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We entered a recession at the start of this quarter.
by polski-g 4y ago
We entered a recession at the start of this quarter.
- ac29 4y agoA recession hasn't been declared yet (though may be in the future, retroactively including parts of this year). Laypersons often define it as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, which has happened, but that is not the official definition in the US. The actual definition is more complex, and includes things like unemployment levels, which are at generational lows.
- seti0Cha 4y agoThis argument always goes the same way, yet for some reason I don't think I've seen it all the way to the end. Let supply the next part: The notion of an "official" definition, and that it must be "declared" were introduced when the prior definition indicated a recession and the powers that be either did not want to admit there was one, or did not think this one should really qualify. Ok, that's part 3. Somebody supply part 4.
- polski-g 4y ago> Laypersons often define it as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth No. No they do not. The official definition is 2 quarters -- the layperson defines it to be whatever they feel like.
- jlmorton 4y agoThis argument over the binary question of whether we are, or not, in a recession is so strange. If we are, it's the strangest recession I've ever encountered, with sky-high, record levels of job openings, rising wages, lots of robust job growth, expanding manufacturing, rising prices, product shortages, etc. There are a lot of headwinds, and the business cycle indeed seems to have turned down. Based on rising rates, reduced credit, and an increasing trend of layoffs, I bet we are indeed heading into a recession. But it sure does not feel like it currently.