5 ms·
https://totalrealreturns.com/ https://totalrealreturns.com/ has now been updated with this morning's CPI-U data release. It continues to update every night a fe
by compumike 4y ago
https://totalrealreturns.com/ https://totalrealreturns.com/ has now been updated with this morning's CPI-U data release. It continues to update every night a few hours after market close.
On an inflation-adjusted (real return), dividend-reinvested (total return) basis (i.e. in terms of real purchasing power):
Stocks are down -29.6% from their peak on 2022-01-03
Bonds are down -28.3% from their peak on 2021-08-06
Tech stocks are down -39.0% from their peak on 2021-11-19 https://totalrealreturns.com/s/QQQ https://totalrealreturns.com/s/QQQ
In a Bogleheads discussion "How unusual is the current downturn? Actually pretty common." https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=387569 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=387569 it is clarified and discussed that the stocks drawdown is fairly common, while the bonds drawdown is several times worse than the 2002-2003 lows or the 2008-2009 lows.
(This website is my side project, released 3 months ago as "Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Returns" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32081943 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32081943 . I've been slowly implementing many of the requested features from the comments thread...)
- dragontamer 4y agoThere's something horribly buggy about VMFXX going on (Money Market fund). Looks like a good website, but I'd like VMFXX to represent how "money markets" would have done over these timelines! VUSXX (Vanguard's "other" money market fund) is closer to what I expected, but seems to be missing all the dividends/interest rates entirely. ------- For money market funds, it could be that daily-dividends are something that your code wasn't expecting and is bugging out on?
- compumike 4y agoGood catch, thank you! I've investigated and it appears that the data comes in already completely buggy from my upstream data provider, https://eodhistoricaldata.com/ https://eodhistoricaldata.com/ . I will open a support ticket with them! In the meantime, perhaps you can use one of these symbols instead: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MUB,BSV,SHY,VGSH,SCHO,FLTB https://totalrealreturns.com/s/MUB,BSV,SHY,VGSH,SCHO,FLTB
- dragontamer 4y agoI used BIL as my proxy for MMFs Even very conservative funds like SHY aren't quite like a MMF. BIL is very close though. We can see that SHY is negative for the year, while BIL (and "proper" MMFs like VMFXX / VUSXX / etc. etc.) are all positive / better than cash under a mattress. https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SHY,BIL,USDOLLAR https://totalrealreturns.com/s/SHY,BIL,USDOLLAR I'd argue that when most Bogleheads talk about "cash", they're talking about BIL and MMFs. Something between 0 months to 3-months of maturity. ----- I'd still like to see MMFs working of course. I'm sure there's a minor difference between BIL and VMFXX that I haven't though of... but BIL is the closest thing I can think of to a money-market fund.
- compumike 4y agoPerfect, thanks. Shorter duration like BIL makes sense. Ticket filed with upstream data provider... we'll see.