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> You can’t argue about a zero social distancing world based on data from countries that implemented social distancing. You can very easily argue that the miti

> You can’t argue about a zero social distancing world based on data from countries that implemented social distancing. You can very easily argue that the mitigations we put in place were based on the theory that Covid only had a droplet based spread, like the flu. The problem is that Covid is fully airborne, like measles, so the mitigations we put into place were ineffective. Social distancing is a good example: A person infected with a virus that has a droplet based spread will spray out droplets when they cough or sneeze and those droplets will fall to the ground within six feet of their emission. An airborne virus is emitted by people even when they are just breathing normally, and can stay suspended in the air for hours. An airborne virus will spread throughout an enclosed space. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00925-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00925-7

Retric 4y ago
Your argument falls apart when you consider closing down movie theaters and schools stops both. The initial version of COVID was airborne but didn’t spread that fast compared to say measles so it didn’t take much to bring transmission below replacement rate in most areas. More recent versions are more easily transmissible but are dealing with higher levels of immunity due to vaccination and prior exposure. When modeling such repeated outbreaks people who where at the highest risk for transmission due to coming into contact with others regularly where also the first to gain immunity from less easily transmissible strains.
- GeekyBear 4y ago
  Your argument falls apart when you remember that the mitigations we put into place were highly effective against the Flu, which does have a droplet based spread, but were completely ineffective at stopping the spread of Covid, which continued to spread like wildfire. >CDC says seasonal flu cases hit record lows around the world https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/cdc-says-seasonal-flu-cases-hit-record-lows-around-world-n1240333 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/cdc-says-seasona... > COVID may have pushed a leading seasonal flu strain to extinction https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushe...
  - Retric 4y ago
    Being effective for the flu doesn’t prevent them from being less effective but still critical for COVID. Multiple COVID trackers shows a response to COVID mitigation strategies and their removal well outside of seasonal trends. Demonstrating unsurprisingly that transmission goes down when people spend less time around each other.
    - GeekyBear 4y ago
      The thing that keeps six feet of social distancing from being effective against Covid is that the virus floats in the air for hours. The initial theory on how Covid spreads was just wrong. Following the science requires that you be capable of changing your mind when you have proof that you were wrong.
      - Retric 4y ago
        The science shows mitigation strategies worked, though they didn’t all work equally well. Here’s one literature review: “Public health interventions and non-pharmaceutical measurements were effective in decreasing the transmission of COVID-19. The included studies showed that travel restrictions, borders measures, quarantine of travellers arriving from affected countries, city lockdown, restrictions of mass gathering, isolation and quarantine of confirmed cases and close contacts, social distancing measures, compulsory mask wearing, contact tracing and testing, school closures and personal protective equipment use among health workers were effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/ As to standing six feet apart. It’s true that COVID didn’t need droplets, but it could still make use of them. There is a concept of viral load during transmission because the human immune system is much more effective stopping a single virus from infection someone than 10,000 of them. Non specific immune responses don’t provide lasting immunity but they do prevent the vast majority of infection that cross surface barriers from having a noticeable impact.
        GeekyBear 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

Your argument falls apart when you consider closing down movie theaters and schools stops both. The initial version of COVID was airborne but didn’t spread that fast compared to say measles so it didn’t take much to bring transmission below replacement rate in most areas. More recent versions are more easily transmissible but are dealing with higher levels of immunity due to vaccination and prior exposure. When modeling such repeated outbreaks people who where at the highest risk for transmission due to coming into contact with others regularly where also the first to gain immunity from less easily transmissible strains.

GeekyBear 4y ago
Your argument falls apart when you remember that the mitigations we put into place were highly effective against the Flu, which does have a droplet based spread, but were completely ineffective at stopping the spread of Covid, which continued to spread like wildfire. >CDC says seasonal flu cases hit record lows around the world https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/cdc-says-seasonal-flu-cases-hit-record-lows-around-world-n1240333 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cold-and-flu/cdc-says-seasona... > COVID may have pushed a leading seasonal flu strain to extinction https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushe...
- Retric 4y ago
  Being effective for the flu doesn’t prevent them from being less effective but still critical for COVID. Multiple COVID trackers shows a response to COVID mitigation strategies and their removal well outside of seasonal trends. Demonstrating unsurprisingly that transmission goes down when people spend less time around each other.
  - GeekyBear 4y ago
    The thing that keeps six feet of social distancing from being effective against Covid is that the virus floats in the air for hours. The initial theory on how Covid spreads was just wrong. Following the science requires that you be capable of changing your mind when you have proof that you were wrong.
    - Retric 4y ago
      The science shows mitigation strategies worked, though they didn’t all work equally well. Here’s one literature review: “Public health interventions and non-pharmaceutical measurements were effective in decreasing the transmission of COVID-19. The included studies showed that travel restrictions, borders measures, quarantine of travellers arriving from affected countries, city lockdown, restrictions of mass gathering, isolation and quarantine of confirmed cases and close contacts, social distancing measures, compulsory mask wearing, contact tracing and testing, school closures and personal protective equipment use among health workers were effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/ As to standing six feet apart. It’s true that COVID didn’t need droplets, but it could still make use of them. There is a concept of viral load during transmission because the human immune system is much more effective stopping a single virus from infection someone than 10,000 of them. Non specific immune responses don’t provide lasting immunity but they do prevent the vast majority of infection that cross surface barriers from having a noticeable impact.
      - GeekyBear 4y ago