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I'm just going to repeat what I said on the last thread on this topic[0]. It's more or less exactly what I'd say to this article as well, modulo only the smalle

I'm just going to repeat what I said on the last thread on this topic[0]. It's more or less exactly what I'd say to this article as well, modulo only the smallest tweaks. --- As somebody who is a sort of self-driving car skeptic myself, even I have to say this kind of over-the-top skepticism is just as silly and absurd as the ridiculous self-driving car hype of the last 10 years or so. OK, so "we" have spent 10 years and $100B on this and it doesn't "fully" work yet. So what? Who said how long it was going to take or how much it was going to cost? This amounts to the little kid in the car screaming "are we there yet? Are we there yet?" The answer is "no", but we are going to get there eventually. That's pretty damn close to inevitable, barring nuclear armageddon or something. So yeah, I'm a skeptic in terms of believing I won't be riding in a fully autonomous self-driving car in the next 10 years. Or maybe 20 years. But 50 years out? 100? 200? 1000? I mean, yeah, it's absolutely going to happen. Remember the old saw "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the short term and underestimate the change that will occur in the long term. People overestimate what can be done in one year, and underestimate what can be done in ten."[1] [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33168233 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33168233 [1]: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/

Cheyana 4y ago
"People overestimate what can be done in one year, and underestimate what can be done in ten." Yeah, it's definitely playing out with this technology. Remember just a few years back when they said there were babies being born that will never have to learn to drive. My daughter was born in 2016 and at this rate I'm fairly certain that in 10 years she will be going for her learner's permit.
autoexec 4y ago
> I won't be riding in a fully autonomous self-driving car in the next 10 years. Or maybe 20 years. But 50 years out? 100? 200? 1000? I mean, yeah, it's absolutely going to happen. If it's not going to happen without major advances in technology, does it make sense for companies to be dumping billions of dollars into it today? Does it make since to continue endangering the public by beta testing these failed systems on our streets? Sure, in 100 years it'll happen, but it is starting to look like we can save a lot of money, suffering, and energy by admitting where our current limitations are and backing off until technology advances a bit. The only "benefit" I see in continuing now is that by the time cars that actually drive themselves are viable outside of limited/perfect conditions there will already have been plenty of lawsuits against car makers for accidents, deaths, hacks, and privacy issues. I'm not sure how well much of the laws and verdicts will fit with the systems we end up with in 100 years though or that it's ideal to constrain that future tech with the legal/regulatory fallout of today's failures.
- garaetjjte 4y ago
  You won't get major advances in technology without dumping billions into it.
  - autoexec 4y ago
    How much of the current sensor technology being used was created by self-driving car companies? AI and computer vision systems are already being researched/developed in other industries, what else are these companies producing that hasn't been done before or isn't being done elsewhere?
    - profile53 4y ago
      Don’t quote me but I’m pretty sure the LIDAR sensor for most phone cameras exists entirely because of self driving cars. They drove the miniaturization of LIDAR sensors and the development of solid state LIDAR.
- mindcrime 4y ago
  If it's not going to happen without major advances in technology, does it make sense for companies to be dumping billions of dollars into it today? Good question. But it's up to those companies to decide. It's not my money, so I'm not going to try to tell them what to do. Does it make since to continue endangering the public by beta testing these failed systems on our streets? That's also a good question. At the very least, it needs to be made abundantly clear to anyone testing a self-driving car that somebody at the company will be held personally liable, up to and including possibly serving jail time, with regards to any damage / deaths caused by accidents.

Cheyana 4y ago

"People overestimate what can be done in one year, and underestimate what can be done in ten." Yeah, it's definitely playing out with this technology. Remember just a few years back when they said there were babies being born that will never have to learn to drive. My daughter was born in 2016 and at this rate I'm fairly certain that in 10 years she will be going for her learner's permit.

autoexec 4y ago

> I won't be riding in a fully autonomous self-driving car in the next 10 years. Or maybe 20 years. But 50 years out? 100? 200? 1000? I mean, yeah, it's absolutely going to happen. If it's not going to happen without major advances in technology, does it make sense for companies to be dumping billions of dollars into it today? Does it make since to continue endangering the public by beta testing these failed systems on our streets? Sure, in 100 years it'll happen, but it is starting to look like we can save a lot of money, suffering, and energy by admitting where our current limitations are and backing off until technology advances a bit. The only "benefit" I see in continuing now is that by the time cars that actually drive themselves are viable outside of limited/perfect conditions there will already have been plenty of lawsuits against car makers for accidents, deaths, hacks, and privacy issues. I'm not sure how well much of the laws and verdicts will fit with the systems we end up with in 100 years though or that it's ideal to constrain that future tech with the legal/regulatory fallout of today's failures.

garaetjjte 4y ago
You won't get major advances in technology without dumping billions into it.
- autoexec 4y ago
  How much of the current sensor technology being used was created by self-driving car companies? AI and computer vision systems are already being researched/developed in other industries, what else are these companies producing that hasn't been done before or isn't being done elsewhere?
  - profile53 4y ago
    Don’t quote me but I’m pretty sure the LIDAR sensor for most phone cameras exists entirely because of self driving cars. They drove the miniaturization of LIDAR sensors and the development of solid state LIDAR.
mindcrime 4y ago
If it's not going to happen without major advances in technology, does it make sense for companies to be dumping billions of dollars into it today? Good question. But it's up to those companies to decide. It's not my money, so I'm not going to try to tell them what to do. Does it make since to continue endangering the public by beta testing these failed systems on our streets? That's also a good question. At the very least, it needs to be made abundantly clear to anyone testing a self-driving car that somebody at the company will be held personally liable, up to and including possibly serving jail time, with regards to any damage / deaths caused by accidents.