4 ms·

If you compare CA vs FL, FL only has a 10% higher age adjusted population mortality rate from covid. This indicates that some the strictest covid measures in t

If you compare CA vs FL, FL only has a 10% higher age adjusted population mortality rate from covid. This indicates that some the strictest covid measures in the US made little difference vs the laxest. You can point to other countries if you want, and you would be right, but the type of strict measures that China used to stop the virus are not remotely politically possible in the US (and thank god they aren't). source: https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-adjusted-covid-deaths/ https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Retric 4y ago
The US healthcare system moved resources around to respond to more critical areas. As such things are less independent than you are suggesting. That said, look at the worst states on that list and you will notice a trend. Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Alabama aren’t the states with extremely high density cities like NYC with the highest natural transmission rates, they are the states that failed.
- Rebelgecko 4y ago
  It's definitely a trend that states with higher rates of obesity and hypertension have higher death rates. But since those are known comorbidities, not particularly surprising.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Mississippi and WV had obesity rates of 39.5% in 2018, yet Mississippi was 476 where WV was 364 so something else is going on. Especially when you consider Delaware’s 33.5% obesity in 2018 somehow only resulted in 289. Turns out states with stronger responses had better results independent of what population density and demographics would suggest.
    - Rebelgecko 4y ago
      I definitely don't think that's the only factor and the correlation isn't 1:1 so you can't necessarily cherry pick 3 states and say the trend doesn't exist (but if you do want to cherry pick states, I'd point out that of the states that took a laxer approach to covid, Utah has the lowest obesity rate. They also have a much lower population-adjusted death rate than states like California that took more aggressive measures to flatten the curve over 1-2 years)
- fallingknife 4y ago
  I'm not convinced that density is a major factor in covid mortality as outdoor transmission is minimal, and the virus was able to spread effectively throughout the population even in low density areas. (I could be convinced by good data, but I haven't seen any on this) Also density measurement is hard. Does Utah count as "dense?" If you look at pop density by state it is near the bottom, but almost all of that population is crammed into a small area near Salt Lake City. Similar situation in Nevada.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Density does correlate to spread, but only across relatively small areas of land. Averaging across a state as you say can result in misleading results. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of_population_density_on_epidemics https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of...
jliptzin 4y ago
You’re assuming everyone actually obeyed the restrictions which is a pretty funny assumption. It only takes one person in a household to go to a gathering that wasn’t supposed to happen (and there were plenty of those) and then come back and get everyone else sick. In any case that 10% is ~10,000 people saved. For the brief period of time when people largely followed the restrictions I feel like that is a good ROI. That’s 3 September 11ths, what did we sacrifice trying to avoid another one of those?
- fallingknife 4y ago
  If we are not willing to enforce the restrictions to the point that they will be effective in carrying out their intended purpose, then there should be no such restrictions. Three 911's is meaningless to compare because the response is so much different. A better comparison would be 0.2 bad flu seasons. Because no one ever wore a mask during a bad flu season, not to mention any of the actually relevant and economically damaging measures taken to stop covid.
  - jliptzin 4y ago
    "Because no one ever wore a mask during a bad flu season" Not true - picture from 1918 https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/12/17/USAT/bbeb7dc2-2df4-4389-8840-738b14994f8d-cmlpl_000402_access.jpg?width=1320&height=816&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/12/17/USAT/bbeb7dc2-... Also, a million people out of the labor force because they're dead seems like it would have a negative economic impact
- rayiner 4y ago
  If you look at the absolute carnage at school test scores it was not a good ROI. We sacrificed the well being of the young for the lives of the old.
  - themitigating 4y ago
    Should we redirect the money given to medicare and social security to families?
vkou 4y ago
'Some of the strictest control measures' is not how I would describe life for anyone in, say, the Central Valley. Maybe people in the major coastal cities actually followed any of the difficult-to-enforce restrictions [1], but I can't say the same for the three quarters of America that is rural or suburban. [1] Obviously, when schools are closed, that's a restriction you have no choice in following.
themitigating 4y ago
States have different density distributions and people movement. It's impossible to compare any state to another
- fallingknife 4y ago
  If you had asked me in 2019 for a prediction of what would happen if there had been a pandemic and one state followed CDC advice, and another said "fuck it, we're not doing anything," I would have said that the state that followed the expert guidance would have a dramatically better outcome. The fact that it didn't happen is very significant. If you want to say that actually what CA did was effective, and the differences are all based on density/movement differences, then then you need to provide evidence. You can't just handwave it away by pointing to a possible factor.
  - themitigating 4y ago
    I need to provide evidence that states have different densities of population distribution and that covid is spread via close contact?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

Retric 4y ago

The US healthcare system moved resources around to respond to more critical areas. As such things are less independent than you are suggesting. That said, look at the worst states on that list and you will notice a trend. Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Alabama aren’t the states with extremely high density cities like NYC with the highest natural transmission rates, they are the states that failed.

Rebelgecko 4y ago
It's definitely a trend that states with higher rates of obesity and hypertension have higher death rates. But since those are known comorbidities, not particularly surprising.
- Retric 4y ago
  Mississippi and WV had obesity rates of 39.5% in 2018, yet Mississippi was 476 where WV was 364 so something else is going on. Especially when you consider Delaware’s 33.5% obesity in 2018 somehow only resulted in 289. Turns out states with stronger responses had better results independent of what population density and demographics would suggest.
  - Rebelgecko 4y ago
    I definitely don't think that's the only factor and the correlation isn't 1:1 so you can't necessarily cherry pick 3 states and say the trend doesn't exist (but if you do want to cherry pick states, I'd point out that of the states that took a laxer approach to covid, Utah has the lowest obesity rate. They also have a much lower population-adjusted death rate than states like California that took more aggressive measures to flatten the curve over 1-2 years)
fallingknife 4y ago
I'm not convinced that density is a major factor in covid mortality as outdoor transmission is minimal, and the virus was able to spread effectively throughout the population even in low density areas. (I could be convinced by good data, but I haven't seen any on this) Also density measurement is hard. Does Utah count as "dense?" If you look at pop density by state it is near the bottom, but almost all of that population is crammed into a small area near Salt Lake City. Similar situation in Nevada.
- Retric 4y ago
  Density does correlate to spread, but only across relatively small areas of land. Averaging across a state as you say can result in misleading results. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of_population_density_on_epidemics https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323722513_Effect_of...

jliptzin 4y ago

You’re assuming everyone actually obeyed the restrictions which is a pretty funny assumption. It only takes one person in a household to go to a gathering that wasn’t supposed to happen (and there were plenty of those) and then come back and get everyone else sick. In any case that 10% is ~10,000 people saved. For the brief period of time when people largely followed the restrictions I feel like that is a good ROI. That’s 3 September 11ths, what did we sacrifice trying to avoid another one of those?

fallingknife 4y ago
If we are not willing to enforce the restrictions to the point that they will be effective in carrying out their intended purpose, then there should be no such restrictions. Three 911's is meaningless to compare because the response is so much different. A better comparison would be 0.2 bad flu seasons. Because no one ever wore a mask during a bad flu season, not to mention any of the actually relevant and economically damaging measures taken to stop covid.
- jliptzin 4y ago
  "Because no one ever wore a mask during a bad flu season" Not true - picture from 1918 https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/12/17/USAT/bbeb7dc2-2df4-4389-8840-738b14994f8d-cmlpl_000402_access.jpg?width=1320&height=816&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2021/12/17/USAT/bbeb7dc2-... Also, a million people out of the labor force because they're dead seems like it would have a negative economic impact
rayiner 4y ago
If you look at the absolute carnage at school test scores it was not a good ROI. We sacrificed the well being of the young for the lives of the old.
- themitigating 4y ago
  Should we redirect the money given to medicare and social security to families?

vkou 4y ago

'Some of the strictest control measures' is not how I would describe life for anyone in, say, the Central Valley. Maybe people in the major coastal cities actually followed any of the difficult-to-enforce restrictions [1], but I can't say the same for the three quarters of America that is rural or suburban. [1] Obviously, when schools are closed, that's a restriction you have no choice in following.

themitigating 4y ago

States have different density distributions and people movement. It's impossible to compare any state to another

fallingknife 4y ago
If you had asked me in 2019 for a prediction of what would happen if there had been a pandemic and one state followed CDC advice, and another said "fuck it, we're not doing anything," I would have said that the state that followed the expert guidance would have a dramatically better outcome. The fact that it didn't happen is very significant. If you want to say that actually what CA did was effective, and the differences are all based on density/movement differences, then then you need to provide evidence. You can't just handwave it away by pointing to a possible factor.
- themitigating 4y ago
  I need to provide evidence that states have different densities of population distribution and that covid is spread via close contact?