I definitely don't think that's the only factor and the correlation isn't 1:1 so you can't necessarily cherry pick 3 states and say the trend doesn't exist (but

I definitely don't think that's the only factor and the correlation isn't 1:1 so you can't necessarily cherry pick 3 states and say the trend doesn't exist (but if you do want to cherry pick states, I'd point out that of the states that took a laxer approach to covid, Utah has the lowest obesity rate. They also have a much lower population-adjusted death rate than states like California that took more aggressive measures to flatten the curve over 1-2 years)