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This is a timely question, given the front-page headline on this morning's WSJ: "U.S. Core Inflation Hit New Four-Decade High Last Month." Here's an excerpt: "

This is a timely question, given the front-page headline on this morning's WSJ: "U.S. Core Inflation Hit New Four-Decade High Last Month." Here's an excerpt: "Prices excluding energy and food rose 6.6% The increase marked the biggest annual rise in core prices since August 1982, a sign that persistent increases are becoming entrenched in the economy. The overall CPI rose 8.2% in September, down slightly from the previous month’s gain." I admit I don't know enough to tease out whatever subtleties you're referencing; can you explain what about this is misleading?

theptip 4y ago
I think the complaint is that the “biggest annual rise” part gets lost/diluted; it is in there but much of the messaging sounds like prices just shot up this month instead of this being a YoY observation. I.e. coverage doesn’t emphasize or analyze that it’s a 12-month trailing average. (And, it could even be going down MoM and still give you a YoY increase if lots of increase happened 6mo ago; that might be the opposite valence of news.) WSJ probably being one of the more technical papers so that’s a best-case version there.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> can you explain what about this is misleading? Core CPI was 280.02 in September 2021 [1]. It was 296.95 in August and just printed at 298.66. Up 6.6% from a year ago and 6.7% annualised from a month ago. Nothing misleading. Regular CPI, which includes commodities like food and energy, was 274.21 in September 2021 [2]. It was 295.62 in August and just printed at 296.76. Up 8.2% from a year ago but 4.6% annualised from a month ago. The difference becomes clearer examining the graphs. Stylistically, core CPI linearly increases. Actual CPI surged before flattening since June (295.328, less than 2% annualised). [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

theptip 4y ago

I think the complaint is that the “biggest annual rise” part gets lost/diluted; it is in there but much of the messaging sounds like prices just shot up this month instead of this being a YoY observation. I.e. coverage doesn’t emphasize or analyze that it’s a 12-month trailing average. (And, it could even be going down MoM and still give you a YoY increase if lots of increase happened 6mo ago; that might be the opposite valence of news.) WSJ probably being one of the more technical papers so that’s a best-case version there.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> can you explain what about this is misleading? Core CPI was 280.02 in September 2021 [1]. It was 296.95 in August and just printed at 298.66. Up 6.6% from a year ago and 6.7% annualised from a month ago. Nothing misleading. Regular CPI, which includes commodities like food and energy, was 274.21 in September 2021 [2]. It was 295.62 in August and just printed at 296.76. Up 8.2% from a year ago but 4.6% annualised from a month ago. The difference becomes clearer examining the graphs. Stylistically, core CPI linearly increases. Actual CPI surged before flattening since June (295.328, less than 2% annualised). [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL