The problem with a year out projection is there are many FOMC meetings and time for markets to move around in that time. Indeed, markets can react so harshly th

The problem with a year out projection is there are many FOMC meetings and time for markets to move around in that time. Indeed, markets can react so harshly that the Fed stops seeing the inflation they're worried about and even may start to worry about deflation - though this definitely seems highly unlikely right now. You can see this happening in the monthly cycle of market valuations being down when the market finds out about market indicators then slightly up in later periods once the market corrects its overcorrection. Ultimately modernity never saw a covid-19 before 2020 and is still in the post-reaction phase to it. 1918 happened in the midst of WWI and took several years to return to normalcy. (Notably, the 1920s were known as the "roaring 20s" until October 1929.) I wish people would review all the history of the first half of the 1900s. There were multiple depressions in the 19-00s that helped create the conditions for WWI - which then created conditions for the 1918 pandemic - which then created conditions for the euphoric 1920s (and hyper inflation in Germany?) - which then created the conditions for the Great Depression and the rise of actual, violent fascism in USSR/Italy/Nazi Germany - which of course led to WWII and so on. (Notably that period of time is not exactly 'wonderful' for the USA.) and Spain had a violent civil war in there.