselves to blame for election outcomes and risk inane increases to oversight by legislators.
rufus_foreman 4y ago
Third parties aren't official.
csomar 4y ago
It seems the two quarter definition is British? From Wikipedia > In the United Kingdom, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. So, technically, the US is in recession in the UK.
whoIsYou 4y ago
Oh my sweet summer child...

mywittyname 4y ago

Data for Q3 will be released on Oct 27 (before the election). And current estimates for ~2.0% growth. Thus, the country will technically be "out of a recession" by election time. I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has recovered come Oct 28.

daveevad 4y ago
> I wonder if these people claiming that we are "technically in a recession" will suddenly start saying that economy has recovered come Oct 28. I absolutely will - that's the whole point of any technical argument.
WillPostForFood 4y ago
Estimates for Q2 were for 2.3% growth, and were wrong. Thus, you actually don't know if the country will be out of recession until the real numbers come out. Maybe wait for the actual numbers before worrying about your opponents reaction? https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2022 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d...